它是建立在极大似然原理的基础上的一个
统计方法,极大似然原理的直观想法是,一个随机试验如有若干个可能的结果A,B,C,... ,若在一次试验中,结果A出现了,那么可以认为实验条件对A的出现有利,也即出现的概率P(A)较大。极大似然原理的直观想法我们用下面例子说明。设甲箱中有99个白球,1个黑球;乙箱中有1个白球.99个黑球。现随机取出一箱,再从抽取的一箱中随机取出一球,结果是黑球,这一黑球从乙箱抽取的概率比从甲箱抽取的概率大得多,这时我们自然更多地相信这个黑球是取自乙箱的。一般说来,事件A发生的概率与某一未知参数
有关,
取值不同,则事件A发生的概率
也不同,当我们在一次试验中事件A发生了,则认为此时的
值应是t的一切可能取值中使
达到最大的那一个,极大似然估计法就是要选取这样的t值作为参数t的估计值,使所选取的样本在被选的总体中出现的可能性为最大。
[1]
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D50/sign=2c5bc2c239fa828bd5239de3fc1f1a09/b151f8198618367a4ad1391a24738bd4b21ce599.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D50/sign=2c5bc2c239fa828bd5239de3fc1f1a09/b151f8198618367a4ad1391a24738bd4b21ce599.jpg)
极大似然估计,只是一种概率论在统计学的应用,它是参数估计的方法之一。说的是已知某个随机样本满足某种
概率分布,但是其中具体的参数不清楚,
参数估计就是通过若干次试验,观察其结果,利用结果推出参数的大概值。极大似然估计是建立在这样的思想上:已知某个参数能使这个样本出现的概率最大,我们当然不会再去选择其他小概率的样本,所以干脆就把这个参数作为估计的真实值。
当然极大似然估计只是一种粗略的
数学期望,要知道它的误差大小还要做区间估计。
求解步骤
编辑
1.求极大似然函数估计值的一般步骤:
(1) 写出
似然函数;
(2) 对似然函数取对数,并整理;
(3) 求
导数 ;
(4) 解似然方程 。
2.利用高等数学中求
多元函数的极值的方法,有以下极大似然估计法的具体做法:
(1)根据总体的分布,建立
似然函数
;
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/9fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D190/sign=b723958c08087bf479ec53e0c2d1575e/6159252dd42a28349e2d9ccc51b5c9ea14cebf6a.jpg)
(2) 当 L 关于
可微时,(由微积分求极值的原理)可由方程组
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/9fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D81/sign=d12d1df550afa40f38c6c3dca9645980/6a600c338744ebf8b891cef8d3f9d72a6159a711.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D140/sign=d62d592bdb00baa1be2c43bf7711b9b1/a50f4bfbfbedab644a5fd907fd36afc378311ec3.jpg)
定出
,称以上方程组为似然方程.
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/-Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D107/sign=2e8e73ec04f41bd5de53ecf466db81a0/b219ebc4b74543a9d1b66e0b14178a82b8011443.jpg)
因为 L 与
有相同的极大值点,所以
也可由方程组
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D24/sign=f44d763d71cb0a4681228c3d6963e7eb/48540923dd54564e6ae670feb9de9c82d0584f72.jpg)
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/-Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D107/sign=2e8e73ec04f41bd5de53ecf466db81a0/b219ebc4b74543a9d1b66e0b14178a82b8011443.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/9fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D150/sign=31fcd4fe4136acaf5de092f94cd88d03/574e9258d109b3de669173afc6bf6c81810a4ccf.jpg)
定出
,称以上方程组为对数似然方程;
就是所求参数
的极大似然估计量。
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/-Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D107/sign=2e8e73ec04f41bd5de53ecf466db81a0/b219ebc4b74543a9d1b66e0b14178a82b8011443.jpg)
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/-Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D107/sign=2e8e73ec04f41bd5de53ecf466db81a0/b219ebc4b74543a9d1b66e0b14178a82b8011443.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D107/sign=adde54d361600c33f479dac82d4e5134/b3b7d0a20cf431ad0d52d4fe4136acaf2fdd9871.jpg)
极大似然估计
编辑
1.若总体X为离散型,其概率分布列为
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D135/sign=6ca09a099325bc312f5d059b6bde8de7/f9dcd100baa1cd1133de3de7b312c8fcc2ce2d88.jpg)
其中
为为未知参数。设
是取自总体的样本容量为n的样本,则
的联合分布律为
。又设
的一组观测值为
,易知样本
取到观测值
的概率为
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/7Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D79/sign=1310f9b3e1f81a4c2232eec0d62afe52/9358d109b3de9c82ce7bb2486681800a18d843de.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D89/sign=e50e6b393cd3d539c53d02ca3887f091/a71ea8d3fd1f4134bbee4eb92f1f95cad0c85e1f.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D88/sign=46f12458ae0f4bfb88d0935c014f58a3/0d338744ebf81a4c95fca70edd2a6059242da62f.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D77/sign=0b9d4570e350352ab561270f5243cb19/241f95cad1c8a786f87900c96d09c93d71cf50a1.jpg)
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/-Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D272/sign=efe531c239fa828bd5239ae4cf1d41cd/38dbb6fd5266d0165aff2bef9d2bd40734fa3516.jpg)
这一概率随
的取值而变化,它是
的函数,称
为样本的
似然函数。
