nba数据库统计_NBA板块的价值-从统计学上讲

nba数据库统计

The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot. — Bill Russel

这个想法不是要阻止每一个镜头。 这个想法是让你的对手相信你可能会阻挡每一个投篮。 —比尔·罗素

The block in basketball has long been a cornerstone in player highlight reels and a fundamental metric in a players’ defensive capabilities. However throughout Covid-19, without any live sports to watch, I and my good friend and roommate Jeremy have spent a little too much time watching old highlights and games. As time went on, we, like many other bored teenagers, began watching click bait YouTube videos that nobody can resist such as “Greatest NBA Blocks,” and “Most clutch shots in NBA history”. Following one of many “Greatest Blocks” videos, we noticed a pattern, that is, that so many of these blocks, particularly from the 2000’s era swat-blockers, ended up out of bounds. This made us wonder how valuable a block really is. So, we did what any curious student would do, we logged 9,602 NBA blocks off of NBA.com game logs from this season into excel, and did some analysis.

长期以来，篮球的障碍一直是球员精彩场面的基石，也是球员防守能力的基本指标。 但是，在整个Covid-19期间，我没有观看任何现场体育比赛，我和我的好朋友兼室友杰里米(Jeremy)花了太多时间观看旧的精彩场面和比赛。 随着时间的流逝，我们像许多其他无聊的青少年一样，开始观看YouTube上无法抗拒的点击诱饵视频，例如“ NBA最佳区”和“ NBA历史上最关键的投篮机会”。 在观看许多“最伟大的街区”视频之一之后，我们注意到了一种模式，即许多街区，尤其是2000年代的特警封锁线，最终都超出了范围。 这使我们想知道区块的真正价值。 因此，我们做了所有好奇的学生都会做的事情，我们将本赛季NBA.com的9,602个NBA盖帽记录为excel，并进行了一些分析。

We created a dynamic excel model, recording data with binary variables to best generate statistics, and recorded whether the block led to an o-board or d-board [P(O — Board)], whether the team scored given they receive an O-board [P(Point | O. Board)], as well as the tendencies among teams following an O board [P(score | 2 pointer)], and [P(miss | 3 pointer)]. With this basic set of data, along with some analysis, we came to some interesting conclusions.

我们创建了一个动态excel模型，用二进制变量记录数据以最好地生成统计数据，并记录该区块是导致O板还是D板[P(O-Board)]，以及在给定团队O的情况下是否得分板[P(Point | O. Board)]，以及跟随O板[P(得分| 2指针)]和[P(miss | 3指针)]的团队之间的趋势。 有了这些基本的数据集以及一些分析，我们得出了一些有趣的结论。

结果 (The Results)

The data, upon a surface-level analysis, told us nothing new: blocks are a good thing. Based on the data we analyzed, the average block will lead to an O-board 41% of the time, and of that 41% of O-boards, 39.3% lead to points. If you were to take these probabilities and multiply them by the average shot attempted — and point scored following an O-boards, you would come to find that the average points per possession given a block is 0.27. This is nearly a quarter of the average NBA points per possession, which is much higher at 1.09. So to nobody’s surprise, the data tells us the obvious, blocks are a good thing. Nonetheless, we’re not done here as we haven’t solved our original question, and after further siphoning through data and honing in on specific variables, we came to various surprises and interesting data points.

经过表面分析，这些数据并没有告诉我们任何新内容：块是一件好事。 根据我们分析的数据，平均阻塞将在41％的时间里产生一个O板，而在41％的O板上，占39.3％的点数。 如果您将这些概率乘以尝试的平均投篮次数-并在O型板上得分，您将发现给定格挡的每回合平均得分为0.27。 这几乎是每回合平均NBA得分的四分之一，远高于1.09。 因此，令人惊讶的是，数据告诉我们显而易见的是，块是一件好事。 但是，由于我们还没有解决最初的问题，因此我们在这里还没有做完，在进一步研究数据并细化特定变量之后，我们遇到了各种意外和有趣的数据点。

2000年代的阻碍者 (2000’s era blockers)

What was previously indisputable is now evident, blocks are valuable, but are some blocks more valuable than others? More specifically, when someone like Dwight Howard, who (it appears) often swats the ball out of bounds leading to an O-board block the ball, is that of any value? Once again, the answer is yes. To use Howard as an example, to my surprise, when Howard blocks the ball, the probabilities of the block leading to an O-board, as well as said o-board being converted into a point, were within one to three percentage points of the mean, displaying no real variation between Howard’s blocks, and all other blocks. So that answers our first question, that Dwight Howard, a typical sweat-era blocker, has no higher o-board percentages than the league average. Below is a list of some of the top rim protectors in the league, along with the statistics surrounding their blocks.

