Harvard statistics 110, video 5 note(conditioning II)

8:25 2014-10-05
start Harvard statistics 110, video 5


conditioning continued


8:25 2014-10-05
probability is how to think about uncertainty & randomness


8:26 2014-10-05
thinking conditionally is the condition for thinking


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partition


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LOTP == Law Of Total Probability


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P(T|D), P(D|T)


D == Disease, T == Test


8:59 2014-10-05
confusing P(A|B) & P(B|A) is called 


"prosecutor's fallacy"


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P(A)   // prior: before we have evidence


P(A|B) // posterior: aftere we have evidence


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confusing independence & conditional independence


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Defn: Events A & B are conditionally independent given C


if P(AB|C) = P(A|C) * P(B|C)


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Does independence implies conditional independence? NO