华北平原的年代际气候变化、趋势和未来情景

Decadal Climatic Variability, Trends, and Future Scenarios for the North China Plain

根据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告(AR4)的多gcm输出的未来气候情景，用Kendall s检验对华北平原(NCP)观测到的年代际气候变化和趋势进行了显著性评估。结果表明，在过去的40年里，NCP变得越来越温暖和干燥。年降水量减少约43.9 mm(6.7%，尽管统计上不显著)，近40年来，年平均日均值、最高气温、最低气温分别增加了0.838、0.188、1.468C。年平均日平均气温和最低气温的趋势在统计上都是显著的。NCP未来的气候预计将会更温暖，更湿润。然而，根据水流指数的两参数气候弹性结果，在这些预测下，径流可能会下降。这将给水资源管理带来严重挑战，并可能导致农业、工业、城市社区和环境问题恶化。

Observed decadal climatic variability and trends for the north China plain (NCP) are assessed for significance with Kendall s test and discussed in light of future climate scenarios from multi-GCM outputs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The results indicate that the NCP has become warmer and drier over the last four decades. The annual precipitation has declined by about 43.9 mm (6.7%, although not statistically significant), and the annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.838, 0.188, and 1.468C, respectively, during the past 40 yr. Both trends for annual means of daily mean and minimum temperatures are statistically significant. The future climate of the NCP is projected to be warmer and, with less confidence, wetter. However, streamflow could decline under these projections, based on the results of the two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index. This will produce serious challenges for water resources management and likely lead to exacerbated problems for agriculture, industry, urban communities, and the environment.

References:
[1]. Fu, G., et al., Decadal Climatic Variability, Trends, and Future Scenarios for the North China Plain. Journal of Climate, 2009. 22(8): p. 2111-2123. [1区]