毕业生的序列游戏 期望DP

毕业生的序列游戏

solution

$dp[i][j]表示i个a，j个ab的概率，添加a的概率为p,添加b的概率为q$

$ifi+j<k(如果放b，ab个数+i，即加上先前a的个数):$

$$dp[i+1][j]+=dp[i][j]\ast p//放a$$$$dp[i][i+j]+=dp[i][j]\ast q/放b$$

$else:（考虑到可以无限加a，ab个数始终不会超过k，故预先计算期望）$

$T=pq+2p^{2}q+...+n{p}^n+...+\infty p^{\infty }$

$pT=p^{2}q+2p^{3}q+...+n{p}^{n+1}+...+\infty p^{\infty }$

$(1-p)T=q\frac{p}{1-p}=>T=\frac{p}{q}$

$$res+=dp[i][j]\ast (i+j+T)$$

code

#include <bits/stdc++.h>
using namespace std;
#define Inv(x) quick_pow(x, mod - 2)
using ll = long long;
using ld = double;
const int mod = 1e9 + 7;
ll quick_pow(ll ans, ll p, ll res = 1) {
    for(; p; p >>= 1, ans = ans * ans % mod)
        if(p & 1) res = res * ans % mod;
    return res % mod;
}
ll dp[1010][1010];
int main() {
    int k; ll pa, pb; cin >> k >> pa >> pb;
    ll p = pa * Inv(pa + pb) % mod, q = pb * Inv(pa + pb) % mod;
    ll res = 0;
    dp[1][0] = 1;
    for(int i = 1; i <= k; ++ i) {
        for(int j = 0; j <= k; ++ j) {
            if(i + j < k) {
                dp[i + 1][j] = (dp[i + 1][j] + dp[i][j] * p % mod) % mod;
                dp[i][i + j] = (dp[i][i + j] + dp[i][j] * q % mod) % mod;
            } else {
                res = (res + dp[i][j] * (i + j + p * Inv(q) % mod) % mod) % mod;
            }
        }
    }
    cout << res << '\n';
    return 0;
}