STA 137 Final projectR

Java Python STA 137 Final project

You need to analyze the Central African Republic Exports time series as attached. The given data set contains 9 variables. Please focus on the Exports variable. It is a time series whose sample size is n = 58. It is the yearly Central African Republic Exports time series from 1960 to 2017.

You should write a concise report summarizing your analysis. The report should be no longer than three (typed) pages, not counting any R output, graphs, etc., which you may wish to include as support or illustration for your analysis. The style. of the report is up to you, but the best reports will address many of the questions and details studied in class when we discussed the relevant type of analysis using the ARIMA model.

Some things to include should be:

1. A description of the data set, with some background. Here I only provide the data. You may try to STA 137 Final projectR google some related background on the Central African Republic Exports data and summarize some useful information.

2. Following the seven steps discussed in class to analyze the data set. In your report, you need to provide detailed analysis based on the R outputs. For example, what is your fitted model? Have you tried some transforms on the data before applying ARIMA? Why do you choose this model (model selection)? Are the coefficients significant? What is your diagnosis of the model? How do the forecasts look like? Do not only enclose the R outputs, you need to focus on the analysis. Using words, numbers, equations and formulas to explain your results!

3. Your overall conclusions about the data, based on your analysis.

A key trick to write a good report: Image that you are writing something to your man-ager/boss/supervisor/client who does not know too much about time series