arena仿真

simulation with arena，原书第六版

目录

Chapter 1: What Is Simulation? .......................................................................................... 1

1.1 Modeling ............................................................................................................................1

1.1.1 What’s Being Modeled? ...............................................................................2

1.1.2 How About Just Playing with the System? ...................................................3

1.1.3 Sometimes You Can’t (or Shouldn’t) Play with the System .........................3

1.1.4 Physical Models ............................................................................................4

1.1.5 Logical (or Mathematical) Models ...............................................................4

1.1.6 What Do You Do with a Logical Model? .....................................................4

1.2 Computer Simulation .........................................................................................................5

1.2.1 Popularity and Advantages ...........................................................................5

1.2.2 The Bad News ...............................................................................................6

1.2.3 Different Kinds of Simulations .....................................................................7

1.3 How Simulations Get Done ...............................................................................................8

1.3.1 By Hand ........................................................................................................8

1.3.2 Programming in General-Purpose Languages ............................................10

1.3.3 Simulation Languages ................................................................................10

1.3.4 High-Level Simulators ................................................................................10

1.3.5 Where Arena Fits In ....................................................................................11

1.4 When Simulations Are Used ............................................................................................12

1.4.1 The Early Years ...........................................................................................12

1.4.2 The Formative Years ...................................................................................12

1.4.3 The Recent Past ..........................................................................................13

1.4.4 The Present .................................................................................................13

1.4.5 The Future ...................................................................................................14

Chapter 2: Fundamental Simulation Concepts ................................................................15

2.1 An Example .....................................................................................................................15

2.1.1 The System .................................................................................................15

2.1.2 Goals of the Study ......................................................................................17

2.2 Analysis Options ..............................................................................................................18

2.2.1 Educated Guessing ......................................................................................18

2.2.2 Queueing Theory ........................................................................................19

2.2.3 Mechanistic Simulation ..............................................................................20

2.3 Pieces of a Simulation Model ..........................................................................................20

2.3.1 Entities ........................................................................................................20

2.3.2 Attributes ....................................................................................................21

2.3.3 (Global) Variables .......................................................................................21

2.3.4 Resources ....................................................................................................22

2.3.5 Queues ........................................................................................................22

2.3.6 Statistical Accumulators .............................................................................23

2.3.7 Events .........................................................................................................23

2.3.8 Simulation Clock ........................................................................................24

2.3.9 Starting and Stopping .................................................................................24

2.4 Event-Driven Hand Simulation ........................................................................................25

2.4.1 Outline of the Action ..................................................................................25

2.4.2 Keeping Track of Things ............................................................................26

2.4.3 Carrying It Out ............................................................................................28

2.4.4 Finishing Up ...............................................................................................32

2.5 Event- and Process-Oriented Simulation .........................................................................32

2.6 Randomness in Simulation ..............................................................................................34

2.6.1 Random Input, Random Output ..................................................................34

2.6.2 Replicating the Example .............................................................................35

2.6.3 Comparing Alternatives ..............................................................................36

2.7 Simulating with Spreadsheets ..........................................................................................37

2.7.1 A News Vendor Problem.............................................................................37

2.7.2 A Single-Server Queue ...............................................................................43

2.7.3 Extensions and Limitations.........................................................................47

2.8 Overview of a Simulation Study ......................................................................................47

2.9 Exercises ..........................................................................................................................48

Chapter 3: A Guided Tour Through Arena ........................................................................ 53

3.1 Starting Up .......................................................................................................................53

3.2 Exploring the Arena Window ...........................................................................................55

3.2.1 Opening a Model ........................................................................................55

3.2.2 Basic Interaction and Pieces of the Arena Window ....................................56

3.2.3 Panning, Zooming, Viewing, and Aligning in the Flowchart View ............58

3.2.4 Modules ......................................................................................................60

3.2.5 Internal Model Documentation ...................................................................61

3.3 Browsing Through an Existing Model: Model 3-1 ..........................................................62

3.3.1 The Create Flowchart Module ....................................................................62

3.3.2 The Entity Data Module .............................................................................63

3.3.3 The Process Flowchart Module ..................................................................64

3.3.4 The Resource Data Module ........................................................................66

3.3.5 The Queue Data Module .............................................................................67

3.3.6 Animating Resources and Queues ..............................................................67

3.3.7 The Dispose Flowchart Module ..................................................................67

3.3.8 Connecting Flowchart Modules ..................................................................68

3.3.9 Dynamic Plots .............................................................................................69

3.3.10 Dressing Things Up ....................................................................................71

3.3.11 Setting the Run Conditions .........................................................................72

3.3.12 Running It ...................................................................................................73

3.3.13 Viewing the Reports ....................................................................................74

3.4 Building Model 3-1 Yourself ............................................................................................79

3.4.1 New Model Window and Basic Process Panel ...........................................80

3.4.2 Place and Connect the Flowchart Modules.................................................81

3.4.3 The Create Flowchart Module ....................................................................81

3.4.4 Displays ......................................................................................................82

3.4.5 The Entity Data Module .............................................................................83

3.4.6 The Process Flowchart Module ..................................................................83

3.4.7 The Resource and Queue Data Modules ....................................................84

3.4.8 Resource Animation ....................................................................................84

3.4.9 The Dispose Flowchart Module ..................................................................85

3.4.10 Dynamic Plots .............................................................................................85

3.4.11 Window Dressing ........................................................................................88

3.4.12 The Run . Setup Dialog Boxes .................................................................89

3.4.13 Establishing Named Views .........................................................................89

3.5 Case Study: Specialized Serial Processing vs. Generalized Parallel Processing .............90

3.5.1 Model 3-2: Serial Processing – Specialized Separated Work .....................90

3.5.2 Model 3-3: Parallel Processing – Generalized Integrated Work .................93

3.5.3 Models 3-4 and 3-5: The Effect of Task-Time Variability ..........................95

3.6 More on Menus, Toolbars, Drawing, and Printing ...........................................................98

3.6.1 Menus .........................................................................................................98

3.6.2 Toolbars ....................................................................................................103

3.6.3 Drawing ....................................................................................................106

3.6.4 Printing .....................................................................................................107

3.7 Help! ..............................................................................................................................108

