集合的运算
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A-B = A\bar{B} = A(Ω-B) = AΩ - AB = A-AB
A−B=ABˉ=A(Ω−B)=AΩ−AB=A−AB
事件(集合)的运算规则.jpg
概率的公理化定义
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任何事件的概率 0 ≤ P ( A ) ≤ 1 0 \le P(A) \le 1 0≤P(A)≤1;
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Ω 为 完 备 事 件 组 \Omega 为完备事件组 Ω为完备事件组, P ( Ω ) = 1 P(Ω) = 1 P(Ω)=1;
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互不相容的事件 A 1 , A 2 , . . . A n A_1,A_2, ... A_n A1,A2,...An:
任意两个事件 A i , A j A_i,A_j Ai,Aj满足 A i ∩ A j = Φ A_i\cap A_j = Φ Ai∩Aj=Φ,则有:
P ( ⋃ k = 1 n A k ) = ∑ k = 1 n P ( A k ) P(\bigcup_{k=1}^{n} A_k) = \sum_{k=1}^n P(A_k) P(k=1⋃nAk)=k=1∑nP(Ak)
- Φ Φ Φ为空集, P ( Φ ) = 0 P(Φ) = 0 P(Φ)=0;
- 对于任意事件 A A A, P ( A ) + P ( A ˉ ) = P ( A ∪ A ˉ ) = 1 P(A) + P(\bar{A}) = P(A\cup\bar{A}) = 1 P(A)+P(Aˉ)=P(A∪Aˉ)=1;
- 对于任意两个事件 A , B A,B A,B有: P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A B ) P(A\cup B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(AB) P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(AB);
- 对于任意两个事件 A , B A,B A,B有: P ( A − B ) = P ( A B ˉ ) = P ( A ) − P ( A B ) P(A-B)=P(A\bar B)=P(A)-P(AB) P(A−B)=P(ABˉ)=P(A)−P(AB);
- P ( A B ) + P ( A ˉ B ) = P ( A B ∪ A ˉ B ) = P ( B ) P(AB)+P(\bar{A}B)=P(AB\cup \bar{A}B)=P(B) P(AB)+P(AˉB)=P(AB∪AˉB)=P(B);
排列公式
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P_n ^ m = n(n-1)(n-2)\cdots (n-m+1) = \frac{n!}{(n-m)!}
Pnm=n(n−1)(n−2)⋯(n−m+1)=(n−m)!n!
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A_n ^m = n(n-1)(n-2)\cdots (n-m+1) = \frac{n!}{(n-m)!}
Anm=n(n−1)(n−2)⋯(n−m+1)=(n−m)!n!
组合公式
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Cn0=Cnn=1
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C_n ^ 1 = C_n ^ {n-1} = n
Cn1=Cnn−1=n
当 m > n m\gt n m>n时, C n m = 0 C_n^m =0 Cnm=0
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C_n^m = \frac{A_n^m}{m!} = \frac{n!}{m!(n-m)!}
Cnm=m!Anm=m!(n−m)!n!
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C_n^m = C_n^{n-m}
Cnm=Cnn−m
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C_{n+1} ^ m = C_n^m + C_n ^ {m-1}
Cn+1m=Cnm+Cnm−1
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C_n^0 + C_n^1 + C_n^2 + \cdots + C_n^n = 2^n
Cn0+Cn1+Cn2+⋯+Cnn=2n
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C_n^0 + C_n^2 + C_n^4 = C_n^1 + C_n^3 + C_n^5 = 2^{n-1}
Cn0+Cn2+Cn4=Cn1+Cn3+Cn5=2n−1
条件概率的定义
设有两个事件A,B,P(B)≠0, 在给定B发生的条件下,A发生的概率记为 P(A|B),则:
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P(A|B) = \frac{P(AB) } {P(B)}
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(AB)
P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ˉ ∣ B ) = 1 P(A|B) + P(\bar{A}|B) = 1 P(A∣B)+P(Aˉ∣B)=1
