假设蓝x个,红y个,那么
p
1
=
x
x
+
y
,
p
2
=
y
x
+
y
p_{1}=\frac{x}{x+y},p_{2}=\frac{y}{x+y}
p1=x+yx,p2=x+yy
次数为
1
∗
p
1
+
2
∗
p
2
∗
p
1
+
.
.
.
+
n
∗
p
2
n
−
1
p
1
1*p_{1}+2*p_{2}*p_{1}+...+n*p_{2}^{n-1}p_{1}
1∗p1+2∗p2∗p1+...+n∗p2n−1p1n趋向于无穷大
E
=
p
1
[
1
+
2
∗
p
2
+
.
.
.
n
∗
p
2
n
−
1
]
E=p_{1}[1+2*p2+...n*p_{2}^{n-1}]
E=p1[1+2∗p2+...n∗p2n−1]
假设
[
1
+
2
∗
p
2
+
.
.
.
n
∗
p
2
n
−
1
]
=
S
[1+2*p2+...n*p_{2}^{n-1}]=S
[1+2∗p2+...n∗p2n−1]=S
那么
S
−
p
2
S
=
1
+
p
2
+
p
2
2
+
.
.
.
+
p
2
n
−
1
−
n
∗
p
2
n
=
1
−
p
2
n
1
−
p
2
−
n
∗
p
2
n
S-p_{2}S=1+p_{2}+p_{2}^{2}+...+p_{2}^{n-1}-n*p_{2}^{n}=\frac{1-p_{2}^{n}}{1-p_{2}}-n*p_{2}^{n}
S−p2S=1+p2+p22+...+p2n−1−n∗p2n=1−p21−p2n−n∗p2n
E
=
(
1
−
p
2
)
S
=
1
−
p
2
n
1
−
p
2
−
n
∗
p
2
n
E=(1-p_{2})S=\frac{1-p_{2}^{n}}{1-p_{2}}-n*p_{2}^{n}
E=(1−p2)S=1−p21−p2n−n∗p2n
当n趋向于无穷大时次数等于
1
−
0
1
−
p
2
=
1
p
1
\frac{1-0}{1-p_{2}}=\frac{1}{p_{1}}
1−p21−0=p11
下面用python代码进行验证
p1=0.4
p2=1-p1
E=0
cnt=10000
for i in range(1,cnt+1):
E+=i*p1*p2**(i-1)
print(E)
E=2.5000000000000004 结果相符