By Thomas Pfeiffer and Thomas Seal
托马斯·菲佛和托马斯·海尔
Every few years, someone comes along promising to disrupt the satellite industry. They burn through billions in cash before ambition crashes back down to Earth. Since the late 1990s, Globalstar, Iridium, Leosat, Skybridge, Teledesic, and other companies have attempted to rewrite space communications, only to collapse or shrink into a niche that poses little threat to the incumbents.
每隔几年，就会有人承诺破坏卫星产业。 他们将数十亿美元的现金消耗掉，然后野心崩溃了。 自1990年代后期以来，Globalstar，Iridium，Leosat，Skybridge，Teledesic和其他公司都试图重写太空通信，但只是崩溃或缩小为利基市场，而这对现任公司几乎没有威胁。
Now comes Elon Musk. After overturning the economics of the car and the rocket-launch industries, the billionaire is taking a hatchet to another fraying business model — space communications — by filling the skies with thousands of satellites that beam internet to isolated populations. His Space Exploration Technologies Corp. sent up the first Starlink satellites in May 2019, and as of early this month it had deployed almost 700, single-handedly increasing the number of active satellites in orbit by almost a third.
现在是埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)。 在颠覆汽车和火箭发射行业的经济状况之后，这位亿万富翁通过向空中撒满了数千颗卫星，将互联网传送给孤立的人群，从而掀起了另一种脆弱的商业模式-太空通信。 他的太空探索技术公司于2019年5月发射了第一颗Starlink卫星，截至本月初，它已部署了近700颗，一手将在轨活动卫星的数量增加了近三分之一。
Broadband from space already exists, but it relies on geostationary satellites that orbit more than 22,200 miles from Earth, making the connections too slow to compete effectively with new applications on terrestrial networks. By contrast, Musk’s are at an altitude of 340 miles, putting his system at a potential speed advantage over the fastest undersea fiber networks.
来自太空的宽带已经存在，但是它依赖于离地球22,200英里远的对地静止卫星，这使得连接速度太慢，无法与地面网络的新应用有效竞争。 相比之下，马斯克(Musk)身高340英里，这使其系统具有比最快的海底光纤网络更高的潜在速度优势。
But a long list of past failures underscores the challenge. Low-Earth orbit, or LEO, satellites need to zip around the world at about 5 miles per second to maintain a constant altitude. To ensure a reliable internet service, a ground receiver must hop constantly from one satellite signal to another without dropping the two-way connection. It’s like playing soccer with 12 balls on the pitch. And no one has found a way to make such a sophisticated piece of new technology and turn a profit in the mass consumer market.
但是，过去失败的一长串清单凸显了这一挑战。 低地球轨道(LEO)卫星需要以每秒约5英里的速度绕着世界飞行，以保持恒定的高度。 为了确保可靠的互联网服务，地面接收器必须不断地从一个卫星信号跳到另一个卫星信号，而不会断开双向连接。 这就像在球场上踢12球时踢足球。 还没有人找到一种方法来制造如此复杂的新技术，并在大众消费市场上获利。
“There still is real uncertainty with regard to the future of these systems,” says Carissa Christensen, chief executive officer of analytics company Bryce Space & Technology. SpaceX has “an extraordinary track record of delivering technology breakthroughs,” she says, but less expertise in consumer retail markets and telecommunications. SpaceX didn’t respond to emails seeking comment.
分析公司Bryce Space＆Technology首席执行官Carissa Christensen说：“关于这些系统的未来仍然存在真正的不确定性。” 她说，SpaceX在“提供技术突破方面拥有非凡的业绩”，但在消费者零售市场和电信领域的专业知识却很少。 SpaceX没有回复寻求评论的电子邮件。
In classic Musk style, SpaceX is drip-feeding news on the project. During the 12th Starlink launch, on Sept. 3, SpaceX engineer Kate Tice announced that the network was already achieving download speeds greater than 100 megabits per second — enough for a user to stream multiple high-definition movies simultaneously.
在经典的Musk风格中，SpaceX是该项目的点滴新闻。 在9月3日第12次Starlink发射期间，SpaceX工程师Kate Tice宣布该网络已经实现了每秒100兆位以上的下载速度-足以让用户同时流式传输多个高清电影。
Starlink threatens the entire industry because of its potential scale. SpaceX has applied to ring the planet with more than 40,000 Starlinks, about 13 times the number of active satellites in orbit. It’s targeting not only the rural broadband users of ViaSat Inc., Hughes Satellite Systems Corp., and other companies but also airline Wi-Fi providers, shipping fleets, and potential military clients — the established satellite industry’s bread and butter. Investor expectations are lofty: In July, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that Starlink makes up $40 billion of SpaceX’s total $50 billion value.
