2020年中国不支持苹果_苹果2020年9月事件提示

2020年中国不支持苹果

by Jean-Louis Gassée

通过让·路易斯·加塞(Jean-LouisGassée)

去年6月的虚拟开发者会议是一个成功的开始，而现在，9月15日是秋季的第一个公告。 我们看到了Series 6 Apple Watch和新款iPad，并暗示了一些更有趣的事情。 (Last June’s virtual Developers’ Conference was a successful start, now followed, on September 15th, by the first of Fall announcements. We saw the Series 6 Apple Watch and new iPads — with hints of more interesting things to come.)

Titled Time Flies, this September 2020 Apple Event offered the expected fare. In a short, polished, 64 minutes, the company unveiled the new Apple Watch Series 6 and two new iPads (“classic” and Air). Because there were no new iPhones and no Apple Silicon Macs, it felt a little disappointing at first. But closer inspection revealed interesting hints of things to come. Here, I’m not referring to “whimsical”, carefully choreographed in fact, glimpses of slightly disheveled Sr VP Craig Federighi briefly getting in the way of tracking shots. What these are supposed to hint at when contrasting with a highly polished, almost sterile presentation, I won’t attempt to guess.

这项名为2020年9月的Apple Event活动以时光飞逝，提供了预期的票价。 在短短的，经过抛光的64分钟内，该公司推出了新的Apple Watch Series 6和两台新的iPad(“经典”和Air)。 因为没有新的iPhone，也没有苹果的Apple Mac，所以刚开始感到有些失望。 但是仔细检查发现有趣的提示。 在这里，我并不是指实际上经过精心编排的“异想天开”，只是略显混乱的高级副总裁Craig Federighi短暂地妨碍了镜头的拍摄。 当与高度抛光，几乎无菌的演示形成对比时，这些应该暗示什么，我不会尝试猜测。

But two other hints are worth interpreting.

但是还有另外两个提示值得解释。

The first one is quite obvious, it is about Axx processors, about Apple Silicon. When presenting the newer 8th Generation iPad, Product Manager Ted Merendino points to the performance advantage afforded by its A12 processor: 2X vs the top-selling Windows laptop — and also 6X when compared to the hottest-selling Chromebook, and 3X for the best-selling Android tablet. This with a now two-year old A12 chip. Then comes the never-seen-before A14 chip powering the new iPad Air. At approximately 50 mins into the event, VP of Platform Architecture Tim Millet introduces the A14 chip in great detail as an industry-first 5 nanometer CPU. Containing 11.8 billion transistors the A14 offers a 2X graphics performance advantage versus the best-selling laptop in the same price range, an HP machine briefly displayed, 4X heavier and 3X thicker than the iPad Air. So, yes, this is the chip, or a close relative, that will power the coming iPhone 12. And it also points at the advantage Apple Silicon Macs using a similar CPU will have against today’s Windows laptops. Personally, I wouldn’t mind a reborn MacBook coupled with an Apple monitor replacing the 27” LG screen that “inexplicably” went out of stock more than a month ago. This is only my own preference for more agile devices. Still powered by the kind of Apple Silicon Tim Millet introduced, others will surely yearn for a more muscular MacBook Pro. The A14 presentation amounts to throwing down the gauntlet to three industries in one go: smartphones, tablets and PCs industries.

第一个很明显，关于Axx处理器，关于Apple Silicon。 在展示新款第8代iPad时，产品经理Ted Merendino指出了其A12处理器所提供的性能优势：2倍于最畅销的Windows笔记本电脑-与6倍于最畅销的Chromebook相比，3倍于最佳笔记本电脑-销售Android平板电脑。 这使用了已经使用了两年的A12芯片。 然后是为新的iPad Air提供动力的前所未有的A14芯片。 在活动开始约50分钟后，平台架构副总裁Tim Millet详细介绍了A14芯片，这是业界首款5纳米CPU。 与相同价格范围内最畅销的笔记本电脑相比，A14包含118亿个晶体管，在性能上比最畅销的笔记本电脑高出2倍，比起iPad Air，它可以短暂显示一台HP机，重4倍，厚3倍。 因此，是的，这是将为即将面世的iPhone 12提供动力的芯片或近亲产品。它还指出了使用类似CPU的Apple Silicon Macs相对于当今Windows笔记本电脑所具有的优势。 就个人而言，我不介意一台重生的MacBook加上一台Apple显示器取代了一个多月前“莫名其妙”缺货的27英寸LG屏幕。 对于更敏捷的设备，这只是我自己的偏爱。 仍然由推出的Apple Silicon Tim Millet提供支持，其他人肯定会渴望拥有更强劲的MacBook Pro。 A14演示文稿一口气将拳头扔给了三个行业：智能手机，平板电脑和PC行业。

That wasn’t subtle.

