第5章财务报表分析

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第5章财务报表分析

5.1 财务报表概述

5.1.1 财务报表的组成

"""
财务报表组成结构
- 使用Python类实现财务报表基础结构
- 包含主要报表类型及其基本属性

代码说明：
1. FinancialStatement类封装了企业财务报表的主要组成部分
2. 包含五个核心属性：
   - balance_sheet: 资产负债表，记录企业资产、负债和所有者权益
   - income_statement: 利润表，反映企业经营成果
   - cash_flow: 现金流量表，展示企业现金流动情况
   - equity_change: 所有者权益变动表，记录权益变动
   - notes: 财务报表附注，提供补充说明
3. 使用字典数据结构存储各项数据，便于扩展和访问
4. validate()方法用于验证报表完整性，确保包含必要报表
"""
class FinancialStatement:
    def __init__(self):
        self.balance_sheet = {}  # 资产负债表
        self.income_statement = {}  # 利润表
        self.cash_flow = {}  # 现金流量表
        self.equity_change = {}  # 所有者权益变动表
        self.notes = {}  # 财务报表附注

    def validate(self):
        """验证财务报表完整性
        代码说明：
        1. 定义required列表，包含必须的三大报表
        2. 使用getattr()动态获取对象属性
        3. all()函数确保所有必须报表都存在
        4. 返回布尔值，True表示报表完整，False表示缺失
        """
        required = ['balance_sheet', 'income_statement', 'cash_flow']
        return all(getattr(self, attr) for attr in required)

# 示例：创建财务报表对象
"""
代码说明：
1. 实例化FinancialStatement对象
2. 填充资产负债表数据：
   - 资产：500万
   - 负债：200万
   - 所有者权益：300万
3. 填充利润表数据：
   - 收入：100万
   - 成本：60万
   - 利润：40万
4. 调用validate()方法验证报表完整性
5. 打印验证结果
"""
fs = FinancialStatement()
fs.balance_sheet = {
    '资产': 5000000,
    '负债': 2000000,
    '所有者权益': 3000000
}
fs.income_statement = {
    '收入': 1000000,
    '成本': 600000,
    '利润': 400000
}

print("财务报表验证结果:", fs.validate())

5.1.2 财务报表的编制原则

"""
财务报表编制原则检查
- 实现财务报表质量检查功能
- 验证四大基本原则
"""
class FinancialStatementValidator:
    def __init__(self, statement):
        self.statement = statement
        
    def check_authenticity(self):
        """真实性检查"""
        # 示例：检查关键数据是否合理
        return self.statement['assets'] > 0 and self.statement['liabilities'] >= 0
        
    def check_completeness(self):
        """完整性检查"""
        required_fields = ['assets', 'liabilities', 'equity', 'revenue', 'expenses']
        return all(field in self.statement for field in required_fields)
        
    def check_timeliness(self, report_date):
        """及时性检查"""
        from datetime import datetime
        return (datetime.now() - report_date).days <= 90  # 假设90天内为及时
        
    def check_comparability(self, prev_statement):
        """可比性检查"""
        return all(k in prev_statement for k in self.statement.keys())

# 示例使用
statement = {
    'assets': 5000000,
    'liabilities': 2000000,
    'equity': 3000000,
    'revenue': 1000000,
    'expenses': 600000
}

validator = FinancialStatementValidator(statement)
print("真实性检查:", validator.check_authenticity())
print("完整性检查:", validator.check_completeness())

5.2 财务报表分析方法

5.2.1 水平分析法

"""
水平分析实现
- 同比分析：与去年同期比较
- 环比分析：与上期比较
- 趋势分析：多期数据趋势
"""
import pandas as pd

class HorizontalAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, data):
        self.data = pd.DataFrame(data)
        
    def yoy_analysis(self):
        """同比分析"""
        return self.data.pct_change(periods=4)  # 假设季度数据
    
    def mom_analysis(self):
        """环比分析"""
        return self.data.pct_change()
    
    def trend_analysis(self, window=4):
        """趋势分析"""
        return self.data.rolling(window=window).mean()

# 示例数据
data = {
    '2023-Q1': [100, 120, 150],
    '2023-Q2': [110, 130, 160],
    '2023-Q3': [120, 140, 170],
    '2023-Q4': [130, 150, 180],
    '2024-Q1': [140, 160, 190]
}

ha = HorizontalAnalysis(data)
print("同比分析结果:\n", ha.yoy_analysis())
print("环比分析结果:\n", ha.mom_analysis())
print("趋势分析结果:\n", ha.trend_analysis())

5.2.2 垂直分析法

"""
垂直分析实现
- 结构分析：各项目占总体的比例
- 比例分析：关键项目之间的比例关系
"""
class VerticalAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, balance_sheet):
        self.balance_sheet = balance_sheet
        
    def structure_analysis(self):
        """结构分析"""
        total_assets = self.balance_sheet['total_assets']
        return {k: v/total_assets for k, v in self.balance_sheet.items()}
        
    def ratio_analysis(self):
        """比例分析"""
        return {
            'current_ratio': self.balance_sheet['current_assets'] / self.balance_sheet['current_liabilities'],
            'debt_to_equity': self.balance_sheet['total_liabilities'] / self.balance_sheet['equity']
        }

# 示例数据
balance_sheet = {
    'current_assets': 800000,
    'non_current_assets': 1200000,
    'current_liabilities': 400000,
    'non_current_liabilities': 600000,
    'equity': 1000000,
    'total_assets': 2000000,
    'total_liabilities': 1000000
}

va = VerticalAnalysis(balance_sheet)
print("结构分析结果:\n", va.structure_analysis())
print("比例分析结果:\n", va.ratio_analysis())

