在线购物飞涨。 这就是它不会持续的原因

(Want to receive Buy/Sell/Hold in your inbox? Sign up here.)

(是否希望在收件箱中收到购买/出售/持有？在 这里 注册 。)

Welcome to Buy/Sell/Hold, Marker’s weekly newsletter that’s 100% business intelligence and 0% investment advice. Each week, our writers Steve LeVine and Rob Walker make sense of the most important developments in business right now — and give them a Buy for positive trends or clever moves, a Sell for mistakes or missed opportunities, or a Hold if they’re noteworthy but too early to call.

欢迎阅读Marker的每周新闻“ 买/卖/持有” ，其中包含100％的商业情报和0％的投资建议。 每个星期，我们的作家史蒂夫·莱文和罗布·沃克现在的企业最重要的发展是有意义的-并给他们购买了积极的趋势或聪明的举动，失误卖出或错失机会，或保留 ，如果他们是值得关注但还为时过早。

💻为什么电子商务繁荣可能已经结束💻 (💻 Why the E-Commerce Boom May Already Be Over 💻)

The Buy/Sell/Hold Analysis

买/卖/持有分析

In the months since the pandemic slammed the brakes on all of our normal shopping routines, e-commerce has roughly doubled from just over 15% of U.S. retail sales to about 33%, according to McKinsey. In a flashy new analysis, the white-shoe consultant firm trumpets this as e-commerce growth fast-forwarding one decade in just three months.

麦肯锡的数据显示，自从大流行打击了我们所有正常的购物习惯以来的几个月，电子商务已从美国零售额的15％左右增加了近一倍，达到33％。 在一个华丽的新分析中，这家白鞋顾问公司大肆宣传这一点，因为电子商务的增长在短短三个月内就向前迈进了十年。

In its June 2020 Digital Economy Index, Adobe offers further granularity to this news. The software company says that the e-commerce sales surge — an uptick thus far totaling about $77 billion — amounts to half of what is usually spent online in the entire end-of-year holiday season, the biggest selling time of the year.

在其2020年6月的数字经济指数中 ，Adobe为此新闻提供了进一步的详细说明。 这家软件公司表示，电子商务的销售激增(迄今为止总计达到770亿美元)，是整个年终假期旺季(一年中最大的销售时间)通常在网上花费的一半。

Exciting stuff. But consider the context: Since Covid-19, apart from grocery stores and Home Depot, much of the physical retail world has either been entirely closed in lockdown or shunned by pandemic-panicked consumers. Yet even with all that advantage — the rough equivalent of tying a basketball player’s legs together and one arm behind their back — e-commerce has managed to capture only a third of total retail sales. There is every reason right now to buy entirely online, yet Americans have largely stuck with tried-and-true brick and mortar.

令人兴奋的东西。 但请考虑以下情况：自Covid-19以来，除了杂货店和Home Depot外，许多实体零售世界要么完全被封锁，要么被大流行恐慌的消费者所避开。 然而，即使拥有所有这些优势(大致相当于将篮球运动员的双腿并拢绑在手臂上)，电子商务也只占零售总额的三分之一。 目前，完全有理由完全在网上购买商品，但美国人在很大程度上一直使用久经考验的实体店。

What gives? While Covid-19 has fast-forwarded trends like surveillance technology, video conferencing, and automation, online shopping seems to already be slowing down. Digital sales boomed from March through May, but in June, sales dropped $7 billion from May. July figures will be out soon, but the trend line at the start of the month was already downward. This includes groceries and apparel, which fell 18% and 15% in June, respectively.

是什么赋予了？ 尽管Covid-19具有诸如监控技术，视频会议和自动化之类的快速发展趋势 ，但在线购物似乎已经在放缓。 从3月到5月，数字销售额蓬勃发展，但是在6月，数字销售额比5月减少了70亿美元。 7月份的数据很快就会公布，但本月初的趋势线已经下降。 其中包括杂货和服装，分别在6月下降18％和15％。

One reason for the dip may be that online goods are no longer as cheap as they once were: “Consumers are now purchasing an online basket of goods for $1.01 that was worth $1.00 in June 2019,” Adobe said. Although online prices were down through the first few months of the pandemic, last month they began to creep back up.

下降的一个原因可能是在线商品不再像以前那样便宜：“消费者现在以1.01美元的价格购买在线购物商品，到2019年6月价值1.00美元，” Adob​​e说。 尽管在线价格在大流行的最初几个月一直在下降，但上个月它们开始回升。

So yes, we’re certainly buying more online. But as of now, we don’t seem to like it all that much.