那并不微妙。

More so is the hint barely visible in a Series 6 summary chart disclosing the presence of a U1 processor aboard an Apple Watch:

更是如此的是在Series 6汇总表中几乎看不到的提示，其中揭示了Apple Watch上是否存在U1处理器：

This isn’t the U1 processor’s first appearance. It was briefly featured and soberly explained in last year’s iPhone 11 introduction. At the time, its presence led many to speculate that Apple would soon introduce something nicknamed Air Tags, small devices to be affixed to our personal objects (wallet, purse, hat, key fob…). If misplaced, these objects would be located thanks to Ultra-Wideband (UWB) connectivity supported by Apple’s U1 processor in iPhone 11 and, now, in Series 6 Apple Watches. Last year’s “Air Tags” rumors didn’t endear Apple to the makers of Tile devices that use an app and Bluetooth technology to track one’s possessions. Tile execs complained they were about to be Sherlocked. The term refers the an old, unavoidable, generic phenomenon whereby the platform incorporates a function created by a third-party developer. Here, Air Tags would “unfairly” compete with Tile, regardless of the power and utility of each proposition.

这不是U1处理器的首次亮相。 去年的iPhone 11简介中对此功能进行了简要介绍，并进行了清醒的解释。 当时，它的存在使许多人猜测，苹果公司很快会推出一种绰号为“航空标签”的东西，将小型设备粘贴到我们的个人物品上(钱包，钱包，帽子，钥匙扣……)。 如果放错了位置，这些对象将可以定位，这要归功于iPhone 11和现在的Series 6 Apple Watch中的Apple U1处理器支持的超宽带(UWB)连接。 去年的“航空标签”谣言并没有让苹果公司吸引使用应用程序和蓝牙技术跟踪个人财产的Tile设备制造商。 瓷砖高管抱怨他们即将被夏洛克袭击。 该术语指的是一种古老的，不可避免的，普遍的现象，该平台结合了第三方开发人员创建的功能。 在这里，无论每个提议的力量和效用如何，Air Tag都会“不公平地”与Tile竞争。

Setting this aside, let’s imagine how an Air Tag might reunite me with my wallet. In this entirely speculative oversimplified and scenario, the Air Tag is a very small device that uses a tiny hearing aid battery and does only one thing. Every minute, it sends a short, unique cryptographic pulse using UWB modulation. The message is a very weak signal sent across a broad range of frequencies in order to achieve the apparent paradox of being weaker than ambient radioelectric noise and yet being picked by a very wideband receiver, hence the UWB designation. This might become the first consumer implementation of what has so far been an esoteric technology. So, we have a small beacon, able to conserve energy and to transmit a short, unique cryptogram that is picked by a UWB-capable device, an iPhone or an Apple Watch. These, in turn, with more robust retransmission capabilities, connect to an iCloud server that decodes the cryptogram and alerts me, the particular Air Tag owner: Your wallet was located a minute ago at this location on Maps. Lost or stolen, I now know where my wallet is.

抛开这些，让我们想象一下航空标签如何使我的钱包与我团聚。 在这种完全投机的过度简化场景中，Air Tag是一款非常小的设备，它使用了一个很小的助听器电池，只做一件事。 每分钟，它使用UWB调制发送一个短而独特的加密脉冲。 该消息是在很宽的频率范围内发送的非常弱的信号，以实现明显的悖论，即它比周围的无线电噪声要弱，但是却被非常宽带的接收器接收，因此被称为UWB 。 这可能成为迄今为止深奥技术的第一个消费者实现。 因此，我们有一个小型信标，能够节省能源并传输由具有UWB功能的设备，iPhone或Apple Watch选择的短而独特的密码。 这些具有强大的重传功能，然后连接到iCloud服务器，该服务器解码密码并向我(特定的航空标签所有者)发出警报：您的钱包在一分钟前位于地图上的此位置。 丢失或被盗，我现在知道我的钱包在哪里。

Three observations.