以前无可争辩的东西现在很明显，区块是有价值的，但是有些区块比其他有价值吗？ 更具体地说，当像德怀特·霍华德(Dwight Howard)这样的人(看上去)经常将球拍打到界外而导致O形板挡住球时，这有什么价值吗？ 再一次，答案是肯定的。 以霍华德为例，令我惊讶的是，当霍华德挡住球时，通往O形板的挡块的概率以及将O形板转换成一个点的概率都在该球的1-3个百分点之内。均值，在Howard的区块与所有其他区块之间没有显示出实际的变化。 这样就回答了我们的第一个问题：典型的出汗时代的盖帽手德怀特·霍华德(Dwight Howard)的O板百分比没有比联盟平均水平更高。 以下是联盟中一些顶级篮筐保护者的名单，以及围绕他们的盖帽的统计数据。

All of the data tells a relatively similar story, that is, in being a top ‘blocker’ in the NBA, your blocks are more valuable. As such, all of these players stand out as being predominantly below average in the best of ways.

所有数据都说明了一个相对相似的故事，也就是说，作为NBA的顶级“盖帽手”，您的盖帽更有价值。 因此，所有这些参与者都以最好的方式显着低于平均水平。

The only true anomaly is Hassan Whiteside. Interestingly, Whiteside has a reputation of being a ‘lazy’ player, who often lacks consistent hustle. In this case, this data further enhances this narrative, highlighting what may very well be a frequent occurrence in which Whiteside blocks a shot, and, for whatever reason, does not hustle for the rebound, thereby handing the opposing team a high percentage shot. Furthermore, Whiteside’s percentage of blocks leading to O-boards, as well as O-boards followed by points were numerous percentage points above the mean and were in the top 5% of all NBA players within these categories. Ignoring Hassan however, these statistics confirm a preconceived notion that the best shot blockers are not only effective but that their blocks are more valuable.

唯一真正的异常是Hassan Whiteside。 有趣的是，怀特塞德素有“懒惰”的美誉，经常缺乏连贯的忙碌。 在这种情况下，这些数据进一步增强了这种叙述方式，突出显示了很可能经常发生Whiteside挡球，并且无论出于何种原因，都不会为篮板而奔忙，从而使对方球队获得较高的命中率。 此外，怀特塞德通往O板的盖帽比例以及O板紧随其后的得分均比平均值高出许多百分点，并且在这些类别的所有NBA球员中排名前5％。 然而，无视哈桑，这些统计数据证实了一个先入为主的观念，即最佳的盖帽手不仅有效，而且他们的盖帽更有价值。

In addition, one player who stood out among the group of shot blockers, was, ironically enough, the shortest player in the list above. Two time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard. And to add insult to injury to the other 7 footers, Kawhi’s numbers stood out not only among the ten players above, but among all players. The low point percentage given an O-board, along with criminally low points per possession remained in the bottom five percent of all players who have recorded at least five blocks during the 2019–2020 season and in doing so, highlighting two key facets of Kawhi’s game.

此外，具有讽刺意味的是，在上述阻击手中脱颖而出的一名球员是上述名单中最矮的球员。 两次年度最佳防守球员Kawhi Leonard。 为了侮辱其他7个页脚，Kawhi的数据不仅在上述10个球员中脱颖而出，而且在所有球员中均脱颖而出。 在O-板的低分百分比以及每回合的犯罪率低点仍然排在所有在2019–2020赛季内至少记录了5个盖帽的球员的底部5％中，这突出了Kawhi的两个关键方面游戏。

Firstly, it shows the impact not swatting the ball has on Kawhi’s game, as more than most players with his frequency of blocks, he quite rarely intentionally swats the ball out of bounds, leading to a greater chance for a stop on defense following the block. This can partially be due to his lack of ego on the court, while also keeping in mind that the scenarios in which Kawhi gets blocks differs from most centers strictly due to varying positions. Secondly, it shows hustle. The stats reflect Kawhi, among other players with similar numbers, hustles to get rebounds and follow up blocks with continuous defense.

首先，它显示了不打球对Kawhi比赛的影响，因为与大多数球员一样，他的盖帽频率很高，因此他很少有意将球拍打出界，从而导致在盖帽后停下防守的机会更大。 这可能部分是由于他在球场上缺乏自我感，同时也要记住，由于位置的变化，Kawhi受到阻拦的情况与大多数中锋完全不同。 其次，它显示出喧嚣。 这些数据反映了卡怀(Kawhi)，以及其他人数相近的球员，都在努力获得篮板并继续防守。

其他值得注意的统计 (Other notable statistics)

One interesting statistic we came across was the Houston Rockets — post-Clint Capela. Following the Capela trade, when the Houston Rockets block a team and they get an O-board (a greater occurrence post-Capela), the opposing team’s shooting percentage is nearly 20 percentage points below the mean, leading to a much lower point per possession when blocked by the Rockets. This statistic, in particular, is quite interesting as it shows another side of the Houston Rockets, one that stats typically don’t show, namely — hustle. This statistic shows that despite team’s recovering the ball a greater amount when being blocked by the Rockets, the Rockets hustle to such a large extent on defense, that they significantly lower the opposing team’s shooting percentage. They do so to such a large extent such that despite a lack of a true center, they more than compensate in hustle.

