中国经济正站在新周期的起点上

交割的美油远期价格已经回到50美元/桶以上，这个价格水平足以支撑原油开采活动在未来两个月稳定下来。但如果油价目前的上行趋势可以持续，页岩油生产商会毫不犹豫地将其看作增产信号，重新实施大规模开采计划。
美国页岩油开采活动和WTI油价的变化息息相关，特别是页岩油开采商用来套期保值进行对冲，减少风险的远期油价。
在2016年2月和2017年1月，原油远期价格的飙升刺激了页岩油生产商开发更多备用油井进行增产。
自从近年来油价大跌后，活跃油井数量就一直在下降。直到2016年5月才开始再次上升，而原油产量是从2016年10月开始上升的。
活跃油井数量变化通常会比远期油价变化滞后16周到20周，而原油产量一般会再滞后5到6个月。
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