PROBABILITY OF EVENTS（事件的可能性）

第1章
事件的可能性

1.1. Introduction
During his lecture in 1929, Bertrand Russel said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.” Most people have some vague ideas about what probability of an event means. The interpretation of the word probability involves synonyms such as chance, odds, uncertainty, prevalence, risk, expectancy etc.“We use probability when we want to make an armation,but are not quite sure,” writes J.R. Lucas.

1.1 简介

Bertrand Russel在1929年的演讲中说：“概率是现代科学中最重要的概念，特别是因为没有人会有丝毫概念意味着什么。”大多数人对于事件概率的含义有一些模糊的想法。对概率这个词的解释涉及机会，几率，不确定性，普遍性，风险，期望等同义词。“当我们想要制定一个armation时，我们会使用概率，但不太确定，”J.R. Lucas写道。

There are many distinct interpretations of the word probability. A complete discussion of these interpretations will take us to areas such as philosophy,theory of algorithm and randomness, religion, etc. Thus, we will only focus on two extreme interpretations. One interpretation is due to the so-called objective school and the other is due to the subjective school.The subjective school defines probabilities as subjective assignments based on rational thought with available information. Some subjective probabilists interpret probabilities as the degree of belief. Thus, it is dicult to interpret the probability of an event.

 对概率这个词有许多不同的解释。对这些解释的完整讨论将把我们带到诸如哲学，算法理论和随机性，宗教等领域。因此，我们只关注两种极端的解释。一种解释是由于所谓的客观学派，另一种解释是由于主观学派。主观学派将概率定义为基于理性思维和可用信息的主观任务。一些主观概率论者将概率解释为信念程度。因此，难以解释事件的概率。

The objective school defines probabilities to be “long run” relative frequencies.This means that one should compute a probability by taking thenumber of favorable outcomes of an experiment and dividing it by total numbers of the possible outcomes of the experiment, and then taking the limitas the number of trials becomes large. Some statisticians object to the word“long run”. The philosopher and statistician John Keynes said “in the long run we are all dead”. The objective school uses the theory developed by Von Mises (1928) and Kolmogorov (1965). The Russian mathematician Kolmogorov gave the solid foundation of probability theory using measure theory.The advantage of Kolmogorov’s theory is that one can construct probabilities according to the rules, compute other probabilities using axioms, and then interpret these probabilities

客观学校将概率定义为“长期”相对频率。这意味着应该通过获取实验的有利结果的数量并将其除以实验的可能结果的总数来计算概率，然后采用限制 试验次数变大。 一些统计学家反对“长期”这个词。 哲学家和统计学家约翰凯恩斯说“从长远来看，我们都死了”。 客观学校使用Von Mises（1928）和Kolmogorov（1965）开发的理论。 俄罗斯数学家Kolmogorov使用测度理论给出了概率论的坚实基础.Kolmogorov理论的优点是可以根据规则构造概率，使用公理计算其他概率，然后解释这些概率。

In this book, we will study mathematically one interpretation of probabilityout of many. In fact, we will study probability theory based on thetheory developed by the late Kolmogorov. There are many applications ofprobability theory. We are studying probability theory because we would like to study mathematical statistics. Statistics is concerned with the development of methods and their applications for collecting, analyzing and interpreting quantitative data in such a way that the reliability of a conclusion based on data may be evaluated objectively by means of probability statements. Probability theory is used to evaluate the reliability of conclusions and inferences based on data. Thus, probability theory is fundamental to mathematical statistics.
For an event A of a discrete sample space S, the probability of A can becomputed by using the formula

在本书中，我们将在数学上研究许多概率的一种解释。 事实上，我们将研究基于晚期Kolmogorov开发的理论的概率论。 概率论有很多应用。 我们正在研究概率论，因为我们想研究数学统计。 统计数据涉及方法的发展及其收集，分析和解释定量数据的应用，以便可以通过概率陈述客观地评估基于数据的结论的可靠性。 概率论用于评估基于数据的结论和推论的可靠性。 因此，概率论是数理统计的基础。
对于离散样本空间S的事件A，可以使用公式计算A的概率。

where N(A) denotes the number of elements of A and N(S) denotes the number of elements in the sample space S. For a discrete case, the probability of an event A can be computed by counting the number of elements in A and dividing it by the number of elements in the sample space S. In the next section, we develop various counting techniques. The branch of mathematics that deals with the various counting techniques is called combinatorics

其中N（A）表示A的元素数，N（S）表示样本空间S中的元素数。对于离散情况，可以通过计算A中元素的数量来计算事件A的概率。 并将其除以样本空间S中的元素数量。在下一节中，我们将开发各种计数技术。 处理各种计数技术的数学分支称为组合学。

1.2. Counting Techniques
There are three basic counting techniques. They are multiplication rule,permutation and combination.
1.2.1 Multiplication Rule. 
If E1 is an experiment with n1 outcomes and E2 is an experiment with n2 possible outcomes, then the experiment which consists of performing E1 first and then E2 consists of n1n2 possible outcomes.

1.2。 计数技巧
有三种基本的计数技术。 它们是乘法规则，置换和组合。
1.2.1乘法规则。
如果E1是n1结果的实验，而E2是n2可能结果的实验，那么由首先执行E1然后执行E2的实验包括n1n2个可能的结果。

Example 1.1. Find the possible number of outcomes in a sequence of two tosses of a fair coin.
Answer: The number of possible outcomes is 2 · 2 = 4. This is evident from the following tree diagram.

例1.1。 找到一个公平硬币的两次投掷序列中可能的结果数量。
答案：可能结果的数量是2·2 = 4.从以下树形图中可以看出这一点。

Example 1.2. Find the number of possible outcomes of the rolling of a die and then tossing a coin.
Answer: Here n1 = 6 and n2 = 2. Thus by multiplication rule, the number of possible outcomes is 12

例1.2。 找出骰子滚动然后扔硬币的可能结果的数量。
答案：这里n1 = 6且n2 = 2.因此，通过乘法规则，可能结果的数量为12

Example 1.3. How many di↵erent license plates are possible if Kentucky uses three letters followed by three digits.

例1.3。 如果肯塔基州使用三个字母后跟三位数字，可以使用多少个不同的牌照。