奥兹的 “末日 “备忘录警告微软后PC时代的到来

奥兹的 "末日 "备忘录警告微软后PC时代的到来 Ozzie’s ‘doomsday’ memo warns Microsoft of post-PC days

一位行业分析师今天说，微软离任高管 Ray Ozzie 刚刚发表的备忘录是一份 "末日式 "的信笺，呼吁该公司进一步推动云计算，否则就会灭亡。
Departing Microsoft executive Ray Ozzie’s just-published memo is a “doomsday-ish” missive that calls on the company to push further into the cloud or perish, an industry analyst said today.

奥兹2006年接替比尔-盖茨担任微软首席软件架构师。他最近将离开公司，不过微软没有披露他的离职日期。
Ozzie, who replaced Bill Gates as Microsoft’s chief software architect in 2006, is leaving the company, although Microsoft has not disclosed the date of his departure.

位于华盛顿州柯克兰市一家专门跟踪微软的研究公司“Directions on Microsoft”，其分析师韦斯-米勒（Wes Miller）说，他的 "新一天的黎明 "备忘录（日期为10月28日）试图将微软的注意力集中在PC将不再统治消费者或商业计算的那一天。
His “Dawn of a New Day” memorandum, which was dated Oct. 28, is an attempt to focus Microsoft’s attention on the day when PCs will no longer rule consumer or business computing, said Wes Miller, an analyst at Directions on Microsoft, a Kirkland, Wash. research firm that specializes in tracking Microsoft.

米勒在1998年至2004年期间为微软的 MSN 和 Windows 小组工作。
Miller worked for Microsoft from 1998 to 2004, in both the MSN and Windows groups.

雷-奥兹备忘录的标签云显示他对设备和服务的重视。
A tag cloud of Ray Ozzie’s memo shows the emphasis he put on devices and services.

米勒说："如果你对备忘录做一个标签云，你会发现他很少提到PC或Windows这些词。标签云是对文件或网站中最常出现的词语的可视化表示。米勒指出：“最突出的词是设备和服务，这表明奥兹认为未来将围绕连接的设备和持续的服务”。
“If you do a tag cloud of the memo, you’ll see he rarely mentions the words PC or Windows,” said Miller. A tag cloud is a visual representation of the words that appear most often in a document or on a Web site. “The words that are most prominent,” Miller noted, “are devices and services, and that shows that Ozzie believes the future will revolve around connected devices and continuous services.”

米勒继续说，简而言之，奥兹的备忘录描述了这样一个时代：个人电脑–微软35年业务的基础，特别是其利润丰厚的Windows特许经营权–已被一系列简单、低成本的设备所取代，这些设备不断与互联网连接，并通过互联网与基于云的服务连接。
In a nutshell, continued Miller, Ozzie’s memo spells out the time when the PC – the foundation of Microsoft’s 35-year-old business, particularly its lucrative Windows franchise – has been replaced by a slew of simple, low-cost devices that are constantly connected to the Internet, and through that, to cloud-based services.

Ozzie写道："明天的设备有一个关键区别。“它们相对简单，从根本上说，从一出生就像电器一样。它们可以立即使用，可以互换，而且可以无损更换。”
“There’s one key difference in tomorrow’s devices,” wrote Ozzie. “They’re relatively simple and fundamentally appliance-like by design, from birth. They’re instantly usable, interchangeable, and trivially replaceable without loss.”

这份公报在很多方面都让人想起2005年奥兹在加入微软后不久发表的公报，他在公报中警告说公司需要跳上云端。而这也是他到任后在微软所做努力的延续。
The communique is in many ways reminiscent of the one Ozzie published in 2005 shortly after joining Microsoft, in which he warned that the company needed to jump on the cloud. And it’s a continuation of what he has tried to do at Microsoft since his arrival.

"雷已经成为互联协作和云的代名词，"米勒认为，他引用了 Azure 作为奥兹在微软最大的成功。“他在微软进行了英勇的斗争，但他说公司需要继续投资于云计算。”
“Ray has become synonymous with connected collaboration and the cloud,” Miller argued, citing Azure as Ozzie’s biggest success at Microsoft. “He’s fought the valiant fight at Microsoft, but he’s saying the company needs to continue investing in the cloud.”

