As our software becomes more Web-centric and our devices cheaper, Linux is becoming the operating system on everyone’s lips for 2009. Sorry, Microsoft [MSFT]. If this week’s news is any indication, you’ve been served.
当软件开始变得以网络为中心，而硬件设备也变得更加便宜的时候，Linux就成为人人谈论的2009年操作系统。抱歉，微软公司[MSFT]。要是本周的新闻有什么蛛丝马迹的话，你们已经发出暗示。
The biggest catalyst for the Linux revolution will be netbooks: Gartner [IT] has predicted that about 8 million of the diminutive machines will be sold next year, with that number rising to 50 million (yes, 5-0 million) by 2012. Right now, many netbooks come pre-loaded with Windows XP, but Microsoft has set a deadline of June 2010 for XP installations. Since most of the machines in question feature low-power chips like Intel's [INTC] Atom and inexpensive parts, and sell for less than $500, Windows Vista isn’t really an option; the per-machine licensing fee is too high, and the  software itself is too bulky and power-hungry for low-end hardware.
Linux革命的最大促进因素将是网簿：Gartner[IT]已经作出预测，明年将售出这种小巧玲珑的机器约800万台，到2012年，这一数字将上升到5000万（是的，5千万）。目前，许多网簿预装Windows XP，但微软已经确定，安装XP的最后期限为2010年6月。由于大多数考虑中的机器以低功耗芯片如英特尔的[INTC] Atom 和廉价零部件为特色，而且售价低于500美元，所以，确实不能选用Windows Vista；每台机器许可费太高，而且软件本身过于庞大，用于低端硬件耗电厉害。
The way Windows is built is also anathema to the netbook philosophy. It’s coded to index, browse and execute local files quickly and easily -- a task that is almost moot on netbooks, which are geared toward working on the Web. Windows is also geared towards handling multimedia, which netbooks don’t have the hardware for; small hard drives, no optical drives, and weak video cards mean that DVDs and music aren’t really an option in the first place. All the lowly netbook really wants is something to connect it to the almighty cloud -- everything else is just dead weight.
Windows的安装配置方式对于网簿哲学来说同样极其讨厌。Windows的代码能够迅速方便地索引、浏览和执行本地文件——这一任务对于面向联网工作的网簿几乎毫无意义。并且经过适当的配置，Windows能够处理多媒体，而网簿却没有处理多媒体的硬件，只有小容量硬盘，没有光驱，而且功能不佳的视频卡还意味着，从一开始，DVD和音乐确实就不是一个选项。低档的网簿真正想要的是，把它连接到无所不能的云（计算）——其它的一切只是沉重的负担。
So it comes as no surprise that Canonical Limited, the organization that runs Ubuntu Linux distribution, has been collaborating with processor-maker ARM to design a version of Linux that is specially geared towards netbooks. ARM designed the processor inside Google’s open-source smartphone, the G1, and there's a rumor that an ARM-powered Apple netbook is on the way. Existing versions of Linux can usually run fine on most netbooks, but they haven’t truly been designed as Web-only. They’re usually just bare-bones desktop operating systems with simplistic interfaces. As such, they tend to turn off consumers, who find them clumsy to use, therefore returning Linux based computers 4 or 5 times as frequently as Windows machines. ARM and Canonical mean to overcome that initial consumer discomfort, but to do so, they’ll need a Linux version that is clean, intuitive and downright pretty.
因此，经营Ubuntu Linux发行版的机构，Canonical有限公司已经与处理器制造商ARM合作，设计一个专门面向网簿的Linux版本，这件事就不足为奇。ARM设计了Google的开源智能手机G1内部的处理器，并有传闻说，ARM驱动的Apple网簿正在路上。Linux的现有版本通常能够很好地运行在大多数网簿上，不过，它们并非真正设计为网络专用。它们通常只是极其简陋的桌面操作系统，接口过分简单。就这点而论，它们往往使发觉它们难于使用的消费者感到厌烦，因此，退回的基于Linux的电脑常常是Windows机器的4或5倍。ARM和Canonical想要消除消费者最初的那种苦恼，但要这样做，势必需要一个界面明晰、易于理解和使用并且十分悦目的Linux版本。
Handhelds are also turning towards open-source solutions to evade the cost and bulk of Windows. Palm [PALM] has been hinting this week that it will launch a new platform at the Consumer Electronics Show on January 8, in an effort to claw its way back into competition with RIM [RIMM] and Apple [AAPL], makers of the BlackBerry and iPhone 3G. In the past, Palm has used both its own proprietary Palm OS as well as Windows Mobile, but the Palm OS is in desperate need of better Web integration and Windows Mobile has only acted as a stop-gap in Palm’s loss of smartphone marketshare (the device maker posted losses of $41 million last quarter). Analysts are roundly predicting something Linux-based to come from the device-maker come January.
