股票市场是不是零和的？

本人不炒股，但是一直有个比较纠结的问题在心底，整个市场股票买入卖出，到底有没有真的价值在股市交易中创造出来呢？玩股票是不是一个盘子很大的零和游戏？

百度找不到给力解释，谷歌到一篇简单易懂的例子，半翻译半思考理解放到这里了，大家凑合看。

Is the Stock Market a Zero Sum Game?  原文链接点这里

I got this question in the Ask Cullen section over the weekend and Ithink it’s an important one since I seem to get it quite often.   It’sinteresting to note that there doesn’t actually seem to be a very good answeronline (at least not as far as my brief search went) so I used a brief (and probablyoverly simplistic) example to describe why the description of zero sum isincorrect.  This also works into the concept of “moneyness” in Monetary Realism quite nicely asyou’ll see that the stock market doesn’tnecessarily increase the amount of money in the system, but canincrease/decrease our wealth.股票市场不一定增加了系统中的钱的总量，但是增加了我们的财富。

 

“This concept confuses a lot of people, but it’s important because it touches on how stocks aremoney-like, but not necessarily high on the moneyness chart (because they mustbe converted into deposits in order to be used for transactions). Let’s work through an example that will help.

 

Let’s say you have 3 people and 1 corporation. Andthe 3 people all have $10 for a $30 total. And then the corporation decides toraise capital so it issues 4 shares of stock at $4 or $1 per share. Let’s assume two of ourpeople buy the entire issue and become owners of 2 shares each for a total of$2 each ($1 per share). So our corporation has $4 and our two investors own 2shares each valued at $1 per share ($4 market cap).   

有3个人和一个公司，3个人每个人有$10的现金，公司决定融资，发行了4个股票，每个价值 $1（IPO了）。假设我们中两个人买了所有的股票，每个人持有2股。因此公司有$4，我们两个投资者各拥有$2的股票。价值的第一次创造，价值$4：IPO，公司发行了4张值，从投资者那里换取了$4的现金，而投资者认为拿到了等额的股票。价值从投资者手中的$4现金变成了公司手中的$4现金和投资者手中的$4股权。

 

Then, a year later, for whatever reason, investor 1decides the stock is worth 100% more and tries to sell it on the stock exchangewhere person 3 purchases the 2 shares for $2 each ($1 higher than the IPOprice). Now person 3 owns 2 shares each valued at $2 for a total of $4 andperson 1 has $12 TOTAL of which $2 is their capital gains on the stock sale.Person 2 still own his 2 shares that are now worth $4 total ($2 unrealized capgains).

一年之后，投资者1认为股票更值钱，尝试在卖掉，person3以每股$2的价钱买了2股（比IPO的价格高了$1）。如今person3拥有2股且每股价值$2，而person1有$12,其中$2来自于股票交易。Person2还是只有当初持有的2股，但是价值$4（有两块钱是unrealized cap gains，持有资产，但是不将资产套利所得的收益）价值的第二次创造，价值$4：person3用$4现金换了2股，他认为是等值的，且前途光明。Person1就从交易中真的赚到了$2现金，他的财富切切实实的涨了$2。最微妙的增长来自于person2，由于person3的购买让市场认为该公司的股票的价值为 $2，相比发行时涨了$1，因此person2手中的股票也上升了$1，变成了每股$2。因此整个市场的价值其实是由于person3的看好，而导致所有股票的价格翻了一番，但真正的价值仍然未变。

 

Is there more money in the system? No. Person 1 has$12 (he had $10, invested $2 and generated a return of $2 for a total of $12 innet worth). Person 2 has $8 and shares of stock that he believes are now worth$4 (ie, he think he’s worth $12). Our corporation hasthe $4 they raised from investors 1 & 2. Person 3 has $6 plus shares thathe thinks are worth $4. But look what’s happened here. Our little economy isactually worth more! Person 1 has $12 where he once had $10. Person 2 has $8,but thinks he’s worth $12. Our corporation still has the cash of $4. And person3 has $6 plus the shares worth $4. So our corporation can invest the $4 in itsoperations, person 1 has benefited from his investment by increasing his networth by 20%, person 2 is worth 20% more (at least on paper) and person 3 iswhere he started but hopes the corporation will make wise investments so he canbenefit like investor 1 did.

如今系统的总钱数变多了吗？并没有，person1有12（10现金以及买卖股票获取的2）。person2有8，以及他认为价值4的股票。公司有通过募集资金获得的4，来自person1&2。Person3有$6现金以及认为价值4的股票。但是我们的小经济变得更有价值了，person1有了12，原来是10。Person2有$8但是他认为他有资产12。企业还是4。Person3是总价值10。Person1通过投资增加了净价值20%，person2有20%（纸上），person3没有进步但是他期待公司会make vise investment，就可以像person1一样获利。 原来整个小经济中，只有来自三个人的$30，如今已经变成了（公司$4+person1$12+person2$12+person3$10）=$38

 

I think I got all those numbers right there. So, zero sum isn’t the rightdescription in that a stock market can actually increase the overall wealth ofits participants (at least on paper)零和不是一个合适的描述，事实上所有参与者的财富总和提高了（至少在纸面上）…Also, I basically just described QE where peoplebid up stock prices without the underlying corporations actually changinganything. The economy is technically worth more, but that could be a mirage forall we know. This society’s obsessionwith unrealized stock market wealth is, quite frankly, absurd and misguided. It’s a real-time example ofcounting your chickens before they hatch.”数没有孵出来的小鸡（用现在的钱投资你对其未来预期的价值？）