python数据预测算法心得体会_Python实现的随机森林算法与简单总结

本文实例讲述了Python实现的随机森林算法。分享给大家供大家参考,具体如下:

随机森林是数据挖掘中非常常用的分类预测算法,以分类或回归的决策树为基分类器。算法的一些基本要点:

*对大小为m的数据集进行样本量同样为m的有放回抽样;

*对K个特征进行随机抽样,形成特征的子集,样本量的确定方法可以有平方根、自然对数等;

*每棵树完全生成,不进行剪枝;

*每个样本的预测结果由每棵树的预测投票生成(回归的时候,即各棵树的叶节点的平均)

著名的python机器学习包scikit learn的文档对此算法有比较详尽的介绍: http://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/ensemble.html#random-forests

出于个人研究和测试的目的,基于经典的Kaggle 101泰坦尼克号乘客的数据集,建立模型并进行评估。比赛页面及相关数据集的下载:https://www.kaggle.com/c/titanic

泰坦尼克号的沉没,是历史上非常著名的海难。突然感到,自己面对的不再是冷冰冰的数据,而是用数据挖掘的方法,去研究具体的历史问题,也是饶有兴趣。言归正传,模型的主要的目标,是希望根据每个乘客的一系列特征,如性别、年龄、舱位、上船地点等,对其是否能生还进行预测,是非常典型的二分类预测问题。数据集的字段名及实例如下:

PassengerId

Survived

Pclass

Name

Sex

Age

SibSp

Parch

Ticket

Fare

Cabin

Embarked

1

0

3

Braund, Mr. Owen Harris

male

22

1

0

A/5 21171

7.25

S

2

1

1

Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Thayer)

female

38

1

0

PC 17599

71.2833

C85

C

3

1

3

Heikkinen, Miss. Laina

female

26

0

0

STON/O2. 3101282

7.925

S

4

1

1

Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)

female

35

1

0

113803

53.1

C123

S

5

0

3

Allen, Mr. William Henry

male

35

0

0

373450

8.05

S

值得说明的是,SibSp是指sister brother spouse,即某个乘客随行的兄弟姐妹、丈夫、妻子的人数,Parch指parents,children

下面给出整个数据处理及建模过程,基于ubuntu+python 3.4( anaconda科学计算环境已经集成一系列常用包,pandas numpy sklearn等,这里强烈推荐)

懒得切换输入法,写的时候主要的注释都是英文,中文的注释是后来补充的:-)

# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-

"""

@author: kim

"""

from model import *#载入基分类器的代码

#ETL:same procedure to training set and test set

training=pd.read_csv('train.csv',index_col=0)

test=pd.read_csv('test.csv',index_col=0)

SexCode=pd.DataFrame([1,0],index=['female','male'],columns=['Sexcode']) #将性别转化为01

training=training.join(SexCode,how='left',on=training.Sex)

training=training.drop(['Name','Ticket','Embarked','Cabin','Sex'],axis=1)#删去几个不参与建模的变量,包括姓名、船票号,船舱号

test=test.join(SexCode,how='left',on=test.Sex)

test=test.drop(['Name','Ticket','Embarked','Cabin','Sex'],axis=1)

print('ETL IS DONE!')

#MODEL FITTING

#===============PARAMETER AJUSTMENT============

min_leaf=1

min_dec_gini=0.0001

n_trees=5

n_fea=int(math.sqrt(len(training.columns)-1))

#==============================================

'''''

BEST SCORE:0.83

min_leaf=30

min_dec_gini=0.001

n_trees=20

'''

#ESSEMBLE BY RANDOM FOREST

FOREST={}

tmp=list(training.columns)

tmp.pop(tmp.index('Survived'))

feaList=pd.Series(tmp)

for t in range(n_trees):

# fea=[]

feasample=feaList.sample(n=n_fea,replace=False)#select feature

fea=feasample.tolist()

fea.append('Survived')

# feaNew=fea.append(target)

subset=training.sample(n=len(training),replace=True)#generate the dataset with replacement

subset=subset[fea]

# print(str(t)+' Classifier built on feature:')

# print(list(fea))

FOREST[t]=tree_grow(subset,'Survived',min_leaf,min_dec_gini) #save the tree

#MODEL PREDICTION

#======================

currentdata=training

output='submission_rf_20151116_30_0.001_20'

