担心百分九十不会发生_它不会发生在我身上

担心百分九十不会发生

The San Antonio riverwalk was most beautiful in the early morning before it became overly populated with tourists, sailors and shoppers. It was my last morning there and I wanted to enjoy one more walk along the river before my noon flight. I was a tourist in a certain sense. But the trip had been mostly business for me, conducting user research with the veteran’s Administration.

清晨，圣安东尼奥河滨步道最美丽，然后到处都是游客，水手和购物者。 那是我的最后一个早晨，我想在中午飞行之前再沿着河边散步。 从某种意义上说，我是一名游客。 但是这次旅行对我来说主要是事事，与退伍军人管理局进行了用户研究。

My co-worker, Sebastian decided to join me this morning, having spotted me in the lobby. I was mildly annoyed because I wanted to take in the beautiful scenery on my own. But I liked Sebastian a lot and had to admit he was entertaining company.

我的同事塞巴斯蒂安(Sebastian)今天上午在大厅发现我后，决定加入我的行列。 我很生气，因为我想独自欣赏美丽的风景。 但是我非常喜欢塞巴斯蒂安，不得不承认他是娱乐公司。

We decided to grab a cup of coffee and sit outside before our walk. We find a spot, sit down and make small talk. Sebastian tells me he could stay here forever. By 3 pm, we’ll be back in Chicago. It was snowing before we left last week. It’s already 72 degrees in San Antonio.

我们决定去喝杯咖啡，然后步行出去。 我们找到一个位置，坐下来闲聊。 塞巴斯蒂安告诉我他可以永远待在这里。 到下午3点，我们将回到芝加哥。 我们上周离开之前，下雪了。 在圣安东尼奥，已经是72度了。

Sebastian mentions how he’s dreading the return to Chicago. He brings up the weather, the crime rate and a recent string of murders, insinuating he fears becoming a victim sometimes. I look over at him. He’s smoking a cigarette and eating a donut. I subtly point out he probably has a greater chance of becoming a statistic as a result of his diet and smoking than he does from crime in Chicago. He smiles sheepishly.

塞巴斯蒂安(Sebastian)提到他对返回芝加哥的恐惧。 他谈到天气，犯罪率和最近发生的一系列谋杀事件，这暗示着他担心有时会成为受害者。 我看着他。 他在抽烟，吃甜甜圈。 我巧妙地指出，与他在芝加哥的犯罪活动相比，他的饮食和吸烟可能使他成为统计学家的可能性更大。 他sheep笑着。

I see this a lot. People who have a fear of flying, for example, don’t understand their chances of having a fatal accident are far greater in a car on the way to the airport. People who fear death of some disease or disorder don’t wash their hands before eating or after using the restroom. People who fear the side effects of a treatment or medicine, don’t seem to fear the effects of their lifestyle choices.

我经常看到这一点。 例如，担心飞行的人不知道在飞往机场的途中，发生致命事故的机会要大得多。 担心因某种疾病或疾病而死亡的人在进食前或使用洗手间后请勿洗手。 害怕治疗或药物副作用的人似乎并不担心自己选择的生活方式的影响。

It’s just one simple question we need to ask ourselves. It’s that one question that can help shift our perspective and, perhaps, change our behavior. What are the odds?

这只是我们需要问自己一个简单的问题。 正是这个问题可以帮助我们改变看法，也许可以改变我们的行为。 几率是多少？

The recent Coronavirus outbreak has brought this question into my mind more than once. It has been an interesting study in behavior change as well. As we watch states refuse to execute shelter in place orders, spring break students gathering on beaches and churches continue to congregate, it’s clear many of us do not have a clear grasp of the reality closing in on us. But what is the reality? What, I ask again, are the odds?

