The Basic probability Formula

1. Probability is the chance of something happening. A more academic definition for this would be likelihood of an event occuring. The word event has a specific meaning when talking about probabilities. Simply put an event is specific outcome or a combination of several outcomes. This outcomes can be pretty much anything getting heads when flipping a coin rolling a four on a six sided die or running a mile in under six minutes. Take flipping a coin for example, there isn’t only one single probability involved since there are two possible outcomes getting heads or getting tails. That means we have two possible events and we need to assign probabilities to each one when dealing with uncertain events. We are seldom satisfied by simply knowing whether an event is likely or unlikely. Ideally we want to be able to measure and compare probabilities in order to know which event is relatively more likely to do so.
2. We express probabilities numerically even though we can express probabilities as percentages or fractions conventionally. Absolute certainty of the event occuring of one. Absolute certainty of the event NOT occuring of zero.
3. A -> Event. P(A) -> probability.
   P(A) = preferred / all.
   Preferred -> favourable. All -> sample space.
4. Independent: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
5. Expected value: what we expect the outcome to be if we run an experiment many times to fully grasp the concept.
6. Experimental probabilities: whereas the ones we introduced earlier were theoretical or true probabilities generally when we are uncertain what the true probabilities are or how to compute them. We like conducting experiments the experimental probabilities we get are not always equal to the theoretical ones but are a good approximation.
7. Experimental Probabilities: P(A) = successful trials / all trials
8. Expected Values: the outcome we expect to occur when we run an experiment to clarify any confusion around the definition.
   E(A) = P(A) * n;
9. Numerical Outcomes: AP(A) + BP(B) + C*P©
10. We can use expected values to make predictions about the future based on past data.
11. Why do we use intervals when forcasting future events:
    — Because the expected value might have a low probability of occuring.
    Because we want to increase the likelihood of our predictions being accurate.
    Because the expected value could be unattainable.
12. Why do we use experimental probabilities?
    — Because they are easy to compute and serve as good predictiors for theoretical ones.
13. Expected value is used when trying to predict future events.
14. Probability frequency distribution is a collection of the probabilities for each possible outcome.
15. Complement of an event is everything the event is not as the name suggests the complement helps complete the rest of the sample space to calculate the probability of the complement of an event.
16. P < 1: not guaranteed to occur.