LightOJ 1408 Batting Practice 概率/期望

Batting Practice LightOJ - 1408

连续击球，击不中的概率是 $p$，连续击中 $k_1$ 次时或连续 $k_2$ 次都没有击中时停止击球，问停止击球时的期望击球数。

设 $f(x)$ 为已经连续击中 $x$ 次后停止击球的期望击球数。

设 $g(x)$ 为已经连续失击 $x$ 次后停止击球的期望击球数。

则 $f(k_1)=g(k_2)=0$ ，对于 $x\le k_1$：

$$\begin{array}{rl}f(x)& =(1-p)f(x+1)+pg(1)+1\\ f(x)+b& =(1-p)(f(x+1)+b)\\ f(x)& =(1-p)f(x+1)-pb\\ b& =-g(1)-\frac{1}{p}\\ f(x)+b& =(1-p{)}^{k_1-x}(f(k_1)+b)\\ & =b(1-p{)}^{k_1-x}\\ f(1)& =b(1-p{)}^{k_1-1}-b\\ f(1)& =(g(1)+\frac{1}{p})(1-(1-p{)}^{k_1-1})\end{array}$$

对于 $x\le k_2$：

$$\begin{array}{rl}g(x)& =pg(x+1)+(1-p)f(1)+1\\ g(x)+a& =p(g(x+1)+a)\\ g(x)& =pg(x+1)+a(p-1)\\ a& =-f(1)-\frac{1}{1-p}\\ g(x)+a& =p^{k_2-x}(g(k_2)+a)\\ & =a{p}^{k_2-x}\\ g(1)& =a{p}^{k_2-1}-a\\ g(1)& =(f(1)+\frac{1}{1-p})(1-p^{k_2-1})\end{array}$$

然后解出来 $f(1),g(1)$，如下：

$$\begin{array}{rl}f(1)& =((f(1)+\frac{1}{1-p})(1-p^{k_2-1})+\frac{1}{p})(1-(1-p{)}^{k_1-1})\\ f(1)& =((f(1)+\frac{1}{q})(1-p^{k_2-1})+\frac{1}{p})(1-q^{k_1-1})\\ (1-(1-p^{k_2-1})(1-q^{k_1-1}))f(1)& =\frac{1}{q}(1-p^{k_2-1})(1-q^{k_1-1})+\frac{1}{p}(1-q^{k_1-1})\\ f(1)& =\frac{p_k{q}_{k}p+q{q}_k}{pq(1-p_k{q}_k)}=\frac{p_k{q}_k/q+q_k/p}{1-p_k{q}_k}\\ g(1)& =(f(1)+\frac{1}{q})p_k\\ & =\frac{p_k{q}_{k}q+p{p}_k}{pq(1-p_k{q}_k)}=\frac{p_k{q}_k/p+p_k/q}{1-p_k{q}_k}\end{array}$$

然后结果为 $res=(1-p)f(1)+pg(1)+1$

代码如下：

#include<iostream>
#include<cstdio>
#include<cmath>
//#define WINE
#define eps 1e-6
using namespace std;
int T,iCase,k1,k2;
double p,q,pk,qk,f1,g1;
int main(){
#ifdef WINE
    freopen("data.in","r",stdin);
#endif
    scanf("%d",&T);
    while(T--){
        scanf("%lf%d%d",&p,&k1,&k2);
        q=1-p;
        if(p<eps){
            printf("Case %d: %d\n",++iCase,k1);
            continue;
        }
        if(q<eps){
            printf("Case %d: %d\n",++iCase,k2);
            continue;
        }
        pk=1-pow(p,k2-1);qk=1-pow(q,k1-1);
        f1=(pk*qk/q+qk/p)/(1-pk*qk);
        g1=(pk*qk/p+pk/q)/(1-pk*qk);
        printf("Case %d: %.8lf\n",++iCase,q*f1+p*g1+1);
    }
    return 0;
}