3.8 More on Running Models ..............................................................................................109

3.9 Summary and Forecast ...................................................................................................110

3.10 Exercises ........................................................................................................................110

Chapter 4: Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs ........................................................121

4.1 Model 4-1: An Electronic Assembly and Test System ...................................................121

4.1.1 Developing a Modeling Approach ............................................................122

4.1.2 Building the Model ...................................................................................123

4.1.3 Running the Model ...................................................................................134

4.1.4 Viewing the Results ..................................................................................136

4.2 Model 4-2: The Enhanced Electronic Assembly and Test System ................................138

4.2.1 Expanding Resource Representation: Schedules and States ....................139

4.2.2 Resource Schedules ..................................................................................140

4.2.3 Resource Failures ......................................................................................144

4.2.4 Frequencies ...............................................................................................146

4.2.5 Results of Model 4-2 ................................................................................149

4.3 Model 4-3: Enhancing the Animation ............................................................................153

4.3.1 Changing Animation Queues ....................................................................154

4.3.2 Changing Entity Pictures ..........................................................................156

4.3.3 Adding Resource Pictures .........................................................................158

4.3.4 Adding Variables and Plots .......................................................................160

4.4 Model 4-4: The Electronic Assembly and Test System with Part Transfers ..................162

4.4.1 Some New Arena Concepts: Stations and Transfers .................................162

4.4.2 Adding the Route Logic ............................................................................164

4.4.3 Altering the Animation .............................................................................167

4.5 Finding and Fixing Errors ..............................................................................................171

4.6 Input Analysis: Specifying Model Parameters and Distributions ..................................178

4.6.1 Deterministic vs. Random Inputs .............................................................179

4.6.2 Collecting Data .........................................................................................180

4.6.3 Using Data ................................................................................................181

4.6.4 Fitting Input Distributions via the Input Analyzer ....................................182

4.6.5 No Data? ...................................................................................................190

4.6.6 Nonstationary Arrival Processes ...............................................................193

4.6.7 Multivariate and Correlated Input Data ....................................................194

4.7 Summary and Forecast ...................................................................................................194

4.8 Exercises ........................................................................................................................194

Chapter 5: Modeling Detailed Operations ..................................................................... 207

5.1 Model 5-1: A Simple Call Center System......................................................................208

5.2 New Modeling Issues .....................................................................................................209

5.2.1 Customer Rejections and Balking ............................................................209

5.2.2 Three-Way Decisions ................................................................................210

5.2.3 Variables and Expressions ........................................................................210

5.2.4 Storages .....................................................................................................211

5.2.5 Terminating or Steady State ......................................................................211

5.3 Modeling Approach .......................................................................................................212

5.4 Building the Model ........................................................................................................214

5.4.1 Create Arrivals and Direct to Service .......................................................214

5.4.2 Arrival Cutoff Logic .................................................................................220

5.4.3 Technical Support Calls ............................................................................222

5.4.4 Sales Calls .................................................................................................225

5.4.5 Order-Status Calls .....................................................................................226

5.4.6 System Exit and Run Setup ......................................................................232

5.4.7 Animation .................................................................................................234

5.5 Model 5-2: The Enhanced Call Center System ..............................................................237

5.5.1 The New Problem Description .................................................................237

5.5.2 New Concepts ...........................................................................................239

5.5.3 Defi ning the Data ......................................................................................241

5.5.4 Modifying the Model ................................................................................245

5.6 Model 5-3: The Enhanced Call Center with More Output Performance Measures .......250

5.7 Model 5-4: An (s, S) Inventory Simulation ....................................................................257

5.7.1 System Description ...................................................................................257

5.7.2 Simulation Model .....................................................................................259

5.8 Summary and Forecast ...................................................................................................270

5.9 Exercises ........................................................................................................................271

Chapter 6: Statistical Analysis of Output from Terminating Simulations ................... 279

6.1 Time Frame of Simulations ............................................................................................280

6.2 Strategy for Data Collection and Analysis .....................................................................280

6.3 Confi dence Intervals for Terminating Systems ..............................................................282

6.4 Comparing Two Scenarios .............................................................................................287

6.5 Evaluating Many Scenarios with the Process Analyzer (PAN)......................................291

6.6 Searching for an Optimal Scenario with OptQuest ........................................................296

6.7 Periodic Statistics ...........................................................................................................302

6.8 Summary and Forecast ...................................................................................................303

6.9 Exercises ........................................................................................................................303

Chapter 7: Intermediate Modeling and Steady-State Statistical Analysis....................311

7.1 Model 7-1: A Small Manufacturing System ..................................................................311

7.1.1 New Arena Concepts ................................................................................312

7.1.2 The Modeling Approach ...........................................................................314

7.1.3 The Data Modules .....................................................................................315

7.1.4 The Logic Modules ...................................................................................317

7.1.5 Animation .................................................................................................324

7.1.6 Verifi cation ................................................................................................326