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D33/sign=752239f971ec54e745ec1c1db8382a46/5366d0160924ab18c33655f03ffae6cd7a890bd0.jpg)
2.若总体X为连续型,其概率密度函数为
,其中
为未知参数。设
是取自总体的样本容量为n的简单样本,则
的联合概率密度函数为
。又设
的一组观测值为
,则随机点
落在点
的邻边(边长分别为
的n维立方体)内的概率近似地为
。
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D48/sign=19023a6ea3014c081d3b29ad0b7b8c57/7dd98d1001e93901d1193af971ec54e737d196da.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D80/sign=a356113ddbc8a786ba2a470e6609106d/8ad4b31c8701a18b019fa388942f07082938fe85.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D89/sign=e50e6b393cd3d539c53d02ca3887f091/a71ea8d3fd1f4134bbee4eb92f1f95cad0c85e1f.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D98/sign=4931c756c711728b342d802ac9fc645d/b999a9014c086e0685a4778c08087bf40bd1cbed.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D89/sign=e50e6b393cd3d539c53d02ca3887f091/a71ea8d3fd1f4134bbee4eb92f1f95cad0c85e1f.jpg)
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/7Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D107/sign=e8eb57f03ffae6cd08b4af6138b10f9e/b21bb051f819861849ba594340ed2e738ad4e67c.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D103/sign=d7bc14a59222720e7fcee6fa48ca0a3a/0dd7912397dda144737fdd75b8b7d0a20df48687.jpg)
考虑函数
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/9fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D272/sign=92389ac7e324b899da3c7e3f5c071d59/6a63f6246b600c333d446e0f104c510fd9f9a13c.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D33/sign=a9f524b3a7345982c18ae3910df4dc53/c2cec3fdfc039245e8a051c88d94a4c27c1e25db.jpg)
极大似然估计法原理就是固定样本观测值
,挑选参数
使
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D89/sign=e50e6b393cd3d539c53d02ca3887f091/a71ea8d3fd1f4134bbee4eb92f1f95cad0c85e1f.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D287/sign=4e6743776f380cd7e21ea5e59645ad14/9c16fdfaaf51f3de4a9605a39eeef01f3b2979d5.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D17/sign=5e7a31f64090f60300b098403b12a5a6/faf2b2119313b07e1e78edcf06d7912396dd8c34.jpg)
![](https://gss3.bdstatic.com/7Po3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D102/sign=24653aeb8d01a18bf4eb164fac2d0761/730e0cf3d7ca7bcba5f77be8b4096b63f724a86d.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D112/sign=e8302224f71f4134e437017f171e95c1/aa18972bd40735faa8e3f17e94510fb30e2408e1.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D17/sign=5e7a31f64090f60300b098403b12a5a6/faf2b2119313b07e1e78edcf06d7912396dd8c34.jpg)
问题是如何把参数
的极大似然估计
求出。更多场合是利用
是
的增函数,故
与
在同一点处达到最大值,于是对似然函数
取对数,利用微分学知识转化为求解对数似然方程
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D17/sign=5e7a31f64090f60300b098403b12a5a6/faf2b2119313b07e1e78edcf06d7912396dd8c34.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D48/sign=6b9788b872f0f736dcfe4d09085553a3/d52a2834349b033b9b46421d1fce36d3d439bd2f.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D33/sign=752239f971ec54e745ec1c1db8382a46/5366d0160924ab18c33655f03ffae6cd7a890bd0.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D48/sign=6b9788b872f0f736dcfe4d09085553a3/d52a2834349b033b9b46421d1fce36d3d439bd2f.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D33/sign=752239f971ec54e745ec1c1db8382a46/5366d0160924ab18c33655f03ffae6cd7a890bd0.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/-4o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D33/sign=752239f971ec54e745ec1c1db8382a46/5366d0160924ab18c33655f03ffae6cd7a890bd0.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D112/sign=e8302224f71f4134e437017f171e95c1/aa18972bd40735faa8e3f17e94510fb30e2408e1.jpg)
![](https://gss2.bdstatic.com/-fo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D112/sign=e8302224f71f4134e437017f171e95c1/aa18972bd40735faa8e3f17e94510fb30e2408e1.jpg)
![](https://gss1.bdstatic.com/9vo3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D12/sign=36178a2bdb00baa1be2c43b946106652/03087bf40ad162d95bf925db1bdfa9ec8b13cde6.jpg)
![](https://gss0.bdstatic.com/94o3dSag_xI4khGkpoWK1HF6hhy/baike/s%3D179/sign=bd5e730da551f3dec7b2bd63adeff0ec/960a304e251f95caf1802971c3177f3e660952fb.jpg)
--来自百度百科