美赛论文写作II

Model Preparation

1. Data Overview

1. 这个问题并没有直接为我们提供数据，所以我们需要考虑在模型构建过程中需要收集哪些数据。通过对这个问题的分析，我们需要收集(澳大利亚维多利亚州的)相关信息，如(经纬度、海拔高度、野火数量等)。由于数据量大，不方便将全部列出，所以将数据可视化显示是一种很好的方法。

The question did not provide us with data directly, so we need to consider which data to

collect in the model building. Through the analysis of the problem, we need to collect the relevant information of (Victoria, Australia), such as (latitude and longitude, altitude, number of wildfires and so on.) Due to the large amount of data, it is not convenient to list them all, so visualizing the data for display is a good method.

1. Data Collection

澳大利亚维多利亚州的官方网站被查询，获得了大量关于野火的数据。其他数据源见表2。

(The official website of FEC in Victoria, Australia) was queried and lots of data about (wild fires) were obtained. And other data sources are shown in Table 2.

Sensitivity and Robustness Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

1. ……是合理的，也是可以解释的。灵敏度试验得到的曲线变化趋势与实际情况一致。

which is reasonable and can be explained. The trend of the curve obtained by sensitivity test is consistent with the actual situation.

Robustness Analysis

Assumptions and Explanations

1. 考虑到实际问题总是包含许多复杂的因素，首先，我们需要做出合理的假设来简化模型，每个假设都有相应的解释：

Considering that practical problems always contain many complex factors, first of all, we need to make reasonable assumptions to simplify the model, and each hypothesis is closely followed by its corresponding explanation:

1. 模型假设常见的情况：

1. 题目明确给出的假设条件
2. 排除生活中的小概率事件
3. 仅考虑问题中的核心因素，而考虑次要因素或无关因素的影响
4. 使用模型中要求的假设
5. 对模型中的参数形式或者分布进行假设
6. 和题目联系很紧密的一些假设，主要是为了简化模型。

1. 模型假设的合理性：

引用别人的文献或者资料

如果是对对模型中的参数形式或者分布进行假设，可以在正文中运用实际数据进行画图或者检验。

1. 收集的数据可以被认为是可靠的，可以反映……（维多利亚野火的变化）。

The collected data can be considered reliable and can …… (reflect the changing laws of the Victorian wildfire.)

维多利亚时代的历史野火数据、纬度、经度和其他数据都来自权威网站，如澳大利亚联邦选举委员会和美国宇航局的官方网站，而且精度很高。

(The historical Victorian wildfire data, latitude, longitude and other data) come from authoritative websites, such as (the official website of FEC in Australia and NASA), with high accuracy.

1. 为了简化对个别部分的分析，还做出了其他假设。这些假设将在适当的地点进行讨论。

Additional assumptions are made to simplify analysis for individual sections. These assumptions will be discussed at the appropriate locations.

Notations

1. 表1列出了本文中使用的一些重要的数学符号。

Some important mathematical notations used in this paper are listed in Table 1.

1. 注意：有些变化在这里没有列出，我们将在每一节里面详细介绍。

Note: There are some variables that are not listed here and will be discussed in detail in each section.