揭穿破产神话

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Welcome to Buy/Sell/Hold, Marker’s weekly newsletter that’s 100% business intelligence and 0% investment advice. Each week, our writers Steve LeVine and Rob Walker make sense of the most important developments in business and why they matter.

欢迎阅读Marker的每周时事通讯“买/卖/持有”，它是100％商业智能和0％投资建议。 每周，我们的作家Steve LeVine和Rob Walker都会了解业务中最重要的发展及其重要性。

We know you’re busy, so think of our Buy/Sell/Hold labels as shorthand metaphor: a Buy if we view it as a positive trend or clever move; a Sell if it’s a disastrous mistake or a missed opportunity; or a Hold if it’s noteworthy but too early to call.

我们知道您很忙，因此可以将我们的“买/卖/持有”标签看作是速记的隐喻：“ 买”，如果我们将其视为积极趋势或明智之举； 如果是灾难性的错误或错失的机会，则卖出 ； 或保留(如果值得注意，但通话时间过早)。

揭穿破产神话 (Debunking the Bankruptcy Myth)

The Buy/Sell/Hold Analysis

买/卖/持有分析

Brooks Brothers, the iconic men’s clothier founded in 1818, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this Wednesday, to the surprise of no one. Bankruptcy has become an endlessly recurring theme since Covid-19 lockdowns began earlier this year, walloping consumer-facing businesses — particularly retailers and restaurants. J. Crew, J.C. Penney, Lucky, Chuck E. Cheese, Hertz, Gold’s Gym, GNC, Neiman Marcus, Le Pain Quotidien, the largest Pizza Hut franchisee, and others have already gone the Chapter 11 route. The volume of brands is unnerving — as if everyone’s local mall suddenly devolved into a Mad Max set.

Ø弟兄KS兄弟，标志性的男人的服装店成立于1818年， 申请第11章破产保护这个星期三，没有一个的惊喜。 自从今年早些时候开始Covid-19锁定以来，破产已经成为无休止的反复主题 ，从而削弱了面向消费者的业务，尤其是零售商和餐馆。 J. Crew，JC Penney，Lucky，Chuck E. Cheese，Hertz，Gold's Gym，GNC，Neiman Marcus，Le Pain Quotidien，最大的必胜客特许经营者，以及其他一些公司已经走到了第11章。 品牌的数量令人不快-好像每个人的本地购物中心突然变成了Mad Max套装。

Or at least that’s how it comes across to much of the general public. The reality is a little more nuanced. Even if demand for formal work attire is unlikely to rebound in the near future, Brooks Brothers isn’t going to disappear overnight. The point of seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection is to restructure debt and get enough relief from creditors to reorganize and seek new investment. Ideally, a company that goes through Chapter 11 emerges as a more viable entity — Marvel Entertainment, which went bankrupt in the 1990s, is a famous success story. Brooks Brothers is reportedly looking for a buyer.

或至少这是许多普通民众所了解的方式。 现实有些微妙。 即使对正式工作服装的需求在不久的将来不太可能反弹，布鲁克斯兄弟也不会在一夜之间消失 。 寻求第11章破产保护的重点是重组债务并从债权人那里获得足够的救济，以进行重组和寻求新的投资。 理想情况下，经历第11章的公司会成为一个更可行的实体 - 1990年代破产的 Marvel Entertainment是一个著名的成功故事。 据报道，布鲁克斯兄弟正在寻找买家 。

To be sure, Chapter 11 is still a painful process, especially for businesses that were already struggling pre-pandemic. I took a close look this week at one of the sadder stories of this bankruptcy boom: Pier 1 Imports. When it filed for bankruptcy protection in February, everyone’s favorite seller of papasan chairs did have a plan that would allow it to survive with roughly half its locations, a better product mix, and a stronger e-commerce business. But then came the black swan shutdowns; revenue dried up and potential investors fled. The company is now liquidating completely.

可以肯定的是，第11章仍然是一个痛苦的过程，特别是对于已经在大流行前挣扎的企业。 本周，我仔细观察了这场破产热潮的悲惨故事之一 ：Pier 1 Imports。 当它在2月份申请破产保护时，每个人都喜欢的木瓜椅子卖家确实制定了一项计划，使其能够在大约一半的地点得以生存，更好的产品组合以及更强大的电子商务业务。 但是随后黑天鹅关闭了。 收入枯竭，潜在的投资者逃离。 该公司现在正在完全清算。

So a wave of bankruptcies won’t automatically vaporize all of these brands. As Pier 1 bankruptcy counsel Josh Sussberg of Kirkland & Ellis told me: “Chapter 11 provides at least a platform to see if there’s a reason for a company to exist.” And as we’re learning, that can depend not just on the company and its fundamentals, but on the most treacherous and unpredictable economies in generations. Expect the Chapter 11 filings to keep piling up — but remember they’re not the end of the story. For better or worse, they’re just the start.