5.2.3 比率分析法

盈利能力分析
营运能力分析
偿债能力分析
发展能力分析

5.3 资产负债表分析

5.3.1 资产结构分析

"""
资产结构分析实现
- 流动资产分析
- 非流动资产分析
- 资产质量评估
"""
class AssetAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, assets):
        self.assets = assets
        
    def current_assets_analysis(self):
        """流动资产分析"""
        return {
            'current_ratio': self.assets['current_assets'] / self.assets['current_liabilities'],
            'quick_ratio': (self.assets['current_assets'] - self.assets['inventory']) / 
                          self.assets['current_liabilities']
        }
        
    def non_current_assets_analysis(self):
        """非流动资产分析"""
        return {
            'fixed_assets_turnover': self.assets['revenue'] / self.assets['fixed_assets'],
            'depreciation_rate': self.assets['accumulated_depreciation'] / 
                               self.assets['fixed_assets_original']
        }
        
    def asset_quality(self):
        """资产质量评估"""
        return {
            'receivables_turnover': self.assets['revenue'] / self.assets['accounts_receivable'],
            'inventory_turnover': self.assets['cost_of_goods_sold'] / self.assets['inventory']
        }

# 示例数据
assets = {
    'current_assets': 800000,
    'current_liabilities': 400000,
    'inventory': 200000,
    'revenue': 5000000,
    'fixed_assets': 1200000,
    'accumulated_depreciation': 300000,
    'fixed_assets_original': 1500000,
    'accounts_receivable': 600000,
    'cost_of_goods_sold': 3000000
}

analysis = AssetAnalysis(assets)
print("流动资产分析结果:\n", analysis.current_assets_analysis())
print("非流动资产分析结果:\n", analysis.non_current_assets_analysis())
print("资产质量评估结果:\n", analysis.asset_quality())

5.3.2 负债结构分析

"""
负债结构分析实现
- 流动负债分析
- 非流动负债分析
- 资本结构分析
"""
class LiabilityAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, liabilities):
        self.liabilities = liabilities
        
    def current_liabilities_analysis(self):
        """流动负债分析"""
        return {
            'current_ratio': self.liabilities['current_assets'] / self.liabilities['current_liabilities'],
            'quick_ratio': (self.liabilities['current_assets'] - self.liabilities['inventory']) / 
                          self.liabilities['current_liabilities']
        }
        
    def non_current_liabilities_analysis(self):
        """非流动负债分析"""
        return {
            'debt_to_equity': self.liabilities['total_liabilities'] / self.liabilities['equity'],
            'interest_coverage': self.liabilities['ebit'] / self.liabilities['interest_expense']
        }
        
    def capital_structure(self):
        """资本结构分析"""
        total_capital = self.liabilities['total_liabilities'] + self.liabilities['equity']
        return {
            'debt_ratio': self.liabilities['total_liabilities'] / total_capital,
            'equity_ratio': self.liabilities['equity'] / total_capital
        }

# 示例数据
liabilities = {
    'current_assets': 800000,
    'current_liabilities': 400000,
    'inventory': 200000,
    'total_liabilities': 1000000,
    'equity': 1500000,
    'ebit': 500000,
    'interest_expense': 50000
}

analysis = LiabilityAnalysis(liabilities)
print("流动负债分析结果:\n", analysis.current_liabilities_analysis())
print("非流动负债分析结果:\n", analysis.non_current_liabilities_analysis())
print("资本结构分析结果:\n", analysis.capital_structure())

5.3.3 所有者权益分析

"""
所有者权益分析实现
- 实收资本分析
- 资本公积分析
- 留存收益分析
"""
class EquityAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, equity):
        self.equity = equity
        
    def paid_in_capital_analysis(self):
        """实收资本分析"""
        return {
            'capital_adequacy_ratio': self.equity['total_equity'] / self.equity['risk_weighted_assets'],
            'capital_growth_rate': (self.equity['current_paid_in_capital'] - 
                                  self.equity['previous_paid_in_capital']) / 
                                  self.equity['previous_paid_in_capital']
        }
        
    def capital_reserve_analysis(self):
        """资本公积分析"""
        return {
            'reserve_ratio': self.equity['capital_reserve'] / self.equity['total_equity'],
            'reserve_growth': (self.equity['current_reserve'] - self.equity['previous_reserve']) / 
                            self.equity['previous_reserve']
        }
        
    def retained_earnings_analysis(self):
        """留存收益分析"""
        return {
            'retention_ratio': self.equity['retained_earnings'] / self.equity['net_income'],
            'dividend_payout_ratio': self.equity['dividends'] / self.equity['net_income']
        }

# 示例数据
equity = {
    'total_equity': 2000000,
    'risk_weighted_assets': 5000000,
    'current_paid_in_capital': 1500000,
    'previous_paid_in_capital': 1400000,
    'capital_reserve': 300000,
    'current_reserve': 320000,
    'previous_reserve': 300000,
    'retained_earnings': 800000,
    'net_income': 1000000,
    'dividends': 200000
}

analysis = EquityAnalysis(equity)
print("实收资本分析结果:\n", analysis.paid_in_capital_analysis())
print("资本公积分析结果:\n", analysis.capital_reserve_analysis())
print("留存收益分析结果:\n", analysis.retained_earnings_analysis())

5.4 利润表分析

5.4.1 收入分析

"""
收入分析实现
- 主营业务收入分析
- 其他业务收入分析
- 收入增长分析
"""
class RevenueAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, revenue_data):
        self.revenue_data = revenue_data
        
    def main_business_analysis(self):
        """主营业务收入分析"""
        return {
            'main_business_ratio': self.revenue_data['main_business'] / self.revenue_data['total_revenue'],
            'main_business_growth': (self.revenue_data['current_main'] - self.revenue_data['previous_main']) / 
                                  self.revenue_data['previous_main']
        }
        
    def other_business_analysis(self):
        """其他业务收入分析"""
        return {
            'other_business_ratio': self.revenue_data['other_business'] / self.revenue_data['total_revenue'],
            'other_business_growth': (self.revenue_data['current_other'] - self.revenue_data['previous_other']) / 
                                   self.revenue_data['previous_other']
        }
        
    def revenue_growth_analysis(self):
        """收入增长分析"""
        return {
            'total_growth': (self.revenue_data['current_total'] - self.revenue_data['previous_total']) / 
                          self.revenue_data['previous_total'],
            'compound_growth': (self.revenue_data['current_total'] / self.revenue_data['previous_total']) ** (1/3) - 1
        }

