Stimulus Unlikely To Boost Economy In Short Term

预计美国最新版一揽子经济刺激计划对经济的短期支持会减少，经济在年底前走出衰退的可能性也因此降低。美国参众两院谈判代表周三达成的7,895亿美元刺激计划显示，奥巴马政府愿意下调创造或是挽救400万个就业岗位的目标。新计划去掉了向州和地方政府提供的用于防止裁员的部分救助，并降低了给予就业者的税收减免（减税本来意在迅速刺激支出）。新计划将工薪税减免额降低了约20%，至每人400美元或每家800美元。此举削弱了另外一个预计将在今年上半年提振经济的因素。正常情况下，州和地方政府的预算是平衡的，而如今由于收入下滑，它们面临着预算大幅削减的局面。在新的刺激计划中，向州和地方政府提供的救助减少了300多亿美元，至440亿美元。预测公司Economic Outlook Group LLC的鲍莫尔(Bernard Baumohl)说，这是一场严重的衰退，各州的税收锐减，而支出却没有减少。他说，如果各州没有获得足够的资金，它们的预算压力可能会非常大，可能会因此裁员或是缩减服务规模。预测公司Macroeconomic Advisers周三表示，今年第一季度，美国国内生产总值(GDP)的年降幅有可能达到4.9%，大于政府公布的2008年第四季度3.8%的年降幅。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)经济学家曾预测2009年第四季度前失业率将上升至9%。他们说，随着经济急剧下滑，他们预测的失业率可能会提前到来。高盛经济学家麦凯维(Ed McKelvey)说，两位数的失业率明年很可能成为现实。新计划的最大成效将在2009年底至2010年显现。届时预计美国经济已恢复了缓慢增长，不过仍会从支出刺激措施中得益。经济学家说，尽管刺激计划近几周来一直是国会关注的焦点，让银行系统和信贷业恢复健康对恢复经济增长可能更加重要。由于企业担心经济低迷是否会比预期的更严重更持久，借贷的崩溃迫使它们以令人不安的步伐缩减计划裁减人员。IHS Global Insight的经济学家贝休恩(Brian Bethune)说，关键是要恢复企业信心。他说，直到企业信心恢复到让它们准备招聘员工的程度，刺激计划对经济的大部分影响才会感觉得到。Sudeep Reddy相关阅读中国进出口锐减 刺激计划未显功效 2009-02-12国会和白宫就经济刺激计划达成一致 2009-02-12


The latest version of the economic-stimulus package is expected to provide less near-term support for the economy and make it less likely that the economy will pull itself out of recession before late this year.The $789.5 billion deal, reached by House and Senate negotiators Wednesday, indicates the Obama administration was willing to reduce its goal of creating or saving four million jobs. The new plan pares some aid to state and local governments that was aimed at preventing job cuts and reduces tax breaks for workers that were intended to spur quick spending.Reducing the payroll-tax cut for workers by about 20% -- to $400 per individual or $800 per family -- also diminishes another element that was expected to help the economy in the first half of this year.State and local governments, which generally face balanced-budget requirements, are confronting sharp budget cuts as revenues decline. Aid to state and local governments was pared by more than $30 billion, to $44 billion, in the latest stimulus agreement.'This is a severe recession and states' tax revenues have dropped off precipitously while their expenses have not,' said Bernard Baumohl of Economic Outlook Group LLC, a forecasting firm. 'If the states do not get enough funds, they may be under so much budgetary pressure that they may need to engage in layoffs and cut back services.'The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers on Wednesday said gross domestic product is on track to decline at a 4.9% annual rate in the first three months of this year, worse than the annualized 3.8% decline the government reported for the fourth quarter of 2008. With the economy weakening at a rapid pace, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said their forecast for the unemployment rate -- 9% by the fourth quarter of 2009 -- may be reached sooner than expected.'Double-digit unemployment could well be reality sometime next year,' Goldman Sachs economist Ed McKelvey said.The largest effect of the plan would come in late 2009 and into 2010. By then, the economy is expected to have returned to slow growth but still would benefit from the spending boost.While the stimulus plan has been Congress's focus in recent weeks, economists say bringing the banking system and credit sector back to health may be more important to restoring growth.The breakdown in lending is forcing businesses to scale back plans and cut jobs at an alarming pace as they worry whether the downturn will be deeper and longer than they had anticipated.'The key is to get business confidence to come back,' said IHS Global Insight economist Brian Bethune. Most of the economic impact of stimulus won't be felt until 'confidence has been restored to such an extent that businesses are prepared to go out and hire people.'Sudeep Reddy