Starlink的潜在规模威胁着整个行业。 SpaceX已申请使用40,000多个Starlink环行行星，这大约是轨道上活动卫星数量的13倍。 它不仅针对ViaSat公司，休斯卫星系统公司和其他公司的农村宽带用户，而且还针对航空公司的Wi-Fi提供商，运输船队和潜在的军事客户-既定的卫星行业的食品和黄油。 投资者的期望很高：7月，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师估计，Starlink在SpaceX 500亿美元的总价值中占400亿美元。
Musk is challenging an industry that already has its back to the wall. Satellite-TV providers AT&T Inc.’s DirecTV and Luxembourg-based SES SA are under threat from terrestrial fiber-based networks powerful enough to distribute big events like soccer games reliably to millions of viewers at once. The cruise and aviation sectors are in crisis because of Covid-19, a setback for communications companies such as Inmarsat Global Ltd. and Intelsat SA that serve them.
马斯克正在挑战一个已经扎根的行业。 卫星电视提供商AT＆T Inc.的DirecTV和总部位于卢森堡的SES SA受到地面光纤网络的威胁，该网络功能强大，足以一次可靠地向数百万观众分发足球比赛等大型赛事。 由于Covid-19，邮轮和航空业处于危机之中，这对服务于Inmarsat Global Ltd.和Intelsat SA等通信公司的挫折。
Space communications have long been losing ground to land-based rivals. Forty years ago satellites connected long-distance voice calls. Fifteen years ago they were Africa’s main bridge to the World Wide Web. No longer. One of the industry’s most lucrative business opportunities today is selling spectrum they can no longer use to terrestrial wireless carriers. The latest casualty is OneWeb, a U.K. company that raised $3.4 billion from investors including Airbus SE and SoftBank Group Corp. on the promise of “internet access everywhere, for everyone” before filing for insolvency in March.
长期以来，太空通信一直在落后于陆基竞争对手。 四十年前，卫星连接了长途语音通话。 十五年前，它们是非洲通往万维网的主要桥梁。 不再。 当今行业最有利可图的商机之一是向地面无线运营商出售他们不再使用的频谱。 最新的受害者是英国的OneWeb公司，该公司从空中客车公司(Airbus SE)和软银集团公司(SoftBank Group Corp.)在内的投资者那里筹集了34亿美元，其承诺是“人人都能上网”，然后在3月申请破产。
The project’s original champion, entrepreneur Greg Wyler, later declared the satellite industry’s role in large-scale consumer broadband “dead on arrival.” The problem, he says, is that it’s impossible for the space industry to keep pace with terrestrial network technology.
该项目的最初冠军企业家格雷格·威勒(Greg Wyler)随后宣布，卫星行业在大规模消费宽带中的作用“一触即发”。 他说，问题在于，航天工业不可能跟上地面网络技术的步伐。
SpaceX so far has made its money by lifting others’ satellites into orbit. But Musk wants to colonize Mars, and that will cost more than he can earn in the rocket industry. He isn’t alone in believing that space broadband’s time has come. The cost of developing such projects has fallen in part because of improved computing power, smaller satellites, and more standardized parts and processes. SpaceX has an edge over rivals that rely on third parties to launch their payloads.
迄今为止，SpaceX通过将他人的卫星送入轨道来赚钱。 但是马斯克想要殖民火星，这将花费他在火箭工业中所能赚到的更多钱。 他并不是唯一一个相信太空宽带时代已经来临的人。 开发此类项目的成本有所下降，部分原因是由于计算能力提高，卫星更小，零件和过程更加标准化。 SpaceX在依赖第三方来发射其有效载荷的竞争对手方面具有优势。
The world’s richest man, Jeff Bezos, is bankrolling a rival constellation project named Project Kuiper that’s yet to send up a test satellite. Telesat, a Canadian satellite company that’s been around for a half-century, is pivoting from traditional geostationary satellites into LEO to capture business with governments, airlines, and shipping companies.
世界首富杰夫·贝佐斯( Jeff Bezos )正在资助一个名为Project Kuiper的竞争对手星座项目，该项目尚未发射测试卫星。 加拿大卫星公司Telesat成立已有半个世纪，它正从传统的对地静止卫星转向LEO，以获取与政府，航空公司和船运公司的业务。
Unlike SpaceX, Telesat says it will avoid the consumer market as long as there’s no low-cost, high-performance ground terminal. “We believe that in the fullness of time it will be available, but we don’t believe it’s available in the near term,” says Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg. “It’s a tough market.”