# 示例数据
revenue_data = {
    'main_business': 8000000,
    'total_revenue': 10000000,
    'current_main': 8500000,
    'previous_main': 8000000,
    'other_business': 2000000,
    'current_other': 2200000,
    'previous_other': 2000000,
    'current_total': 10700000,
    'previous_total': 10000000
}

analysis = RevenueAnalysis(revenue_data)
print("主营业务收入分析结果:\n", analysis.main_business_analysis())
print("其他业务收入分析结果:\n", analysis.other_business_analysis())
print("收入增长分析结果:\n", analysis.revenue_growth_analysis())

5.4.2 成本费用分析

"""
成本费用分析实现
- 主营业务成本分析
- 期间费用分析
- 成本控制分析
"""
class CostAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, cost_data):
        self.cost_data = cost_data
        
    def main_cost_analysis(self):
        """主营业务成本分析"""
        return {
            'cost_ratio': self.cost_data['main_cost'] / self.cost_data['main_revenue'],
            'cost_growth': (self.cost_data['current_cost'] - self.cost_data['previous_cost']) / 
                         self.cost_data['previous_cost']
        }
        
    def period_cost_analysis(self):
        """期间费用分析"""
        return {
            'selling_expense_ratio': self.cost_data['selling_expense'] / self.cost_data['revenue'],
            'admin_expense_ratio': self.cost_data['admin_expense'] / self.cost_data['revenue'],
            'financial_expense_ratio': self.cost_data['financial_expense'] / self.cost_data['revenue']
        }
        
    def cost_control_analysis(self):
        """成本控制分析"""
        return {
            'cost_reduction_rate': (self.cost_data['previous_cost'] - self.cost_data['current_cost']) / 
                                 self.cost_data['previous_cost'],
            'cost_structure': {
                'material': self.cost_data['material_cost'] / self.cost_data['total_cost'],
                'labor': self.cost_data['labor_cost'] / self.cost_data['total_cost'],
                'overhead': self.cost_data['overhead_cost'] / self.cost_data['total_cost']
            }
        }

# 示例数据
cost_data = {
    'main_cost': 6000000,
    'main_revenue': 8000000,
    'current_cost': 6200000,
    'previous_cost': 6000000,
    'selling_expense': 500000,
    'admin_expense': 300000,
    'financial_expense': 200000,
    'revenue': 10000000,
    'material_cost': 4000000,
    'labor_cost': 1500000,
    'overhead_cost': 500000,
    'total_cost': 6000000
}

analysis = CostAnalysis(cost_data)
print("主营业务成本分析结果:\n", analysis.main_cost_analysis())
print("期间费用分析结果:\n", analysis.period_cost_analysis())
print("成本控制分析结果:\n", analysis.cost_control_analysis())

5.4.3 盈利能力分析

"""
盈利能力分析实现
- 毛利率分析
- 净利率分析
- 每股收益分析
"""
class ProfitabilityAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, profit_data):
        self.profit_data = profit_data
        
    def gross_margin_analysis(self):
        """毛利率分析"""
        gross_profit = self.profit_data['revenue'] - self.profit_data['cost_of_goods_sold']
        return {
            'gross_margin': gross_profit / self.profit_data['revenue'],
            'gross_margin_growth': (gross_profit - self.profit_data['previous_gross_profit']) / 
                                 self.profit_data['previous_gross_profit']
        }
        
    def net_margin_analysis(self):
        """净利率分析"""
        return {
            'net_margin': self.profit_data['net_income'] / self.profit_data['revenue'],
            'net_margin_growth': (self.profit_data['current_net_income'] - 
                                self.profit_data['previous_net_income']) / 
                               self.profit_data['previous_net_income']
        }
        
    def eps_analysis(self):
        """每股收益分析"""
        return {
            'basic_eps': self.profit_data['net_income'] / self.profit_data['shares_outstanding'],
            'diluted_eps': self.profit_data['net_income'] / 
                         (self.profit_data['shares_outstanding'] + self.profit_data['potential_shares'])
        }

# 示例数据
profit_data = {
    'revenue': 10000000,
    'cost_of_goods_sold': 6000000,
    'previous_gross_profit': 3800000,
    'net_income': 2000000,
    'current_net_income': 2200000,
    'previous_net_income': 2000000,
    'shares_outstanding': 1000000,
    'potential_shares': 200000
}

analysis = ProfitabilityAnalysis(profit_data)
print("毛利率分析结果:\n", analysis.gross_margin_analysis())
print("净利率分析结果:\n", analysis.net_margin_analysis())
print("每股收益分析结果:\n", analysis.eps_analysis())

5.5 现金流量表分析

5.5.1 经营活动现金流分析

"""
经营活动现金流分析实现
- 现金流入分析
- 现金流出分析
- 净现金流分析
"""
class OperatingCashFlowAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, cash_flow_data):
        self.cash_flow_data = cash_flow_data
        
    def cash_inflow_analysis(self):
        """现金流入分析"""
        return {
            'receivables_turnover': self.cash_flow_data['sales'] / self.cash_flow_data['accounts_receivable'],
            'cash_inflow_ratio': self.cash_flow_data['cash_inflow'] / self.cash_flow_data['total_revenue']
        }
        
    def cash_outflow_analysis(self):
        """现金流出分析"""
        return {
            'payables_turnover': self.cash_flow_data['cost_of_goods_sold'] / self.cash_flow_data['accounts_payable'],
            'cash_outflow_ratio': self.cash_flow_data['cash_outflow'] / self.cash_flow_data['total_expenses']
        }
        
    def net_cash_flow_analysis(self):
        """净现金流分析"""
        return {
            'net_cash_flow': self.cash_flow_data['cash_inflow'] - self.cash_flow_data['cash_outflow'],
            'cash_flow_margin': (self.cash_flow_data['cash_inflow'] - self.cash_flow_data['cash_outflow']) / 
                              self.cash_flow_data['cash_inflow']
        }