#======================

prediction={}

for r in currentdata.index:#a row

prediction_vote={1:0,0:0}

row=currentdata.get(currentdata.index==r)

for n in range(n_trees):

tree_dict=FOREST[n] #a tree

p=model_prediction(tree_dict,row)

prediction_vote[p]+=1

vote=pd.Series(prediction_vote)

prediction[r]=list(vote.order(ascending=False).index)[0]#the vote result

result=pd.Series(prediction,name='Survived_p')

#del prediction_vote

#del prediction

#result.to_csv(output)

t=training.join(result,how='left')

accuracy=round(len(t[t['Survived']==t['Survived_p']])/len(t),5)

print(accuracy)

上述是随机森林的代码,如上所述,随机森林是一系列决策树的组合,决策树每次分裂,用Gini系数衡量当前节点的“不纯净度”,如果按照某个特征的某个分裂点对数据集划分后,能够让数据集的Gini下降最多(显著地减少了数据集输出变量的不纯度),则选为当前最佳的分割特征及分割点。代码如下:

# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-

"""

@author: kim

"""

import pandas as pd

import numpy as np

#import sklearn as sk

import math

def tree_grow(dataframe,target,min_leaf,min_dec_gini):

tree={} #renew a tree

is_not_leaf=(len(dataframe)>min_leaf)

if is_not_leaf:

fea,sp,gd=best_split_col(dataframe,target)

if gd>min_dec_gini:

tree['fea']=fea

tree['val']=sp

# dataframe.drop(fea,axis=1) #1116 modified

l,r=dataSplit(dataframe,fea,sp)

l.drop(fea,axis=1)

r.drop(fea,axis=1)

tree['left']=tree_grow(l,target,min_leaf,min_dec_gini)

tree['right']=tree_grow(r,target,min_leaf,min_dec_gini)

else:#return a leaf

return leaf(dataframe[target])

else:

return leaf(dataframe[target])

return tree

def leaf(class_lable):

tmp={}

for i in class_lable:

if i in tmp:

tmp[i]+=1

else:

tmp[i]=1

s=pd.Series(tmp)

s.sort(ascending=False)

return s.index[0]

def gini_cal(class_lable):

p_1=sum(class_lable)/len(class_lable)

p_0=1-p_1

gini=1-(pow(p_0,2)+pow(p_1,2))

return gini

def dataSplit(dataframe,split_fea,split_val):

left_node=dataframe[dataframe[split_fea]<=split_val]

right_node=dataframe[dataframe[split_fea]>split_val]

return left_node,right_node

def best_split_col(dataframe,target_name):

best_fea=''#modified 1116

best_split_point=0

col_list=list(dataframe.columns)

col_list.remove(target_name)

gini_0=gini_cal(dataframe[target_name])

n=len(dataframe)

gini_dec=-99999999

for col in col_list:

node=dataframe[[col,target_name]]

unique=node.groupby(col).count().index

for split_point in unique: #unique value

left_node,right_node=dataSplit(node,col,split_point)

if len(left_node)>0 and len(right_node)>0:

gini_col=gini_cal(left_node[target_name])*(len(left_node)/n)+gini_cal(right_node[target_name])*(len(right_node)/n)

if (gini_0-gini_col)>gini_dec:

gini_dec=gini_0-gini_col#decrease of impurity

best_fea=col

best_split_point=split_point

#print(col,split_point,gini_0-gini_col)

return best_fea,best_split_point,gini_dec

def model_prediction(model,row): #row is a df

fea=model['fea']

val=model['val']

left=model['left']

right=model['right']

if row[fea].tolist()[0]<=val:#get the value

branch=left

else:

branch=right

if ('dict' in str( type(branch) )):

prediction=model_prediction(branch,row)

else:

prediction=branch

return prediction

实际上,上面的代码还有很大的效率提升的空间,数据集不是很大的情况下,如果选择一个较大的输入参数,例如生成100棵树,就会显著地变慢;同时,将预测结果提交至kaggle进行评测,发现在测试集上的正确率不是很高,比使用sklearn里面相应的包进行预测的正确率(0.77512)要稍低一点 :-(  如果要提升准确率,两个大方向: 构造新的特征;调整现有模型的参数。

这里是抛砖引玉,欢迎大家对我的建模思路和算法的实现方法提出修改意见。

希望本文所述对大家Python程序设计有所帮助。

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