题:
一个聚会需要邀请多少人,才能让其中很可能有3人的生日相同?
解:
设房间人数为m,一年有n天
1<= i <= m,1<= r <= n
Pr{bi=r} = 1/n;
Pr{bi=r and bj=r and bk=r} = Pr{bi=r} * Pr{bj=r} * Pr{bk=r} = 1/n^3;
Pr{bi=bj=bk} = ∑Pr{bi=r and bj=r and bk=r} (r=1,2,3...n)
= n * 1/n^3 = 1/n^2;
设指示器随机变量 Xijk= { 1 如果i,j,k 生日相同
{ 0 否则
所以E[Xijk]=Pr{bi=bj=bk}= 1/n^2;
X= ∑∑∑Xijk (i=1,2...m-2,j=i+1...m-1,k=j+1...m)
E[X] = E[∑∑∑Xijk ]
= ∑∑∑E[Xijk]
= C(3,m) * 1/n^2
= m(m-1)(m-2) / (6 * n^2)
则:
E[X] >= 1;