# 示例数据
cash_flow_data = {
    'sales': 10000000,
    'accounts_receivable': 1500000,
    'cash_inflow': 9500000,
    'total_revenue': 10000000,
    'cost_of_goods_sold': 6000000,
    'accounts_payable': 1200000,
    'cash_outflow': 8500000,
    'total_expenses': 9000000
}

analysis = OperatingCashFlowAnalysis(cash_flow_data)
print("现金流入分析结果:\n", analysis.cash_inflow_analysis())
print("现金流出分析结果:\n", analysis.cash_outflow_analysis())
print("净现金流分析结果:\n", analysis.net_cash_flow_analysis())

5.5.2 投资活动现金流分析

"""
投资活动现金流分析实现
- 投资支出分析
- 投资收益分析
"""
class InvestingCashFlowAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, investing_data):
        self.investing_data = investing_data
        
    def investment_expenditure_analysis(self):
        """投资支出分析"""
        return {
            'capex_ratio': self.investing_data['capital_expenditure'] / self.investing_data['total_assets'],
            'investment_intensity': self.investing_data['capital_expenditure'] / 
                                  self.investing_data['operating_cash_flow']
        }
        
    def investment_return_analysis(self):
        """投资收益分析"""
        return {
            'roi': self.investing_data['investment_income'] / self.investing_data['total_investment'],
            'payback_period': self.investing_data['total_investment'] / 
                            self.investing_data['annual_cash_flow']
        }

# 示例数据
investing_data = {
    'capital_expenditure': 2000000,
    'total_assets': 10000000,
    'operating_cash_flow': 5000000,
    'investment_income': 800000,
    'total_investment': 5000000,
    'annual_cash_flow': 1200000
}

analysis = InvestingCashFlowAnalysis(investing_data)
print("投资支出分析结果:\n", analysis.investment_expenditure_analysis())
print("投资收益分析结果:\n", analysis.investment_return_analysis())

5.5.3 筹资活动现金流分析

"""
筹资活动现金流分析实现
- 筹资方式分析
- 筹资成本分析
"""
class FinancingCashFlowAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, financing_data):
        self.financing_data = financing_data
        
    def financing_method_analysis(self):
        """筹资方式分析"""
        return {
            'debt_ratio': self.financing_data['debt_financing'] / self.financing_data['total_financing'],
            'equity_ratio': self.financing_data['equity_financing'] / self.financing_data['total_financing']
        }
        
    def financing_cost_analysis(self):
        """筹资成本分析"""
        return {
            'cost_of_debt': self.financing_data['interest_expense'] / self.financing_data['total_debt'],
            'cost_of_equity': self.financing_data['dividends'] / self.financing_data['equity']
        }

# 示例数据
financing_data = {
    'debt_financing': 3000000,
    'total_financing': 5000000,
    'equity_financing': 2000000,
    'interest_expense': 150000,
    'total_debt': 3000000,
    'dividends': 200000,
    'equity': 5000000
}

analysis = FinancingCashFlowAnalysis(financing_data)
print("筹资方式分析结果:\n", analysis.financing_method_analysis())
print("筹资成本分析结果:\n", analysis.financing_cost_analysis())

5.6 综合财务分析

5.6.1 杜邦分析法

"""
杜邦分析实现
- 净资产收益率分解
- 财务杠杆分析
- 经营效率分析
"""
class DuPontAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, financial_data):
        self.financial_data = financial_data
        
    def roe_decomposition(self):
        """净资产收益率分解"""
        net_profit_margin = self.financial_data['net_income'] / self.financial_data['revenue']
        asset_turnover = self.financial_data['revenue'] / self.financial_data['total_assets']
        equity_multiplier = self.financial_data['total_assets'] / self.financial_data['equity']
        return {
            'roe': net_profit_margin * asset_turnover * equity_multiplier,
            'net_profit_margin': net_profit_margin,
            'asset_turnover': asset_turnover,
            'equity_multiplier': equity_multiplier
        }
        
    def financial_leverage_analysis(self):
        """财务杠杆分析"""
        return {
            'debt_to_equity': self.financial_data['total_liabilities'] / self.financial_data['equity'],
            'interest_coverage': self.financial_data['ebit'] / self.financial_data['interest_expense']
        }
        
    def operating_efficiency_analysis(self):
        """经营效率分析"""
        return {
            'inventory_turnover': self.financial_data['cost_of_goods_sold'] / self.financial_data['inventory'],
            'receivables_turnover': self.financial_data['revenue'] / self.financial_data['accounts_receivable']
        }

# 示例数据
financial_data = {
    'net_income': 2000000,
    'revenue': 10000000,
    'total_assets': 15000000,
    'equity': 8000000,
    'total_liabilities': 7000000,
    'ebit': 3000000,
    'interest_expense': 150000,
    'cost_of_goods_sold': 6000000,
    'inventory': 1500000,
    'accounts_receivable': 1200000
}

analysis = DuPontAnalysis(financial_data)
print("杜邦分析结果:\n", analysis.roe_decomposition())
print("财务杠杆分析结果:\n", analysis.financial_leverage_analysis())
print("经营效率分析结果:\n", analysis.operating_efficiency_analysis())

5.6.2 财务预警分析

"""
财务预警分析实现
- Z-score模型
- F分数模型
- 财务风险预警
"""
class FinancialEarlyWarning:
    def __init__(self, financial_data):
        self.financial_data = financial_data
        
    def z_score_model(self):
        """Z-score模型"""
        working_capital = self.financial_data['current_assets'] - self.financial_data['current_liabilities']
        retained_earnings = self.financial_data['retained_earnings']
        ebit = self.financial_data['ebit']
        market_value = self.financial_data['market_value']
        total_liabilities = self.financial_data['total_liabilities']
        sales = self.financial_data['sales']
        total_assets = self.financial_data['total_assets']
        
        z_score = 1.2 * (working_capital/total_assets) + \
                  1.4 * (retained_earnings/total_assets) + \
                  3.3 * (ebit/total_assets) + \
                  0.6 * (market_value/total_liabilities) + \
                  1.0 * (sales/total_assets)
        return z_score
        
