题意如下
Oscar has lost his dog in either forest A (with probability 0.4) or in forest B (with probability 0.6).
If the dog is in forest A and Oscar spends a day searching for it in forest A, the conditional probability that he will find the dog that day is 0.25. Similarly, if the dog is in forest B and Oscar spends a day looking for it there, he will find the dog that day with probability 0.15.
The dog cannot go from one forest to the other. Oscar can search only in the daytime, and he can travel from one forest to the other only overnight.
The dog is alive during day 0, when Oscar loses it, and during day 1, when Oscar starts searching. It is alive during day 2 with probability 2