为了逃避Windows的费用和臃肿，手持设备也转向开源解决方案。Palm [PALM]本周已经暗示，它将在1月8日举行的消费电子展览会上推介一个新平台，努力夺回与RIM[RIMM ]和苹果[AAPL]竞争的优势，它们是黑莓和iPhone 3G的制造商。在过去，Palm公司使用其自有的Palm OS以及Windows Mobile操作系统，不过，Palm OS极度需要更好的网络集成，而在Palm智能手机损失市场份额（该设备生产商上个季度亏损4100万美元）的情况下，Windows Mobile只充当临时替代品。分析家全面预测，源自设备制造商的一些基于Linux的装置将出现在一月份。
So why are these companies turning to Linux instead of building their own platforms from scratch? Well, it’s clear that the software inside many netbooks and smartphones needs to be reconceived, for purposes of both functionality and merchandising. If consumers see a new Palm OS that looks anything like they old, they’ll assume it’s the same as it's been for the last few years. But if it looks all-new and can back up its appearance with usability -- Palm might have a fighting chance at putting the Treo back on top. A great shortcut in the ground-up construction of an operating system is porting Linux drivers and utilities, which already exist and are cheap (or free) to use.
那么，为什么这些公司转向Linux而非从零开始建造自己的平台呢？嗯，很明显，为了功能，也为了推销，许多网簿和智能手机里面的软件需要重新构思。如果消费者看到的新型Palm OS与旧的相似，他们就会以为这与过去几年的一模一样。但是，如果看上去全新，而且使用性能支持外观——那么，Palm也许就有一个成败均有可能的公平机会，把Treo放回最高处。完全建设一个操作系统的最好捷径就是移植Linux驱动程序和实用工具，那些软件早已有了，而且用费低廉（甚至免费）。
So where will all this leave Windows, and the Mac OS? It’s true that more and more of our work is aligning with the talents of cheap, durable and portable Internet devices that gain their access from the cloud, and neither Apple or Microsoft cater effectively to that niche. But there are certain things that the cloud just can’t handle: namely, processor-intensive multimedia work. And while consumers are certainly more reliant on Web services than ever, they’re also consuming, sharing, and creating digital video, large-format photography, music and presentations that are richer and more data-dense than ever before.
那么，这一切将给Windows和Mac OS留下什么位置呢？事实上，我们的工作越来越需要与具有廉价、耐用和轻便这些特性的互联网设备密切配合，以从云（计算）获得存取访问，苹果或者微软都不能有效地满足特殊且有利可图的那个市场角落。但也有一些是云（计算）无法处理的：即处理器密集型的多媒体任务。而当消费者比以往任何时候更加依赖网络服务的时候，他们也会比以前更丰富多彩地消费、共享和创造数字视频、大画幅摄影、音乐和表演，而且数据更密集。
So Macs and PCs as we know them won’t be going anywhere, but as netbooks and smartphones proliferate, the total marketshare of Internet-capable devices enjoyed by Apple and Microsoft will be greatly diluted. That means that their respective operating systems will have to learn to play nicely with Linux -- a tall order for the industry’s two most stubborn companies. Unfortunately, they’ll have no choice; that’s the nature of a revolution.
所以，正如我们所知，Mac和PC去不了随便哪里，但由于网簿和智能手机激增，苹果和微软所享有的具有互联网功能的设备的市场总份额将大大减少。这意味着，它们各自的操作系统必须学会跟Linux一起很好地玩——这对该行业的两个最顽固公司是一苛求。遗憾的是，它们将没有别的选择；那是革命的本性。