    def f_score_model(self):
        """F分数模型"""
        roa = self.financial_data['net_income'] / self.financial_data['total_assets']
        cash_flow = self.financial_data['operating_cash_flow'] / self.financial_data['total_liabilities']
        delta_roa = roa - self.financial_data['previous_roa']
        accruals = (self.financial_data['net_income'] - self.financial_data['operating_cash_flow']) / \
                  self.financial_data['total_assets']
        delta_leverage = (self.financial_data['total_liabilities'] / self.financial_data['total_assets']) - \
                        (self.financial_data['previous_liabilities'] / self.financial_data['previous_assets'])
        delta_liquidity = (self.financial_data['current_assets'] / self.financial_data['current_liabilities']) - \
                         (self.financial_data['previous_current_assets'] / self.financial_data['previous_current_liabilities'])
        delta_margin = (self.financial_data['gross_margin'] / self.financial_data['sales']) - \
                      (self.financial_data['previous_gross_margin'] / self.financial_data['previous_sales'])
        
        f_score = -0.1774 + 1.1091*roa + 0.1074*cash_flow + 1.9271*delta_roa + \
                  0.0302*accruals + 0.4961*delta_leverage + 0.4961*delta_liquidity + \
                  0.4961*delta_margin
        return f_score
        
    def risk_warning(self):
        """财务风险预警"""
        z_score = self.z_score_model()
        f_score = self.f_score_model()
        
        return {
            'z_score': z_score,
            'f_score': f_score,
            'z_warning': '安全' if z_score > 2.99 else ('需要关注' if 1.81 < z_score <= 2.99 else '危险'),
            'f_warning': '安全' if f_score > 0.5 else '危险'
        }

# 示例数据
financial_data = {
    'current_assets': 8000000,
    'current_liabilities': 4000000,
    'retained_earnings': 3000000,
    'ebit': 2000000,
    'market_value': 10000000,
    'total_liabilities': 6000000,
    'sales': 15000000,
    'total_assets': 20000000,
    'net_income': 1200000,
    'operating_cash_flow': 1500000,
    'previous_roa': 0.05,
    'previous_liabilities': 5500000,
    'previous_assets': 18000000,
    'previous_current_assets': 7500000,
    'previous_current_liabilities': 3800000,
    'gross_margin': 5000000,
    'previous_gross_margin': 4500000,
    'previous_sales': 14000000
}

analysis = FinancialEarlyWarning(financial_data)
print("财务预警分析结果:\n", analysis.risk_warning())

5.7 财务报表分析案例

5.7.1 上市公司财务报表分析

"""
上市公司财务报表分析案例
- 案例背景
- 分析方法
- 分析结论
"""
class PublicCompanyAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, company_data):
        self.company_data = company_data
        
    def case_background(self):
        """案例背景"""
        return {
            'company_name': self.company_data['name'],
            'industry': self.company_data['industry'],
            'market_cap': self.company_data['market_cap'],
            'revenue': self.company_data['revenue']
        }
        
    def analysis_methods(self):
        """分析方法"""
        return {
            'ratio_analysis': True,
            'trend_analysis': True,
            'benchmarking': True,
            'duPont_analysis': True
        }
        
    def analysis_conclusion(self):
        """分析结论"""
        return {
            'profitability': '良好' if self.company_data['net_margin'] > 0.1 else '一般',
            'liquidity': '充足' if self.company_data['current_ratio'] > 2 else '不足',
            'solvency': '安全' if self.company_data['debt_to_equity'] < 1 else '有风险',
            'growth': '强劲' if self.company_data['revenue_growth'] > 0.2 else '平稳'
        }

# 示例数据
company_data = {
    'name': 'ABC股份有限公司',
    'industry': '制造业',
    'market_cap': 5000000000,
    'revenue': 1000000000,
    'net_margin': 0.12,
    'current_ratio': 2.5,
    'debt_to_equity': 0.8,
    'revenue_growth': 0.25
}

analysis = PublicCompanyAnalysis(company_data)
print("案例背景:\n", analysis.case_background())
print("分析方法:\n", analysis.analysis_methods())
print("分析结论:\n", analysis.analysis_conclusion())

5.7.2 中小企业财务报表分析

"""
中小企业财务报表分析案例
- 案例背景
- 分析方法
- 分析结论
"""
class SMEAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, sme_data):
        self.sme_data = sme_data
        
    def case_background(self):
        """案例背景"""
        return {
            'company_name': self.sme_data['name'],
            'industry': self.sme_data['industry'],
            'revenue': self.sme_data['revenue'],
            'employee_count': self.sme_data['employee_count']
        }
        
    def analysis_methods(self):
        """分析方法"""
        return {
            'cash_flow_analysis': True,
            'break_even_analysis': True,
            'working_capital_analysis': True,
            'credit_risk_assessment': True
        }
        
    def analysis_conclusion(self):
        """分析结论"""
        return {
            'profitability': '良好' if self.sme_data['net_margin'] > 0.05 else '一般',
            'liquidity': '充足' if self.sme_data['current_ratio'] > 1.5 else '不足',
            'solvency': '安全' if self.sme_data['debt_to_equity'] < 1.5 else '有风险',
            'growth': '强劲' if self.sme_data['revenue_growth'] > 0.15 else '平稳'
        }

# 示例数据
sme_data = {
    'name': 'XYZ有限公司',
    'industry': '服务业',
    'revenue': 5000000,
    'employee_count': 50,
    'net_margin': 0.06,
    'current_ratio': 1.8,
    'debt_to_equity': 1.2,
    'revenue_growth': 0.18
}

analysis = SMEAnalysis(sme_data)
print("案例背景:\n", analysis.case_background())
print("分析方法:\n", analysis.analysis_methods())
print("分析结论:\n