是的，我们当然会在网上购买更多商品。 但是到目前为止，我们似乎并不太喜欢它。

Verdict: Hold

判决：保留

— Steve LeVine

— 史蒂夫·莱文 ( Steve LeVine)

⚡闪电回合 (⚡Lightning Round ⚡)

⚡ Berkshire Partners Agrees to Buy CrossFit. At a time when gyms face an existential crisis and corporate America faces an overdue racism reckoning, it takes some chutzpah to acquire a fitness brand whose founder and CEO Greg Glassman stepped down in June following racially insensitive comments in the wake of George Floyd’s killing. But Berkshire — which as part of the deal is partnering with CrossFit gym owner, athlete, and now incoming CrossFit CEO Eric Roza — also has a history of prioritizing the long game. Perhaps in this case, the very, very long game. Hold.

⚡Berkshire Partners同意购买CrossFit。 在体育馆面临生存危机，美国公司面临逾期种族主义问题的时候 ，要收购一家健身品牌需要花费很多时间，该健身品牌的创始人兼首席执行官格雷格·格拉斯曼 ( Greg Glassman)在乔治·弗洛伊德(George Floyd)被杀之后因种族歧视发表了评论。 但是，作为交易的一部分，伯克希尔与CrossFit体育馆老板，运动员以及现任CrossFit首席执行官埃里克·罗扎(Eric Roza)合作 ，也有优先考虑长距离比赛的历史。 也许在这种情况下，非常非常长的游戏。 保持。

⚡ Quibi Scores 10 Emmy Nominations. Despite its calamitous launch in the early days of the pandemic, Jeffrey Katzenberg’s supremely mockable bite-size streaming platform has swept the Emmy nominations for outstanding short-form acting and short-form comedy or drama series. Admittedly, these aren’t the most cutthroat or celebrated Emmy categories, but after four months of bad press, this is undoubtedly a much-needed micro-size win for a $1.75 billion-backed startup that flopped out of the gate. Buy.

⚡Quibi获得10艾美奖提名。 尽管在大流行初期就灾难性地推出了，但杰弗里·卡岑伯格(Jeffrey Katzenberg) 极其可笑的一口大小的流媒体平台席卷了艾美奖提名，以表彰其出色的短片和短片喜剧或戏剧系列。 诚然，这些并不是最残酷或最著名的艾美奖类别，但是在经历了四个月的负面报道之后，这无疑是一个急需的微型规模的胜利，对于一家获得了17.5亿美元支持的初创企业来说，它倒闭了。 购买。

⚡ TikTok Plays the Competition Card. The social media behemoth beloved by Gen Z — now valued at $50 billion and under threat of a U.S. ban — took aim on Wednesday at its big tech rivals as they were being grilled in a Congressional antitrust hearing. CEO Kevin Mayer announced the company was launching a “Transparency and Accountability Center” for the public to track its moderation and data practices, urging competitors to follow suit and arguing that TikTok served as a much-need advertiser alternative to Facebook. It’s a clever diversion from Chinese security concerns, but unlikely to sway an administration that’s distanced itself from hard-nosed free-market ideology. Sell.

⚡TikTok玩比赛卡。 Z世代钟爱的社交媒体庞然大物-目前市值500亿美元，并受到美国禁令的威胁-周三瞄准了其大型科技竞争对手，因为他们在国会的反托拉斯听证会上被捕 。 首席执行官凯文·梅耶尔(Kevin Mayer) 宣布，该公司将为公众启动“透明度和问责中心”，以跟踪其审核和数据做法，敦促竞争对手效仿，并认为TikTok是Facebook急需的广告商替代品。 这是对中国安全问题的明智转移，但不太可能动摇与顽固的自由市场意识形态相距甚远的政府。 卖。

⚡ Coca-Cola Enters the Hard Seltzer Market. The beverage giant announced plans this Tuesday to launch hard seltzer under its trendy Topo Chico brand later this year in select Latin American markets and in the U.S. in 2021. With ready-to-drink alcoholic beverages like hard seltzer seeing outstanding 43.1% sales growth in 2019 and an estimated 21.9% jump in 2020, Coca-Cola is wisely leveraging a cult favorite for its own slice of the millennial pie. Buy.

⚡可口可乐进入硬糖苏打水市场。 这家饮料业巨头本周二宣布计划在今年晚些时候在拉丁美洲的部分市场以及2021年在美国推出其流行的 Topo Chico品牌的硬糖饮料。硬糖饮料等即饮酒精饮料的销售额在4月份增长了43.1％。 2019年和2020年预计增长21.9％，可口可乐明智地利用了自己广受欢迎的千禧派派最受欢迎的产品。 购买。

📈人数：1,757％ (📈 The Number: 1,757%)

That’s how much Kodak’s stock rallied following the announcement of its pivot to pharmaceuticals.