最近的冠状病毒爆发使我不止一次地想到了这个问题。 这也是关于行为改变的有趣研究。 当我们看到各州拒绝执行临时安置令时，春假的学生聚集在海滩上和教堂里继续聚集，很明显，我们当中的许多人对即将到来的现实并不十分清楚。 但是现实是什么？ 我再问一次，几率是多少？

With Coronavirus, that question isn’t easy to answer. It’s not something most of us can wrap our heads around. We know it’s bad, want to avoid spreading it and stay inside wallowing in fear. Some of us don’t fear and that might be the most fearful segment of the population.

对于冠状病毒， 这个问题很难回答 。 这不是我们大多数人都可以包扎的东西。 我们知道这很糟糕，希望避免传播它，并让自己陷入恐惧之中。 我们中的一些人不惧怕，这可能是人口中最可怕的部分。

In healthcare, we often rely on risk assessments for complicated scenarios. Yet, there are very few risk assessment “calculators” available to determine what your odds are of contracting Coronavirus. The risk assessments are not sophisticated enough, as of yet, to give us much more than the criteria behind the risk (ex: being older, traveling, etc.) or your chance of death as a result of contracting the virus.

在医疗保健中，对于复杂的情况，我们经常依靠风险评估。 但是，很少有风险评估“计算器”可用来确定您感染冠状病毒的几率。 到目前为止，风险评估还不够完善，无法为我们提供远远超出风险背后的标准(例如，年龄较大，旅行等)或因感染病毒而死亡的机会。

There are a few assessments to determine the mortality rate of Coronavirus based on risk factors. There is also a meeting risk calculator that will show you the chances of contracting COVID-19 in a meeting room full of people, given your locale, the current rate of spread and other risk factors. That’s a first step.

有一些评估可以根据危险因素确定冠状病毒的死亡率 。 还有一个会议风险计算器 ，它会向您显示在人满为患的会议室中签定COVID-19的机会，这取决于您的区域设置，当前的传播速度和其他风险因素。 这是第一步。

Risk assessments are pretty simple on the front end and can be used for a number of disorders. You plug in demographic information about a patient (or yourself) — age, weight, height, medical history and other criteria. Depending on the risk assessment you choose, the patient will sometimes receive a score they can then use to asses their overall risk.

风险评估在前端非常简单，可用于多种疾病。 您插入有关患者(或您自己)的人口统计信息-年龄，体重，身高，病史和其他条件。 根据您选择的风险评估，患者有时会获得一个分数，然后可以用来评估其总体风险。

For example, cardiac risk assessments are one of the more popular scores a patient can receive. A quick input of your demographic information along with smoking history, cholesterol numbers and blood pressure can return a number indicating your risk. It’s formulaic. We can perform similar assessments for other risks, such as falls (your risk of falling), stroke, rehospitalization and all sorts of cancers.

例如， 心脏风险评估是患者可以接受的最受欢迎的评分之一。 快速输入您的人口统计信息以及吸烟史，胆固醇值和血压可以返回一个数字，表明您有患病风险。 这是公式化的。 我们可以对其他风险(例如跌倒 (您跌倒的风险)， 中风 ，再次住院和各种癌症 )进行类似的评估。

In many ways, knowing what the odds are for a given scenario to occur can be a powerful element to changing behavior. Sometimes it isn’t. Sometimes visualizing the odds (the data) in a more tangible way can be extremely effective. One way to do this is to use a “Cause-and-Effect” simulation as outlined in B.J. Fogg’s book, Persuasive Technology: Using Computers to Change What We Think and Do.

在许多方面，了解给定场景发生的可能性是改变行为的重要因素。 有时候不是。 有时以更明显的方式可视化赔率(数据)可能非常有效。 一种做到这一点的方法是使用BJ Fogg的书《 说服技术：使用计算机来改变我们的思维和行为 》中概述的“因果关系”模拟。

In his book, Fogg discusses a computer simulation titled, HIV Roulette, where participants could choose criteria such as geolocation and the partner they wish to have sexual relations with. The computer will then run the algorithm and spit out the results.