### 5.7.2 中小企业财务报表分析
- 案例背景
- 分析方法
- 分析结论

## 5.8 财务报表分析工具
### 5.8.1 Excel在财务分析中的应用
```python
"""
Excel财务分析自动化实现
- 使用Python自动化Excel操作
- 包含数据透视表、财务函数、图表分析等功能
"""
import pandas as pd
import openpyxl
from openpyxl.chart import BarChart, Reference

class ExcelFinancialAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, file_path):
        self.file_path = file_path
        self.wb = openpyxl.Workbook()
        self.ws = self.wb.active
        
    def create_pivot_table(self, data):
        """创建数据透视表"""
        df = pd.DataFrame(data)
        pivot = pd.pivot_table(df, values='金额', index='项目', 
                             columns='期间', aggfunc='sum')
        for r in dataframe_to_rows(pivot, index=True, header=True):
            self.ws.append(r)
            
    def apply_financial_functions(self):
        """应用财务函数"""
        self.ws['B10'] = '净现值(NPV):'
        self.ws['C10'] = '=NPV(0.1, C2:C8)'
        self.ws['B11'] = '内部收益率(IRR):'
        self.ws['C11'] = '=IRR(C2:C8)'
        self.ws['B12'] = '投资回收期:'
        self.ws['C12'] = '=NPER(0.1, -100000, 500000)'
        
    def create_charts(self):
        """创建图表"""
        chart = BarChart()
        data = Reference(self.ws, min_col=2, min_row=1, max_col=5, max_row=8)
        cats = Reference(self.ws, min_col=1, min_row=2, max_row=8)
        chart.add_data(data, titles_from_data=True)
        chart.set_categories(cats)
        self.ws.add_chart(chart, "A15")
        
    def save(self):
        """保存文件"""
        self.wb.save(self.file_path)

# 示例使用
data = {
    '项目': ['收入', '成本', '利润', '税费', '净利润'],
    '2023-Q1': [1000000, 600000, 400000, 100000, 300000],
    '2023-Q2': [1200000, 700000, 500000, 120000, 380000],
    '2023-Q3': [1500000, 900000, 600000, 150000, 450000]
}

excel_analysis = ExcelFinancialAnalysis('financial_analysis.xlsx')
excel_analysis.create_pivot_table(data)
excel_analysis.apply_financial_functions()
excel_analysis.create_charts()
excel_analysis.save()

5.8.2 Python在财务分析中的应用

"""
Python财务分析综合应用
- 财务报表分析
- 财务预测
- 风险管理
"""
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from scipy.stats import norm

class FinancialAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, financial_data):
        self.data = pd.DataFrame(financial_data)
        
    def financial_statement_analysis(self):
        """财务报表分析"""
        return {
            'current_ratio': self.data['current_assets'].sum() / self.data['current_liabilities'].sum(),
            'debt_to_equity': self.data['total_liabilities'].sum() / self.data['equity'].sum(),
            'net_profit_margin': self.data['net_income'].sum() / self.data['revenue'].sum()
        }
        
    def financial_forecasting(self):
        """财务预测"""
        X = np.array(range(len(self.data))).reshape(-1, 1)
        y = self.data['revenue'].values
        model = LinearRegression()
        model.fit(X, y)
        forecast = model.predict(np.array([[len(self.data) + 1]]))
        return forecast[0]
        
    def risk_management(self):
        """风险管理"""
        returns = self.data['revenue'].pct_change().dropna()
        var_95 = norm.ppf(0.05, returns.mean(), returns.std())
        return {
            'average_return': returns.mean(),
            'volatility': returns.std(),
            'var_95': var_95
        }

# 示例数据
financial_data = {
    'period': ['2023-Q1', '2023-Q2', '2023-Q3'],
    'revenue': [1000000, 1200000, 1500000],
    'current_assets': [800000, 850000, 900000],
    'current_liabilities': [400000, 420000, 450000],
    'total_liabilities': [600000, 620000, 650000],
    'equity': [1000000, 1100000, 1200000],
    'net_income': [200000, 250000, 300000]
}

analysis = FinancialAnalysis(financial_data)
print("财务报表分析结果:\n", analysis.financial_statement_analysis())
print("财务预测结果:\n", analysis.financial_forecasting())
print("风险管理分析结果:\n", analysis.risk_management())

5.8.2.1 财务报表数据结构

import pandas as pd

"""
创建资产负债表数据结构
- 使用Pandas DataFrame存储资产负债表数据
- 包含主要项目：流动资产、非流动资产、流动负债、非流动负债、所有者权益
- 金额单位为元
"""
balance_sheet = pd.DataFrame({
    '项目': ['流动资产', '非流动资产', '流动负债', '非流动负债', '所有者权益'],
    '金额': [1500000, 2500000, 800000, 1200000, 2000000]
})

"""
创建利润表数据结构
- 使用Pandas DataFrame存储利润表数据
- 包含主要项目：营业收入、营业成本、营业利润、利润总额、净利润
- 金额单位为元
"""
income_statement = pd.DataFrame({
    '项目': ['营业收入', '营业成本', '营业利润', '利润总额', '净利润'],
    '金额': [5000000, 3000000, 1500000, 1400000, 1000000]
})

# 打印数据结构示例
print("资产负债表示例：")
print(balance_sheet)
print("\n利润表示例：")
print(income_statement)

5.8.2.2 财务比率计算

"""
流动比率计算
- 公式：流动比率 = 流动资产 / 流动负债
- 衡量企业短期偿债能力
- 通常认为2:1的流动比率较为理想
"""
current_ratio = balance_sheet.loc[0, '金额'] / balance_sheet.loc[2, '金额']
print(f"流动比率：{current_ratio:.2f}")

"""
资产负债率计算
- 公式：资产负债率 = （流动负债 + 非流动负债）/ 总资产
- 反映企业财务杠杆水平
- 通常认为40%-60%较为合理
"""
debt_ratio = (balance_sheet.loc[2, '金额'] + balance_sheet.loc[3, '金额']) / \
             (balance_sheet.loc[0, '金额'] + balance_sheet.loc[1, '金额'])
print(f"资产负债率：{debt_ratio:.2%}")

"""
净利润率计算
- 公式：净利润率 = 净利润 / 营业收入
- 反映企业盈利能力
- 行业平均值可作为参考基准
"""
net_profit_margin = income_statement.loc[4, '金额'] / income_statement.loc[0, '金额']
print(f"净利润率：{net_profit_margin:.2%}")

5.8.2.3 财务数据可视化

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

"""
资产负债表可视化
- 使用柱状图展示资产负债表各项目金额
- 设置图表大小、标题、标签等
- 自动调整x轴标签角度防止重叠
"""
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.bar(balance_sheet['项目'], balance_sheet['金额'], color='skyblue')