Telesat表示，与SpaceX不同，只要没有低成本，高性能的地面终端，它将避免进入消费市场。 Telesat首席执行官Dan Goldberg说：“我们相信它会在所有时间里可用，但我们不相信它会在短期内可用。” “这是一个艰难的市场。”
Other incumbents are steering clear of LEO entirely. The satellites offer far fewer megabits per dollar than geostationary satellites, making it harder for those systems to pay for themselves, says Inmarsat Chief Technical Officer Peter Hadinger. A geostationary satellite lasts for more than a decade, is constantly in use, and can be targeted at the busiest areas of the world. A SpaceX satellite might last only a third of that life span, Hadinger says.
其他任职者完全避开了LEO。 Inmarsat首席技术官Peter Hadinger表示，这些卫星每美元的百万比特比特数比对地静止卫星要少得多，这使这些系统更难为自己付费。 对地静止卫星持续了十多年，一直在使用，并且可以瞄准世界上最繁忙的地区。 哈丁格说，SpaceX卫星的寿命可能只有该寿命的三分之一。
Musk has promised a slender Starlink receiver that’s plugged in, breaking with the clunky dishes of the past that need a specialist to install them. Industry analyst Chris Quilty estimates the cost of the user terminal and antenna at closer to $2,000 than $1,000. “It’s really hard to compete with a bent piece of sheet metal that costs 50 bucks,” he says. “I don’t see a path for them magically breaking cost barriers that no one else has achieved.”
马斯克承诺会插入一个细长的Starlink接收器，以打破过去笨拙的碟子，而这需要专家来安装。 行业分析师Chris Quilty估计用户终端和天线的成本接近$ 2,000，而不是$ 1,000。 他说：“要与价格为50美元的弯曲钣金竞争，真的很困难。” “我认为他们没有一条神奇的道路可以突破其他任何人都无法实现的成本壁垒。”
Quilty says he expects Musk to lobby for government work to squeeze every revenue line from Starlink. The U.S. military is one of the largest customers for satellite communications and wants to make use of the new LEO constellations. That’s partly because they offer military users a tactical advantage. Big geostationary satellites now used for battlefield communications are potential sitting ducks: A hostile actor could bring down the entire network by destroying one with a missile. Taking out several satellites in Starlink’s huge constellation, by contrast, wouldn’t compromise the system.
Quilty说，他希望马斯克游说政府工作，以压缩Starlink的每个收入线。 美国军方是卫星通信的最大客户之一，并希望利用新的LEO星座。 部分原因是他们为军事用户提供了战术优势。 现在用于战场通信的大型对地静止卫星可能是潜伏的鸭子：敌对的演员可以用导弹摧毁一个网络，从而摧毁整个网络。 相比之下，在Starlink巨大的星座中取出几颗卫星不会损害系统。
The plan one day is to connect the satellites directly with laser beams so data can reach across polar, oceanic, and inhospitable regions. Without this it will be hard for Starlink to serve the lucrative market for in-flight internet on long-haul planes and shipping communications. It also means SpaceX would need approval for a global array of ground stations to send data around the world. But China, Russia, and other vast territories may well freeze Musk out to antagonize the U.S. and protect their national phone companies.
有计划的一天是将卫星直接与激光束连接，以便数据可以到达极地，海洋和荒凉的地区。 没有这一点，Starlink将很难在利润丰厚的飞机和运输通讯市场上服务于机上互联网。 这也意味着，SpaceX将需要获得全球地面站阵列的批准才能在全球范围内发送数据。 但是中国，俄罗斯和其他广阔的领土可能会冻结麝香以对抗美国并保护其国家电话公司。
Asked which competitor he would bet on if pushed, Inmarsat CEO Rupert Pearce says, “The track record would say Starlink, wouldn’t it? You’ve got the muscle of Musk, you’ve got the Silicon Valley mentality, and what they did with SpaceX is incredibly impressive.”
当被问及他将押哪个竞争对手时，Inmarsat首席执行官鲁伯特·皮尔斯(Rupert Pearce)说：“往绩记录上会说是Starlink，不是吗？ 您拥有Musk的肌肉，拥有硅谷的思维方式，他们对SpaceX所做的一切令人印象深刻。”
But if Starlink fails, it won’t just burn SpaceX’s own investors. “If Starlink is a deep disappointment,” says industry consultant Tim Farrar, who’s advised investors on other satellite projects, “you could see another downturn in the space investment cycle.”
但是，如果Starlink失败，那将不仅烧毁SpaceX自己的投资者。 在其他卫星项目的投资顾问中，行业顾问蒂姆·法拉尔(Tim Farrar)说：“如果Starlink令我深感失望，那么您可能会看到太空投资周期的另一轮下滑。”
© 2020 Bloomberg L.P.
©2020 Bloomberg LP
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