证明过程:
∵ P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) \because P(A|B) =\frac{P(AB)}{P(B)} ∵P(A∣B)=P(B)P(AB)
并且 P ( A ˉ ∣ B ) = P ( A ˉ B ) P ( B ) P(\bar{A}|B) =\frac{P(\bar{A}B)}{P(B)} P(Aˉ∣B)=P(B)P(AˉB)
∴ P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ˉ ∣ B ) = P ( A B ) + P ( A ˉ B ) P ( B ) = P ( A B ∪ A ˉ B ) P ( B ) = P ( B Ω ) P ( B ) = 1 \therefore P(A|B) + P(\bar{A}|B) = \frac{P(AB)+P(\bar{A}B)}{P(B)}= \frac{P(AB\cup \bar{A}B)}{P(B)}=\frac{P(BΩ)}{P(B)}=1 ∴P(A∣B)+P(Aˉ∣B)=P(B)P(AB)+P(AˉB)=P(B)P(AB∪AˉB)=P(B)P(BΩ)=1
如果 P(B) >0, 那么有如下:
- 0 ≤P(A|B)≤1
- P(Ω|B) = 1
如果有互不相容的事件 A 1 , A 2 , . . . A n A_1,A_2, ... A_n A1,A2,...An
P ( ⋃ k = 1 n A k ∣ B ) = ∑ k = 1 n P ( A k ∣ B ) P(\bigcup_{k=1}^{n} A_k|B) = \sum_{k=1}^n P(A_k|B) P(⋃k=1nAk∣B)=∑k=1nP(Ak∣B)
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A1,A2,A3三个事件,若
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P(A1A2A3)>0则有:
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P(A_1\cap A_2\cap A_3) = P(A_1A_2A_3)
P(A1∩A2∩A3)=P(A1A2A3)
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P(A_1 A_2 A_3) = P(A_1)P(A_2|A_1)P(A_3|A_1A_2)
P(A1A2A3)=P(A1)P(A2∣A1)P(A3∣A1A2)
条件概率两个性质:
- P ( A − B ∣ C ) = P ( A ∣ C ) − P ( A B ∣ C ) = P ( A B ˉ ∣ C ) P(A-B|C)=P(A|C)-P(AB|C)=P(A\bar B|C) P(A−B∣C)=P(A∣C)−P(AB∣C)=P(ABˉ∣C)
- P ( A ∪ B ∣ C ) = P ( A ∣ C ) + P ( B ∣ C ) − P ( A B ∣ C ) P(A\cup B|C)=P(A|C)+P(B|C)-P(AB|C) P(A∪B∣C)=P(A∣C)+P(B∣C)−P(AB∣C)
全概率公式
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B1,B2,....Bn 是Ω的完备事件组, 并且它们任意两个都是互不相容的, 那么有:
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P(A) = \sum_{k=1}^n P(A B_k) = \sum_{k=1}^n P(B_k) P(A|B_k)
P(A)=k=1∑nP(ABk)=k=1∑nP(Bk)P(A∣Bk)
从上面的公式可以推导出贝叶斯公式,如下:
P ( B k ∣ A ) = P ( B k ) P ( A ∣ B k ) ∑ k = 1 n P ( B k ) P ( A ∣ B k ) P(B_k|A) = \frac {P(B_k)P(A|B_k)} {\sum_{k=1}^n P(B_k) P(A|B_k)} P(Bk∣A)=∑k=1nP(Bk)P(A∣Bk)P(Bk)P(A∣Bk)
贝氏定理
由上面的条件概率公式可以推出:
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P(A|B,C)=P(A)*P(B|A)*P(C|A,B)/(P(B)*P(C|B))
P(A∣B,C)=P(A)∗P(B∣A)∗P(C∣A,B)/(P(B)∗P(C∣B))
这里的:
P ( A ∣ B , C ) = P ( A ∣ B C ) P(A|B,C) = P(A|BC) P(A∣B,C)=P(A∣BC)
证明过程:
∵ P ( A ∣ B , C ) = P ( A , B , C ) P ( B , C ) \because P(A|B,C)=\frac{P(A,B,C)}{P(B,C)} ∵P(A∣B,C)=P(B,C)P(A,B,C)
∴ P ( A ∣ B , C ) = P ( A ) P ( B ∣ A ) P ( C ∣ A , B ) P ( B , C ) \therefore P(A|B,C)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A,B)}{P(B,C)} ∴P(A∣B,C)=P(B,C)P(A)P(B∣A)P(C∣A,B)
∴ P ( A ∣ B , C ) = P ( A ) P ( B ∣ A ) P ( C ∣ A , B ) P ( B ) ∗ P ( C ∣ B ) \therefore P(A|B,C)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A,B)}{P(B)*P(C|B)} ∴P(A∣B,C)=P(B)∗P(C∣B)P(A)P(B∣A)P(C∣A,B)