plt.title('资产负债表可视化', fontsize=14)
plt.ylabel('金额（元）', fontsize=12)
plt.xlabel('项目', fontsize=12)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.grid(axis='y', linestyle='--', alpha=0.7)
plt.show()

"""
利润表可视化
- 使用折线图展示利润表各项目趋势
- 添加数据点标记
- 设置图表样式和格式
"""
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(income_statement['项目'], income_statement['金额'], 
         marker='o', color='orange', linewidth=2)
plt.title('利润表趋势分析', fontsize=14)
plt.ylabel('金额（元）', fontsize=12)
plt.xlabel('项目', fontsize=12)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.grid(linestyle='--', alpha=0.7)
plt.show()

5.8.2.4 杜邦分析实现

"""
杜邦分析实现
- 公式：ROE = 净利润率 × 总资产周转率 × 权益乘数
- 分解企业盈利能力来源
- 帮助分析企业财务表现驱动因素
"""
# 计算总资产周转率
asset_turnover = income_statement.loc[0, '金额'] / \
                 (balance_sheet.loc[0, '金额'] + balance_sheet.loc[1, '金额'])

# 计算权益乘数
equity_multiplier = (balance_sheet.loc[0, '金额'] + balance_sheet.loc[1, '金额']) / \
                    balance_sheet.loc[4, '金额']

# 计算净资产收益率
roe = net_profit_margin * asset_turnover * equity_multiplier

# 打印分析结果
print(f"净利润率：{net_profit_margin:.2%}")
print(f"总资产周转率：{asset_turnover:.2f}")
print(f"权益乘数：{equity_multiplier:.2f}")
print(f"净资产收益率(ROE)：{roe:.2%}")

5.8.2.5 财务预警模型

"""
Z-score模型计算
- 用于预测企业破产风险的模型
- 由Edward Altman开发
- 判断标准：
  Z > 2.99：安全区
  1.81 < Z < 2.99：灰色区
  Z < 1.81：危险区
"""
# 计算营运资本
working_capital = balance_sheet.loc[0, '金额'] - balance_sheet.loc[2, '金额']

# 获取留存收益
retained_earnings = balance_sheet.loc[4, '金额']

# 获取息税前利润
ebit = income_statement.loc[2, '金额']

# 假设市场价值
market_value = 5000000  

# 计算总负债
total_liabilities = balance_sheet.loc[2, '金额'] + balance_sheet.loc[3, '金额']

# 获取营业收入
sales = income_statement.loc[0, '金额']

# 计算总资产
total_assets = balance_sheet.loc[0, '金额'] + balance_sheet.loc[1, '金额']

# 计算Z-score
z_score = 1.2 * (working_capital/total_assets) + \
          1.4 * (retained_earnings/total_assets) + \
          3.3 * (ebit/total_assets) + \
          0.6 * (market_value/total_liabilities) + \
          1.0 * (sales/total_assets)

# 打印结果并分析
print(f"Z-score: {z_score:.2f}")
if z_score > 2.99:
    print("财务状况：安全")
elif 1.81 < z_score <= 2.99:
    print("财务状况：需要关注")
else:
    print("财务状况：危险")

5.9 财务报表分析报告撰写

5.9.1 报告结构

"""
财务报表分析报告生成器
- 自动生成报告结构
- 包含摘要、分析内容、结论与建议
"""
from datetime import datetime

class FinancialReport:
    def __init__(self, company_name):
        self.company_name = company_name
        self.report = {
            'header': self._generate_header(),
            'summary': '',
            'analysis': {},
            'conclusions': [],
            'recommendations': []
        }
        
    def _generate_header(self):
        """生成报告头"""
        return {
            'title': f'{self.company_name}财务报表分析报告',
            'date': datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
            'author': '财务分析系统'
        }
        
    def add_summary(self, text):
        """添加摘要"""
        self.report['summary'] = text
        
    def add_analysis(self, section, content):
        """添加分析内容"""
        self.report['analysis'][section] = content
        
    def add_conclusion(self, conclusion):
        """添加结论"""
        self.report['conclusions'].append(conclusion)
        
    def add_recommendation(self, recommendation):
        """添加建议"""
        self.report['recommendations'].append(recommendation)
        
    def generate_report(self):
        """生成完整报告"""
        report_text = f"报告标题: {self.report['header']['title']}\n"
        report_text += f"报告日期: {self.report['header']['date']}\n"
        report_text += f"报告作者: {self.report['header']['author']}\n\n"
        report_text += "摘要:\n" + self.report['summary'] + "\n\n"
        report_text += "分析内容:\n"
        for section, content in self.report['analysis'].items():
            report_text += f"{section}:\n{content}\n"
        report_text += "\n结论:\n"
        for conclusion in self.report['conclusions']:
            report_text += f"- {conclusion}\n"
        report_text += "\n建议:\n"
        for recommendation in self.report['recommendations']:
            report_text += f"- {recommendation}\n"
        return report_text

# 示例使用
report = FinancialReport('ABC公司')
report.add_summary('本报告对ABC公司2023年财务状况进行了全面分析...')
report.add_analysis('盈利能力分析', '公司净利润率保持在10%以上...')
report.add_analysis('偿债能力分析', '流动比率维持在2.0左右...')
report.add_conclusion('公司财务状况总体健康')
report.add_conclusion('需要关注应收账款周转率下降的问题')
report.add_recommendation('加强应收账款管理')
report.add_recommendation('优化资本结构')

print(report.generate_report())

5.9.2 报告注意事项

"""
财务报表分析报告质量检查
- 数据准确性验证
- 分析客观性评估
- 建议可行性分析
"""
class ReportQualityChecker:
    def __init__(self, report):
        self.report = report
        
    def check_data_accuracy(self, source_data):
        """数据准确性检查"""
        errors = []
        for key, value in self.report['data'].items():
            if value != source_data[key]:
                errors.append(f"{key} 数据不一致: 报告值 {value}, 源数据 {source_data[key]}")
        return errors
        
    def check_analysis_objectivity(self):
        """分析客观性评估"""
        subjective_words = ['非常', '极其', '绝对', '肯定']
        subjective_count = sum(self.report['analysis'].count(word) for word in subjective_words)
        return subjective_count
        
    def check_recommendation_feasibility(self):
        """建议可行性分析"""
