python 进程生命周期_计算客户生命周期价值的python解决方案

python 进程生命周期

By Lisa Cohen, Zhining Deng, Shijing Fang, and Ron Sielinski

由丽莎·科恩，志宁邓，石井方和罗恩Sielinski

Customer lifetime value (LTV) is a powerful concept. It provides a comprehensive perspective on the end-to-end customer experience by incorporating customer growth and retention trends into a single metric. In Azure, our goal is to ensure that customers are successful on the cloud, at all steps in their transformation journey. Therefore, it’s useful to have this summary metric to track our progress.

客户生命周期价值(LTV)是一个强大的概念。 通过将客户增长和保留趋势整合到一个指标中，它提供了有关端到端客户体验的全面视角。 在Azure中，我们的目标是确保客户在转型过程中的所有步骤中都能在云上取得成功。 因此，使用此摘要指标来跟踪我们的进度很有用。

介绍 (Introduction)

In this article, we’ll go into our specific implementation of LTV. But first, we’ll share some foundational context about our customer flows and the general LTV calculation, to keep us all on the same page. If you’d like skip ahead, please click here to read about our cohort-based modeling approach.

在本文中，我们将介绍LTV的特定实现。 但是首先，我们将分享有关客户流和LTV总体计算的一些基础情况，以使我们保持一致。 如果您想跳过，请单击此处以了解我们基于队列的建模方法。

Below is an overview of our customer onboarding funnel. At any given point in time, we have a number of different product and program changes in flight to enhance the customer experience. However, when evaluating the impact of these changes, we might find that they help one part of the funnel but hurt another. For example, if we launch a new service, the announcement can drive a lot of sign-ups and perhaps even initial usage. If for some reason the service fails to deliver on expectations though, we will also see an increase in churn. If we only look at the upper funnel impact, we might conclude that the launch was successful. Given this, we always need to ensure we’re taking an end-to-end perspective to ensure that the change we’re evaluating is truly delivering on customer needs. Here is an overview of the Azure trial customer funnel, to give a sense of the stages:

以下是我们的客户入门渠道的概述。 在任何给定的时间点，我们都会进行许多不同的产品和程序更改，以增强客户体验。 但是，在评估这些更改的影响时，我们可能会发现它们有助于漏斗的一部分，但又伤害了另一部分。 例如，如果我们启动一项新服务，则公告可能会导致很多注册，甚至可能是首次使用。 如果由于某种原因该服务未能达到预期效果，则客户流失率还会增加。 如果只看漏斗的上部影响，我们可能会得出结论，发布成功。 因此，我们始终需要确保采用端到端的观点，以确保我们正在评估的变更能够真正满足客户的需求。 以下是Azure试用客户渠道的概述，以了解各个阶段：

Performance indicators that combine multiple metrics into one are called composite scores. Some composite scores have the downside that they are not meaningful in and of themselves. However, customer lifetime value has the benefit of a specific meaning. It represents the total net profit from a single customer. By projecting the expected lifespan of the customer (using retention rates), the net spend (using historical purchase data), and the gross margin (by incorporating costs), we can calculate the expected customer value over time. Given that the metric also takes costs into account, it provides a way to monitor efficiencies and ensure that we’re taking advantage of any opportunities to improve there as well.

将多个指标合并为一个的绩效指标称为综合评分。 一些综合评分的缺点是它们本身并没有意义。 但是，客户生命周期价值具有特定含义的好处。 它代表单个客户的总净利润。 通过预测客户的预期寿命(使用保留率)，净支出(使用历史购买数据)和毛利率(通过合并成本)，我们可以计算出预期的客户价值。 鉴于该指标还考虑了成本，因此它提供了一种监控效率并确保我们也利用任何机会进行改进的方法。

方法 (Methodology)

In this section, we’ll demonstrate how we produce the LTV metric for Azure customers, and use formulas that you can apply to your dataset as well.

在本节中，我们将演示如何为Azure客户生成LTV指标，以及如何使用适用于数据集的公式。

式 (Formula)

Here is the overall formula for customer lifetime value (LTV):

这是客户生命周期价值(LTV)的整体公式：

As you can see, the LTV calculation has three major parameters. Below are the definitions for each of these terms.

如您所见，LTV计算具有三个主要参数。 以下是每个术语的定义。

1)保证金 (1) Margin)

The “Margin” here refers to the gross margin for your product expressed as a percentage. This is a good metric to monitor your efficiencies. To calculate it, first subtract the cost of goods sold (COGS) from the revenue that you earn to determine the net profit. Then divide by the revenue to calculate the gross margin percentage. Here is the formula:

此处的“保证金”是指产品的毛利率，以百分比表示。 这是监视您的效率的好指标。 要进行计算，首先要从您获得的收入中减去销售成本(COGS)，以确定净利润。 然后，将收入除以计算毛利率百分比。 公式如下：

In the case of Azure, cost of goods sold includes a number of factors, such as the computing power and building costs to run the services in our data centers, promotional costs (advertising, credits, events), par