《For the want of nail》
For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
for want of a shoe, the horse was lost;
for want of a horse, the rider was lost;
for want of the rider, the battle was lost;
for want of a battle, the kingdom was lost;
all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
当然这个有很多的夸张的成分在里面,一个国家的灭亡毕竟是多重因素的结果。但是这民谣的中心:一个小事件,很可能由于某种巧合而放大,在一段时间以后产生一个看上去很重大的结果。
1.气象学家洛伦兹(不同于物理学家洛伦兹)
气象学家,在MIT做长期天气预报的时候发现的现象。它通过计算机输入各种气象数据,依据模型预测下一个时刻的气象数据,然后绘制气象图。但是奇怪的是两次输入“相同”的数值,绘制的曲线在时间的推移会慢慢的相去甚远。