我们遇到的一个有趣的统计数据是休斯顿火箭队-后克林特·卡佩拉。 在卡佩拉交易之后，休斯顿火箭队封锁了一支球队并获得O牌(在卡佩拉之后发生的机会更大)，对方球队的投篮命中率比平均值低了近20个百分点，导致每回合得分低得多当被火箭封锁时。 尤其是，该统计数据非常有趣，因为它显示了休斯顿火箭队的另一面，即通常不显示的统计数据，即-喧嚣。 该统计数据表明，尽管球队在被火箭阻挡时能将球恢复得更多，但火箭在防守时却非常忙碌，以致他们大大降低了对方球队的投篮命中率。 他们这样做的程度如此之大，以至于尽管缺乏真正的中心，他们也可以弥补喧嚣。

结论性思想 (Concluding thoughts)

We can’t conclude without acknowledging just how much more being a shot-blocker affects the game than the block itself. For most players, seeing someone like Dwight Howard or Rudy Gobert in the paint is enough on its own to cause them to adjust or rethink their play. The presence of a shot-blocker, along with the other ways in which they affect the flow of the game beyond blocking shots cannot be understated. This is important as this is a stat which most statistics fail to identify. Most importantly, shot-blocking isn’t going anywhere. No matter what critics say, if a player gets the opportunity to block a shot the data is, unnecessarily so if I might add, indisputable that blocking shots is a good thing. Should you avoid swatting it if you can, yes, 100%. Nevertheless, the importance in contributing to the best of your ability not only for the block, but following is equally evident in players such as Hassan Whiteside, whose blocks are of less value than that of the average player, and when the Trailblazers lose by one, lose by two, it only makes you wonder… Nevertheless, despite Whiteside having a higher opponent scoring percentage when blocking than the mean, his blocks still yield a much lower opponent score percentage than during possessions in which the ball is not blocked.

我们不能不得出结论，那就是作为盖帽手，对比赛的影响要比对盖帽本身的影响大得多。 对于大多数玩家而言，在油漆区看到像德怀特·霍华德(Dwight Howard)或鲁迪·戈伯特(Rudy Gobert)之类的人物足以使他们调整或重新思考比赛。 阻击器的存在以及它们影响阻击以外的游戏流程的其他方式，不能被低估。 这很重要，因为这是大多数统计信息无法识别的统计信息。 最重要的是，镜头阻挡不会消失。 不管批评家怎么说，如果球员有机会盖帽，那么毫无疑问，如果我可以补充一点，盖帽无疑是一件好事。 如果可以的话，应该避免乱打它，是的，是100％。 尽管如此，在尽力而为的前提下，不仅要为盖帽做出贡献，而且在诸如哈桑·怀特塞德(Hassan Whiteside)这样的球员中发挥跟随的重要性也很明显，哈桑·怀特塞德(Hassan Whiteside)的盖帽的价值不及普通球员，而且开拓者输掉了，两分之差，这只会让您感到奇怪...尽管怀特塞德在盖帽时的对手得分百分比高于平均水平，但他的盖帽仍然比在没有阻挡球的情况下对手得分百分比低得多。

In addition, we also learn from this that the concept “height don’t measure heart” applies to basketball equally as much as it does in baseball. Kawhi Leonard and the Houston Rockets are just two examples that demonstrate the extent to which players and teams hustle and fundamentally outwork their opponent to such an extent that it supplements for, and in this case exceeds the effectiveness of many other players with natural advantages.

此外，我们还从中学到，“身高不能衡量心脏”的概念与篮球一样，同样适用于篮球。 卡怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)和休斯敦火箭队(休斯顿火箭队)只是两个例子，展示了球员和球队在某种程度上奔忙并从根本上超越对手的程度，以至于可以补充并在这种情况下超过许多其他具有自然优势的球员的效力。

For more information regarding the raw data, along with inquiries into the statistics and validity of the report, please feel free to message Harrison Berman or Jeremy Klotz on LinkedIn.

有关原始数据的更多信息，以及对报告的统计信息和有效性的查询，请随时在LinkedIn上向Harrison Berman或Jeremy Klotz发送消息。

翻译自: https://medium.com/@harrison.berman/the-value-of-an-nba-block-statistically-speaking-e0f97cf3fe73

nba数据库统计