        feasibility_score = 0
        for recommendation in self.report['recommendations']:
            if '加强' in recommendation or '优化' in recommendation:
                feasibility_score += 1
            elif '立即' in recommendation or '全面' in recommendation:
                feasibility_score -= 1
        return feasibility_score

# 示例使用
report_data = {
    'data': {
        'revenue': 1000000,
        'profit': 200000
    },
    'analysis': '公司业绩非常好，绝对领先于行业',
    'recommendations': ['立即削减成本', '优化产品结构']
}

source_data = {
    'revenue': 1000000,
    'profit': 250000
}

checker = ReportQualityChecker(report_data)
print("数据准确性检查结果:", checker.check_data_accuracy(source_data))
print("分析主观性评估结果:", checker.check_analysis_objectivity())
print("建议可行性评分:", checker.check_recommendation_feasibility())

5.10 财务报表分析发展趋势

5.10.1 大数据分析

"""
大数据财务分析实现
- 数据采集与清洗
- 数据挖掘与分析
- 智能决策支持
"""
import pandas as pd
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler

class BigDataFinancialAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, data):
        self.data = pd.DataFrame(data)
        
    def data_cleaning(self):
        """数据清洗"""
        self.data = self.data.dropna()
        self.data = self.data[self.data['revenue'] > 0]
        return self.data
        
    def data_mining(self):
        """数据挖掘"""
        scaler = StandardScaler()
        scaled_data = scaler.fit_transform(self.data[['revenue', 'profit']])
        kmeans = KMeans(n_clusters=3)
        self.data['cluster'] = kmeans.fit_predict(scaled_data)
        return self.data
        
    def intelligent_analysis(self):
        """智能分析"""
        cluster_analysis = self.data.groupby('cluster').agg({
            'revenue': ['mean', 'std'],
            'profit': ['mean', 'std']
        })
        return cluster_analysis

# 示例数据
data = {
    'company': ['A', 'B', 'C', 'D', 'E'],
    'revenue': [1000000, 1200000, 800000, 1500000, 900000],
    'profit': [200000, 250000, 150000, 300000, 180000]
}

analysis = BigDataFinancialAnalysis(data)
cleaned_data = analysis.data_cleaning()
print("清洗后的数据:\n", cleaned_data)
clustered_data = analysis.data_mining()
print("聚类分析结果:\n", clustered_data)
intelligent_analysis = analysis.intelligent_analysis()
print("智能分析结果:\n", intelligent_analysis)

5.10.2 人工智能应用

"""
AI财务分析实现
- 机器学习预测
- 深度学习分析
- 智能决策支持
"""
import numpy as np
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential
from tensorflow.keras.layers import Dense

class AIFinancialAnalysis:
    def __init__(self, data):
        self.data = data
        
    def machine_learning_prediction(self):
        """机器学习预测"""
        X = np.array(range(len(self.data))).reshape(-1, 1)
        y = self.data['revenue'].values
        model = RandomForestRegressor()
        model.fit(X, y)
        prediction = model.predict(np.array([[len(self.data) + 1]]))
        return prediction[0]
        
    def deep_learning_analysis(self):
        """深度学习分析"""
        model = Sequential([
            Dense(64, activation='relu', input_shape=(2,)),
            Dense(32, activation='relu'),
            Dense(1)
        ])
        model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mse')
        X = np.array([[x['revenue'], x['profit']] for x in self.data])
        y = np.array([x['profit'] for x in self.data])
        model.fit(X, y, epochs=50, verbose=0)
        return model
        
    def intelligent_decision(self, threshold):
        """智能决策"""
        predictions = []
        for item in self.data:
            if item['profit'] / item['revenue'] > threshold:
                predictions.append('投资')
            else:
                predictions.append('观望')
        return predictions

# 示例数据
data = [
    {'revenue': 1000000, 'profit': 200000},
    {'revenue': 1200000, 'profit': 250000},
    {'revenue': 800000, 'profit': 150000}
]

analysis = AIFinancialAnalysis(data)
print("机器学习预测结果:", analysis.machine_learning_prediction())
model = analysis.deep_learning_analysis()
print("深度学习模型:", model.summary())
print("智能决策结果:", analysis.intelligent_decision(0.2))

5.10.3 可视化技术

"""
财务数据可视化实现
- 交互式报表
- 动态图表
- 数据仪表盘
"""
import plotly.express as px
import dash
from dash import dcc, html
import pandas as pd

class FinancialVisualization:
    def __init__(self, data):
        self.data = pd.DataFrame(data)
        
    def interactive_report(self):
        """交互式报表"""
        fig = px.bar(self.data, x='period', y='revenue', 
                    title='季度收入分析', text='revenue')
        fig.update_traces(textposition='outside')
        return fig
        
    def dynamic_charts(self):
        """动态图表"""
        fig = px.line(self.data, x='period', y=['revenue', 'profit'],
                     title='收入与利润趋势')
        return fig
        
    def create_dashboard(self):
        """创建仪表盘"""
        app = dash.Dash()
        app.layout = html.Div([
            html.H1('财务分析仪表盘'),
            dcc.Graph(figure=self.interactive_report()),
            dcc.Graph(figure=self.dynamic_charts())
        ])
        return app

# 示例数据
data = {
    'period': ['2023-Q1', '2023-Q2', '2023-Q3'],
    'revenue': [1000000, 1200000, 1500000],
    'profit': [200000, 250000, 300000]
}

visualization = FinancialVisualization(data)
print("交互式报表已创建")
print("动态图表已创建")
dashboard = visualization.create_dashboard()
dashboard.run_server(debug=True)