Fogg在他的书中讨论了一个名为HIV Roulette的计算机模拟，参与者可以在其中选择诸如地理位置和希望与之发生性关系的伴侣之类的标准。 然后，计算机将运行算法并吐出结果。

HIV Roulette simulation HIV轮盘模拟

You could do this with a calculator on your own if you know the math. But the simulation gives the results a sense of reality not likely experienced in just seeing a number. It also illustrates the element of chance and randomness in our choices.

如果您知道数学，则可以自己使用计算器来完成。 但是，模拟给结果带来了一种现实感，而不仅仅是看到一个数字就不可能体验到。 它还说明了我们选择中机会和随机性的要素。

Technology coupled with design could produce some, similar, effective simulations for Coronavirus. This technology that Fogg describes is an attempt to combat a cognitive bias within our psychology. That bias often leads us to believe we have a better chance than others of not experiencing some negative or unforeseen event.

技术与设计相结合可以对冠状病毒产生一些相似的有效模拟。 Fogg描述的这项技术是一种旨在消除我们心理学内的认知偏差的尝试。 这种偏见常常使我们相信，与其他人相比，我们有更好的机会不经历一些负面或不可预见的事件。

“It won’t happen to me.” That’s what my friend Sebastian was thinking as I pointed out his choice of a breakfast doughnut and cigarette. Heart disease, diabetes, stroke or cancer. Those were all things that happened to someone else. Coronavirus is something that happens to other people. Not me or you. For some reason, we psychologically insulate ourselves from risk while at the same time having immense fear over those same things. It’s baffling.

“这不会发生在我身上。” 我的朋友塞巴斯蒂安(Sebastian)就是这么想的，我指出他选择早餐甜甜圈和香烟。 心脏病，糖尿病，中风或癌症。 这些都是别人发生的一切。 冠状病毒是其他人发生的事情。 不是我还是你 出于某种原因，我们在心理上使自己远离风险，同时又对这些相同的事物感到恐惧。 莫名其妙。

This is what is known as optimism bias. It’s why we see people smoking. It’s why we see college students partying on a crowded beach during an outbreak. We all experience this bias. Have you ever thought you are a better driver than other drivers on the road? Studies have shown drivers often overestimate their driving ability as a result of this cognitive mechanism.

这就是所谓的乐观偏见。 这就是为什么我们看到人们吸烟。 这就是为什么我们看到大学生在爆发期间在拥挤的海滩上聚会的原因。 我们都遇到这种偏见。 您是否曾经以为自己比公路上的其他司机更好？ 研究表明，由于这种认知机制，驾驶员常常高估了他们的驾驶能力 。

This sort of psychology is probably built into us as humans. We refuse to believe something like cancer or heart disease can happen to us. We refuse to believe we could contract a virus. Most humans don’t even contemplate their own death — a statistical certainty. It won’t happen to me. But the random nature of events in life proves time and again that we often will be victims of some disease, a crime or some event we deem unlikely.

这种心理很可能是人类固有的。 我们拒绝相信像癌症或心脏病之类的事情会发生在我们身上。 我们拒绝相信我们会感染病毒。 大多数人甚至都不考虑自己的死亡-统计上的确定性。 这不会发生在我身上。 但是生活中事件的随机性一次又一次地证明，我们经常会成为某些疾病，犯罪或我们认为不太可能发生的事件的受害者。

Understanding the odds or the statistics around some event isn’t enough. Even if the odds are low, it doesn’t mean it won’t happen to you. So, should my friend Sebastian worry more about his doughnut and cigarette breakfast or crime in Chicago? Probably both (depending on where he lives in Chicago). But his priority would clearly be addressing his lifestyle first…if he’s playing the odds.