因此，破产浪潮不会自动蒸发所有这些品牌。 正如Kirkland＆Ellis的Pier 1破产顾问Josh Sussberg告诉我的那样：“第11章至少提供了一个平台，以查看是否存在一家公司成立的理由。” 而且，正如我们所了解的那样，这不仅取决于公司及其基本面，还取决于几代人中最危险，最不可预测的经济。 期望第11章的申请会不断增加，但是请记住，这还不是故事的结局。 不管好坏，它们只是开始。

Verdict: Hold

判决：保留

— Rob Walker

— 罗伯·沃克

本周最大数目：200亿美元 (The Big Number of the Week: $20 billion)

The estimated valuation for Palantir, the super-secretive data mining firm going public 16 years after its launch.

这家超级秘密数据挖掘公司Palantir成立后16年上市，其估算估值为。

Palantir, the data mining company famous for its CIA terrorist-hunting work (as well as its largest investor, the idiosyncratic libertarian and early Facebook backer Peter Thiel) will go public in the first big-ticket IPO since Uber’s listing last year. The announcement comes amid a summer surge of listings after a springtime drought: The insurance startup Lemonade went public on July 2nd, and online car dealership Vroom last month.

数据挖掘公司Palantir，以其CIA恐怖分子的搜寻工作而闻名(同时也是其最大的投资者，特质的自由主义者和Facebook的早期支持者Peter Thiel)， 将是自去年Uber上市以来的首次大型IPO。 该声明发布之际 ，是Spring干旱之后的夏季上市热潮：保险初创公司Lemonade于7月2日上市，而在线汽车经销商Vroom于上月上市。

There’s no telling how the market will receive Palantir given this year’s stock insanity, but in normal times, the company’s debut price would need to be extremely humble. It was last valued at $20 billion, but assessments of the true number vary wildly. In 2018, Morgan Stanley’s mutual funds group gave it a valuation of $4.4 billion, and private sales of its shares have put the number at $10 billion to $12 billion. Much like Uber and Lyft, Palantir has never made money, and the company merits serious caution. Uber’s price plunged and Lyft’s soared after going public, so while market mania could carry Palantir with it, I’d rather keep my eye on Airbnb’s on-again-off-again IPO plans.

考虑到今年的股票狂躁，目前尚无定论市场将如何接受Palantir，但在正常情况下，该公司的首次公开募股价格必须非常谦虚。 它的最后估值为200亿美元，但对真实数字的评估却大相径庭。 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的共同基金集团在2018年对其估值为44亿美元，私下出售其股票后的估值为100亿至120亿美元 。 就像Uber和Lyft一样，Palantir从来没有赚钱，该公司值得认真对待。 Uber上市后价格暴跌，Lyft飙升，因此尽管市场狂热可能会带动Palantir，但我宁愿关注Airbnb一次又一次的IPO计划。

Verdict: Sell

判决：卖出

— Steve LeVine

—史蒂夫·莱文(Steve LeVine)

闪电轮 (Lightning Round)

• Walmart (Finally) Unveils Its Amazon Prime Competitor. The mega-retailer is planning to launch a membership program called Walmart+ this July, according to Recode. The subscription service reportedly includes “same-day delivery of groceries and general merchandise, discounts on fuel at Walmart gas stations, and early access to product deals” and will cost $98 a year — $21 cheaper than Amazon Prime. Walmart likely left money on the table by launching Walmart+ four months after Covid shutdowns began, but better late than never. According to eMarketer, U.S. consumers are expected to spend 18% more on e-commerce in 2020. Buy.

  沃尔玛(最终)推出了其Amazon Prime竞争对手。 据Recode称，这家大型零售商计划在今年7月启动一个名为Walmart +的会员计划。 据报道，该订阅服务包括“杂货和日用商品的当天交付，沃尔玛加油站的燃料折扣以及及早获得产品交易”，每年的费用为98美元，比Amazon Prime便宜21美元。 沃尔玛可能会在Covid停产开始四个月后推出Walmart +来赚钱，但总比没有好。 根据eMarketer的数据，到2020年，美国消费者在电子商务上的支出预计将增加18％ 。购买。

• TikTok May Face a U.S. Ban. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Monday that the U.S. government is considering banning TikTok and other Chinese social media apps due to security concerns. If the government follows through with a ban, the U.S. would be the second country that TikTok finds itself shut out of, following India’s move last week to ban a number of Chinese apps in the wake of renewed border tensions. A TikTok spokesperson responded to Pompeo’s remarks with a reminder that many of its employees — including its new CEO, former Disney executive Kevin Mayer — are American. This Monday, TikTok further tried to distance itself from China by announcing it was joining other tech firms in exiting the Hong Kong market due to concerns over China’s new national security laws. Hold.

