这篇文章讲解的 条件概率 贝叶斯概率 很好 http://www.core.org.cn/NR/rdonlyres/Civil-and-Environmental-Engineering/1-017Computing-and-Data-Analysis-for-Environmental-ApplicationsFall2003/62A96B91-D71B-4734-80E8-E5763316BFA9/0/class03_6.pdf