三个观察。

First, the Air Tag micro-burst is anonymously picked up by any U1-equipped iPhone or Watch and relayed without user intervention.

首先，任何配备U1的iPhone或Watch都会匿名拾取Air Tag微爆，并在无需用户干预的情况下进行中继。

Second, more than one U1-enabled device might pick up a micro-burst message from the my wallet’s Air Tag thus providing better triangulation.

其次，不止一个启用了U1的设备可能会从我钱包的Air Tag接收微爆消息，从而提供更好的三角测量。

Third, Apple will have an interesting privacy challenge and not keep track of personalized Air Tags location information.

第三，苹果将面临一个有趣的隐私挑战，并且无法跟踪个性化的航空标签位置信息。

Because iPhones and Watches act as relays for the weak Air Tags bursts, this works on arbitrarily long distances and only requires the simple setup of my wallet’s Air Tag. The rest is a transparent network property.

由于iPhone和手表是薄弱的Air Tag爆炸的中继器，因此它适用于任意长距离，并且只需要简单设置钱包的Air Tag。 其余的是透明的网络属性。

That being accepted, the always-annoying small matters of implementation might get in the way. For example, the size of the Air Tag might be an issue for objects such as a driver’s license or a key fob. Those who like very slim wallets might object to affixing an Air Tag to theirs. A look at the Amazon section dedicated to hearing aids batteries might give one an idea of the field of possibilities. One imagines my Air Tag sending a special “Low Battery” message warning me the time has come to get a fresh battery.

被接受后，实施过程中总是令人讨厌的小问题可能会受到阻碍。 例如，对于诸如驾驶执照或密钥卡之类的物体，航空标签的大小可能是一个问题。 那些喜欢超薄钱包的人可能会反对在他们的身上贴上航空标签。 查看专门用于助听器电池的亚马逊部分，可能会带您了解各种可能性。 有人想象我的航空标签会发送一条特殊的“电量不足”消息，警告我现在该换新电池了。

If Air Tags approximately work as described, they will be a nice and important addition to the Apple ecosystem. In very broad strokes, let’s assume 100M iPhone 11s in existence, plus another 100M iPhone 12 and watches next fiscal year; this yields more than 200M U1-equipped devices by the end of 2021. How many of these will result in how many Air Tags, at how many dollars per device is a question for analysts such as Above Avalon’s Neil Cybart, or Horace Dediu. But the end number will not be small. For an entirely amateurish example, imagines 20% of 200M devices using 2 Air Tags sold for $25 each. This would be 40M devices, each generating $50 yielding $2B in revenue. That is the order of magnitude of the Air Tags revenue opportunity. Perhaps more importantly, Air Tags would make iPhones and Apple Watches more valuable, safer and more pleasant, more desirable.

如果Air Tag能够按说明大致工作，那么它们将是Apple生态系统的重要补充。 粗略地讲，假设存在1亿部iPhone 11s，再加上1亿部iPhone 12并在下一个财政年度观看； 到2021年底，这将产生超过2亿个配备U1的设备。其中有多少个将导致有多少个航空标签，每台设备多少美元是诸如Avalon之上的Neil Cybart或Horace Dediu之类的分析师的问题。 但是结束数不会很小。 举一个完全业余的例子，假设2亿个设备中有20％使用2个航空标签，每个售价25美元。 这将是4000万个设备，每个设备产生$ 50的收益为$ 2B。 这就是“航空标签”收入机会的数量级。 也许更重要的是，Air Tags可以使iPhone和Apple Watch变得更有价值，更安全，更令人愉悦，更受欢迎。

Back on firmer ground, we don’t know when new iPhones will be announced. Perhaps by mid-October, Air Tags then coming along for the ride. The same event might also allow us to see how Apple Silicon Macs realize the ambition displayed in Tim Millet’s presentation.

回到更坚实的基础上，我们不知道何时会发布新的iPhone。 也许到了10月中旬，Air Tags就会陆续出发。 同一事件也可能使我们看到Apple Silicon Macs如何实现Tim Millet演示文稿中显示的雄心壮志。

— JLG@mondaynote.com

— JLG@mondaynote.com

翻译自: https://mondaynote.com/apple-september-2020-event-hint-hint-a3754ffb7a12

2020年中国不支持苹果