  TikTok可能面临美国禁令。 国务卿迈克·庞培(Mike Pompeo)周一对福克斯新闻(Fox News)表示，出于安全考虑，美国政府正在考虑禁止TikTok和其他中国社交媒体应用。 如果政府严格执行禁令， 印度将是第二个被TikTok拒之门外的国家。 印度上周采取行动 ，禁止新的边界紧张局势之后，中国禁止了许多中国应用程序。 TikTok发言人在回应庞培的讲话时提醒人们，其许多员工(包括新任首席执行官，迪士尼前执行官凯文·梅耶尔)都是美国人。 本周一，由于对中国新的国家安全法的担忧，TikTok宣布与其他科技公司退出香港市场 ，进一步试图与中国保持距离。 保持。

• Scripps Is Selling Stitcher to Sirius XM. E. W. Scripps is reportedly nearing a deal to sell the podcast service Stitcher to satellite and online radio broadcaster Sirius XM for around $300 million. Considering Scripps bought Stitcher for just $4.5 million in 2016, it would be quite the exit if this deal goes through. In shopping Stitcher around last month, Scripps shrewdly took advantage of the podcast bubble fueled by buying sprees from companies like iHeartMedia, Entercom Communications, and especially Spotify, which spent over $500 million acquiring Gimlet Media, The Ringer, and Anchor as well as striking exclusivity deals with Joe Rogan and Kim Kardashian. Buy.

  Scripps将订书机卖给Sirius XM。 据报道， EW Scripps即将达成一项交易，以约3亿美元的价格将播客服务Stitcher出售给卫星和在线无线电广播公司Sirius XM。 考虑到斯克里普斯在2016年以450万美元的价格收购了Stitcher，如果这笔交易通过的话，那将是一个相当大的退出。 在上个月购物Stitcher的过程中 ，Scripps巧妙地利用了播客泡沫，该泡沫是从iHeartMedia ， Entercom Communications尤其是Spotify等公司购买鱼雷而推动的，后者斥资5亿多美元收购了Gimlet Media，Ringer和Anchor，并取得了显着的排他性与Joe Rogan和Kim Kardashian交易。 购买。

• Gap Bets Its Future on Kanye — and Masks. The Gap — once America’s most iconic retailer — is on life support. And as a last-ditch effort, it’s gone from selling face masks to consumers to selling face masks directly to businesses, as well. In addition to B2B mask-peddling, Gap is also signing a 10-year licensing deal with Kanye West’s Yeezy. Although West was a lucrative partner for Adidas, he’s also an unpredictable brand ambassador — in the past week alone, he announced his candidancy for president in 2020 and made anti-vaccine and anti-abortion statements. For a retailer on the precipice of shuttering for good, Gap is wagering its comeback on a risky cultural icon. Sell.

  Gap将未来寄托在Kanye和Masks上。 曾经是美国最具标志性的零售商的Gap 一直在维持生命 。 作为最后的努力，它已经从向用户销售口罩到 直接向企业销售口罩 。 除了B2B面具兜售之外，Gap还与Kanye West的Yeezy签署了为期10年的许可协议 。 尽管韦斯特是阿迪达斯的有利可图的合作伙伴，但他还是一位无法预测的品牌大使-仅在过去一周， 他就宣布了2020年担任总统候选人的资格，并发表了反疫苗和反堕胎的声明 。 对于一家濒临倒闭的零售商来说，Gap将其卷土重来的风险文化标志。 卖。

标记的新注视 (Marker’s New Fixation)

Never one to wax nostalgic for uncomfortable bleachers, $12 hot dogs, or heat stroke, I’ve managed to avoid live sports events for over a decade. But now that sports fandom is pulling from the esports playbook by going virtual, I’m giving it another look. Yamaha is testing an app that allows Japanese soccer and baseball fans watching from home to trigger audio of cheers from the speaker systems of sports stadiums. It’s already been tested across 29 games, with 300,000 users sending 18 million virtual cheers. Several Major League Baseball teams, meanwhile, have turned to a low-tech solution to the same problem: They’re selling fans the opportunity to have their photos placed onto cardboard cutouts parked in empty stadium seats.

从来没有人对怀旧的漂白剂，12美元的热狗或中暑感到怀旧之情，十多年来，我设法避免了现场体育赛事。 但是现在，体育迷正在通过虚拟化从电子竞技游戏中脱颖而出 ，我给了它另一种外观。 雅马哈正在测试一个应用程序 ， 该应用程序允许日本足球和棒球迷在家中观看，以触发体育馆扬声器系统发出的欢呼声。 它已经在29款游戏中进行了测试，有30万用户发送了1800万虚拟欢呼声。 同时，几支美国职棒大联盟球队已经对同一问题转向了一种低技术含量的解决方案：他们为球迷们提供了将照片放在空的体育场座位上的纸板切口上的机会。

— Jean-Luc Bouchard

—让·卢克·布查德

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翻译自: https://marker.medium.com/debunking-the-bankruptcy-myth-b1fc20edb3ba