虽然奥兹承认对手在朝着他的世界观发展方面取得了成功，但他没有点名。"奥兹说："尽管我们早期有清晰的愿景，但他们在移动体验、硬件、软件和服务的无缝融合以及社交网络和以互联网为中心的无数新形式的社会互动方面的执行力已经超过了我们自己。
While Ozzie acknowledged rivals’ successes in moving toward his worldview, he didn’t name names. “Our early and clear vision notwithstanding, their execution has surpassed our own in mobile experiences, in the seamless fusion of hardware & software & services, and in social networking & myriad new forms of Internet-centric social interaction,” Ozzie said.

米勒说，奥兹没有必要特别提到苹果、谷歌或 Facebook 来向微软的高管们传达他的信息，他补充说：“他们知道他在说谁。”
Ozzie didn’t have to specifically name Apple, Google or Facebook to get his message across to Microsoft’s executives, said Miller, adding, “They know who he’s talking about.”

米勒说，奥兹的说明在他看来是 “末日式的”，但这种担忧是有道理的。"他在告诉微软，它需要向前看，否则你将来就不会拥有这个市场，"米勒说。“他试图让微软开始考虑有一天，Windows 的霸权将成为过去。”
Miller said that Ozzie’s note seemed “doomsday-ish” to him, but the concern is warranted. “He’s telling Microsoft that it needs to look forward or you’re not going to own the market in the future,” Miller said. “He’s trying to get Microsoft to start thinking about a day when the hegemony of Windows is a thing of the past.”

要做到这一点，奥兹说微软必须强调简单性而不是复杂性，他基本上说有25年历史的 Windows 及其周围的生态系统是后者的一个例子。
To do that, Ozzie said Microsoft must stress simplicity over complexity, and he essentially said that the 25-year-old Windows and its surrounding ecosystem was an example of the latter.

"复杂性会杀人，"Ozzie说。“复杂性吸走了用户、开发者和IT部门的生命。复杂性使产品难以规划、构建、测试和使用。复杂性带来了安全挑战。复杂性导致管理员的挫败感”。
“Complexity kills,” said Ozzie. “Complexity sucks the life out of users, developers and IT. Complexity makes products difficult to plan, build, test and use. Complexity introduces security challenges. Complexity causes administrator frustration.”

米勒同意。"他说："微软需要专注于简单性。
Miller agreed. “Microsoft needs to focus on simplicity,” he said.

但扭转微软的局面并不容易。它是一个巨大的公司，有相应的收入和惯性。
But turning around Microsoft won’t be easy. It’s a huge company, with revenues and inertia to match.

"米勒说："我的挫折感是，这是一艘大船，而这艘船的发展速度将使它变得困难。“你正在谈论与那些即使没有超过微软的创新，也会超过他们的公司竞争。”
“My frustration is that it’s a big ship, and the velocity with which the boat is going will make it hard,” Miller said. “You’re talking about competing with companies that are, if not out-innovating Microsoft, then out-pacing them.”

对于微软组织结构图上的高层人士来说，奥兹的话不太可能是一个惊喜。"这可能是雷-奥兹让人知道他的想法的最后机会，但我认为他在内部已经说了很长时间了。这与他在微软所做的一切相吻合，"米勒说。
It’s unlikely Ozzie’s words came as a surprise to people at the top of Microsoft’s organizational chart. “This may be the last chance for Ray Ozzie to make his thoughts known, but I think he’s said this internally for a long time. It fits with everything he’s been doing at Microsoft,” Miller said.

米勒希望奥兹的话能发挥作用。"我希望它能给微软带来一些反思，"米勒说。“我无法想象微软的某个人在离开这里时不会认为雷是对的。”
Miller was hopeful that Ozzie’s words would find fertile ground. “My hope is that it brings some soul-searching to Microsoft,” Miller said. “I can’t imagine someone at Microsoft not walking away from this without thinking that Ray’s right.”

但他也很现实。"从我在微软的时间来看，这完全取决于个别主管是否接受，"他总结说。
But he was also realistic. “From my time at Microsoft, it totally depends on the individual executive whether this is accepted,” he concluded.