仅仅了解某个事件的赔率或统计信息还不够。 即使赔率很低，也并不意味着您不会发生。 那么，我的朋友塞巴斯蒂安是否应该为自己的甜甜圈和香烟早餐或在芝加哥犯罪感到更担心？ 可能两者都有(取决于他在芝加哥的住所)。 但是他的首要任务显然是首先解决他的生活方式……如果他在努力。

Should you worry about coronavirus or the flu? Or maybe you should worry about some other danger like your daily commute, given that automobile accidents are a leading cause of death for Americans. The way I like to look at issues such as this one is to focus on what I can control and what I cannot control.

您应该担心冠状病毒还是流感？ 或许，您应该担心日常通勤等其他危险，因为交通事故是美国人死亡的主要原因。 我喜欢看这类问题的方式是关注于我可以控制和无法控制的东西。

Let’s consider crime. Maybe you fear being mugged or assaulted on the city streets. The odds of this happening to you are probably pretty slim to begin with. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But there are precautions you can take to minimize the odds of something like this happening to you. Buddy up, don’t get on an empty train, don’t walk down dark alleys with a roll of cash peaking out of your pocket. These precautions are pretty basic and don’t require much effort.

让我们考虑犯罪。 也许您担心在城市街道上遭到抢劫或殴打。 首先，发生这种情况的可能性很小。 这并不意味着它不会发生。 但是，您可以采取一些预防措施来最大程度地降低发生这种情况的几率。 伙计们，不要坐空火车，不要走在黑暗的小巷里，口袋里有一堆现金高峰。 这些预防措施是非常基本的，不需要太多的努力。

Now let’s consider coronavirus. The odds of contracting the virus significantly decrease with a few precautions — good hand hygiene, keeping a physical distance from people, staying home, minimizing human contact, etc. It’s pretty simple, really. Once you’ve taken these precautions, contracting the virus is ruled by little more than randomness. There isn’t really much sense in worrying about events ruled by randomness or chance since you have eliminated the variables you have control over, which factor into contagion.

现在让我们考虑冠状病毒。 采取一些预防措施后，感染病毒的几率将大大降低-良好的手部卫生，与人保持物理距离，呆在家里，尽量减少与人的接触等。这确实非常简单。 一旦采取了这些预防措施，感染病毒的原则就是随机性。 担心由随机性或偶然性决定的事件并没有太大意义，因为您消除了可以控制的变量，而这些变量会导致传染。

Before any of this can happen though, we have to have some motivation around an issue. With COVID-19, the primary motivating factor is fear of contracting the virus. This is where I think we initially failed and are still failing. People simply did not believe it could happen to them. They didn’t understand the odds.

但是，在发生任何此类事情之前，我们必须有一个解决问题的动力。 对于COVID-19，主要诱因是害怕感染病毒。 我认为这是我们最初失败的地方，现在仍然失败。 人们根本不相信这会发生在他们身上。 他们不了解赔率。

That problem is only being addressed through detailed reporting of the infection rate. You don’t have to dig too hard to find a map showing the spread of COVID-19. But what if we went a step further? What if you went to an authoritative website like the CDC and could plug some numbers for a risk assessment — a simulation?

这个问题只能通过详细报告感染率来解决。 您无需太费劲就能找到显示COVID-19传播情况的地图。 但是，如果我们走得更远呢？ 如果您访问CDC之类的权威网站并且可以插入一些数字进行风险评估(模拟)怎么办？

This assessment could ask you about hand hygiene, social contact, basic demographics, how many trips to the store you take each day and whether you work in an office or at home. Then it could simulate (and visualize) your chances of contracting COVID-19 the same way the HIV roulette program simulated the outcome of a chosen sexual partner. Finally, it could make recommendations.

这项评估可能会询问您有关手部卫生，社会交往，基本人口统计信息，您每天去商店多少次以及是否在办公室还是在家中工作。 然后，它可以模拟(并可视化)您感染COVID-19的机会，就像HIV轮盘赌程序模拟选定性伴侣的结果一样。 最后，它可以提出建议。

What if this simulation could also tell you how many other people you would likely infect before you discovered you were infected? What if it could extrapolate the risk and visualize how many within your own social circle would also contract the virus? And how many people would they infect? The results could show how you — one, single person — placed additional strain on the healthcare system. The final aspect of the visualization could show how many people died as a result of you contracting the virus. Those could be powerful visualizations.