这就是柯达宣布将其重点转向制药业之后股价上涨的幅度。

Eastman Kodak Company — everyone’s favorite case study in how iconic industrial giants can quickly lose their innovative edge — has had quite the week. On Tuesday, Kodak went from being a washed-up camera pioneer to a pharmaceutical manufacturer, with the help of a $765 million government loan from the Trump administration under the Defense Production Act. The announcement sent the company’s stock skyrocketing so quickly it tripped 20 circuit breakers in a single day; shares rallied from $2.62 on Monday’s close to a peak of $46.03 early Wednesday afternoon. But this isn’t the first time Kodak has tried to reinvent itself: They shuttered their camera business in 2012, and in 2018 made a messy attempt to launch their own cryptocurrency. Equally messy was all the suspicious trading activity that went on immediately prior to the announcement. So does Kodak have a bright new future in the pharma business? Color us skeptical.

伊士曼柯达公司(Eastman Kodak Company)经历了整整一周，这是每个人都喜欢的标志性工业巨头如何Swift丧失创新优势的案例研究。 周二，在根据《国防生产法》从特朗普政府获得的7.65亿美元政府贷款的帮助下，柯达从成为冲洗相机的先驱者转变为制药商。 公告使公司的股票暴涨，很快就使一天跳闸了20个断路器 ; 股价从周一的2.62美元上涨至接近周三下午的最高点46.03美元。 但这并不是柯达第一次尝试重塑自己：2012年柯达关闭了相机业务，2018年又进行了一次混乱的尝试来推出自己的加密货币 。 宣布之前立即进行的所有可疑交易活动也同样使人感到混乱。 柯达在制药业务方面是否有光明的新未来？ 对我们持怀疑态度。

— Kaushik Viswanath, Senior Books Editor, Marker

— Mark 资深书籍编辑Kaushik Viswanath

📖 Marker’s Longread: How Starbucks — once on top of the world fending off coffee and fast food rivals — got left behind in the pandemic.

er马可(Marker)的Longread：星巴克(曾经是世界一流的咖啡和快餐竞争对手) 在大流行中如何落伍 。

🔎Marker的新注视🔎 (🔎 Marker’s New Fixation 🔎)

This week, Danielle Campoamor explored what’s driving the pandemic-induced nostalgia boom: “Things just seemed easier in the Before Times.” Which is probably why, along with my pink baseball caps and Ellio’s frozen pizzas, I’ve recently dusted off my original AOL Mail account (circa middle school, 2005). I’ve discovered several thousand unread emails chronicling the past decade, organized in a delightfully unappealing, outdated, iconic blue UX. AOL Mail isn’t optimized or sleek like Gmail, but that’s the point — it’s become my digital equivalent to slow food, allowing me to casually peruse and cherry-pick emails devoid of urgency and relevance. Like many early email accounts, mine was registered under a pseudonym, and it’s a true joy to send and receive messages detached from the personal obligation I associate with always-on assault of Slack notifications.

本周，丹妮尔·坎帕莫尔(Danielle Campoamor)探索了由流行引起的怀旧热潮的驱动因素 ：“在以前，事情似乎更容易了。” 这可能是为什么，除了我的粉红色棒球帽和Ellio的冷冻披萨外，最近我还清理了我原来的AOL Mail帐户(大约在中学时期，2005年)。 在过去的十年中，我发现了数千封未读的电子邮件，它们以令人愉悦的，过时的，标志性的蓝色UX进行组织。 AOL Mail并没有像Gmail那样经过优化或流畅，但这就是要点-它已成为我的数字代表慢食，使我可以随意阅读和挑选邮件，而无需紧迫性和相关性。 像许多早期的电子邮件帐户一样，我的名字是用假名注册的，发送和接收与我与永远不停地攻击Slack通知相关的个人义务分离的消息是一种真正的快乐。

— Jean-Luc Bouchard, Senior Platform Editor, Marker

— Marker 高级平台编辑Jean-Luc Bouchard

You are signed up to receive emails from Marker. You can adjust your settings at the link in the footer of this email.

您已注册接收 Marker的电子邮件 。 您可以在此电子邮件页脚的链接中调整设置。

(Not already signed up to receive Buy/Sell/Hold? You can sign up for it here.)

(尚未注册接收买/卖/持有？您可以 在这里注册 。)

翻译自: https://marker.medium.com/online-shopping-is-soaring-heres-why-it-won-t-last-8a2c61bac30f