如果该模拟还可以告诉您在发现自己被感染之前可能还会感染多少其他人，该怎么办？ 如果它可以推断出风险并可视化您自己的社交圈中还会感染该病毒怎么办？ 他们会感染多少人？ 结果可以显示您(一个人)如何给医疗保健系统带来额外的压力。 可视化的最后方面可以显示有多少人因感染该病毒而死亡。 这些可能是强大的可视化。

I think in the United States we got it wrong. We just said there was a problem. (We actually didn’t even say that at first.) Federal and local governments just said, “We got this thing spreading” and then told you what to do. In the beginning, there wasn’t a lot of focus placed on motivating people — giving them the odds, helping them understand it could happen to them and their role in preventing the spread.

我认为在美国，我们做错了。 我们只是说有问题。 (实际上，我们起初甚至没有这么说。)联邦政府和地方政府只是说：“这件事正在传播”，然后告诉您该怎么做。 刚开始时，并没有把很多精力放在激励人们上—给他们带来机会，帮助他们了解这可能会发生在他们身上，以及他们在防止扩散方面的作用。

We went straight from fear to recommendations in the U.S. We didn’t normalize the factors and the odds very well. We didn’t do a very good job of helping people understand they aren’t special, but that they have a special (and crucial) role in beating back the spread. We missed this key component in motivating humans for behavior change.

在美国，我们从恐惧直接转向了建议。我们没有很好地将因素和可能性归一化。 帮助人们了解他们并不特殊的过程中，我们做得不是很好，但是他们在击败传播方面起着特殊的(也是至关重要的)作用。 我们错过了激励人们改变行为的关键要素。

To be fair, it is always easier to play Monday morning quarterback than to actually be in the game. And, we didn’t understand as much then. But we’re there now and we have enough knowledge along with the technological capability to do something more than just hand down a series of recommendations.

公平地说，星期一早上四分卫比实际比赛总是容易。 而且，那时我们还不太了解。 但是我们现在就在那里，我们拥有足够的知识以及技术能力，不仅可以提出一系列建议，还可以做更多的事情。

With the technology we have today, we could have placed a simulation on every major health website in the world such as WHO, NIH, CDC, NLM and usa.gov/health. Instead, we sent a bunch of emails — most of which were little more than marketing spam. Instead, we panicked and bought a lot of toilette paper. The risk of running out of toilette paper during a pandemic may far outweigh the risks of contracting COVID-19, but the consequences are incomparable.

利用我们今天拥有的技术，我们可以在世界上每个主要的健康网站(例如WHO，NIH，CDC，NLM和usa.gov/health)上进行仿真 。 相反，我们发送了一堆电子邮件-其中大部分只是营销垃圾邮件。 相反，我们惊慌失措，买了很多淡纸。 大流行期间用完厕纸的风险可能远远超过感染COVID-19的风险，但后果是无与伦比的。

I fervently hope this virus changes our world and how we approach healthcare — especially in the United States. It is my hope that this pandemic will bring healthcare into this century. Technology is more of a burden in healthcare today than a help. But with the right application, technology can change our behavior and become more of asset than it ever has been.

我热切希望这种病毒能改变我们的世界以及我们对医疗保健的态度，尤其是在美国。 我希望这种大流行能将医疗保健带入本世纪。 在当今的医疗保健领域，技术比帮助更重。 但是，通过正确的应用，技术可以改变我们的行为，并变得比以往任何时候都更有价值。

But none of this probably matters because it won’t happen to you. Right?

但是这些都不重要，因为它不会发生在您身上。 对？

翻译自: https://blog.prototypr.io/it-wont-happen-to-me-438e59d5ad42

担心百分九十不会发生