2022李宏毅机器学习hw1--COVID-19 Cases Prediction_machine learning hw1 covid-19 casesprediction-CSDN博客

本文链接：https://blog.csdn.net/Vectorln/article/details/126221368

# Numerical Operations
import math
import numpy as np

# Reading/Writing Data
import pandas as pd
import os
import csv

# For Progress Bar
from tqdm import tqdm

# Pytorch
import torch 
import torch.nn as nn
from torch.utils.data import Dataset, DataLoader, random_split

# For plotting learning curve
from torch.utils.tensorboard import SummaryWriter

3. 定义函数

def same_seed(seed): 
    '''Fixes random number generator seeds for reproducibility.'''
    torch.backends.cudnn.deterministic = True
    torch.backends.cudnn.benchmark = False
    np.random.seed(seed)
    torch.manual_seed(seed)
    if torch.cuda.is_available():
        torch.cuda.manual_seed_all(seed)


def train_valid_split(data_set, valid_ratio, seed):
    '''Split provided training data into training set and validation set'''
    valid_set_size = int(valid_ratio * len(data_set)) 
    train_set_size = len(data_set) - valid_set_size
    train_set, valid_set = random_split(data_set, [train_set_size, valid_set_size], generator=torch.Generator().manual_seed(seed))
    return np.array(train_set), np.array(valid_set)

def predict(test_loader, model, device):
    model.eval() # Set your model to evaluation mode.
    preds = []
    for x in tqdm(test_loader):
        x = x.to(device)                        
        with torch.no_grad():                   
            pred = model(x)                     
            preds.append(pred.detach().cpu())   
    preds = torch.cat(preds, dim=0).numpy()  
    return preds


def trainer(train_loader, valid_loader, model, config, device):

    criterion = nn.MSELoss(reduction='mean') # Define your loss function, do not modify this.

    # Define your optimization algorithm. 
    # TODO: Please check https://pytorch.org/docs/stable/optim.html to get more available algorithms.
    # TODO: L2 regularization (optimizer(weight decay...) or implement by your self).
    optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=config['learning_rate']) 
    


    writer = SummaryWriter() # Writer of tensoboard.

    if not os.path.isdir('./models'):
        os.mkdir('./models') # Create directory of saving models.

    n_epochs, best_loss, step, early_stop_count = config['n_epochs'], math.inf, 0, 0

    for epoch in range(n_epochs):
        model.train() # Set your model to train mode.
        loss_record = []

        # tqdm is a package to visualize your training progress.
        train_pbar = tqdm(train_loader, position=0, leave=True)

        for x, y in train_pbar:
            optimizer.zero_grad()               # Set gradient to zero.
            x, y = x.to(device), y.to(device)   # Move your data to device. 
            pred = model(x)             
            loss = criterion(pred, y)
            loss.backward()                     # Compute gradient(backpropagation).
            optimizer.step()                    # Update parameters.
            step += 1
            loss_record.append(loss.detach().item())
            
            # Display current epoch number and loss on tqdm progress bar.
            train_pbar.set_description(f'Epoch [{epoch+1}/{n_epochs}]')
            train_pbar.set_postfix({'loss': loss.detach().item()})

        mean_train_loss = sum(loss_record)/len(loss_record)
        writer.add_scalar('Loss/train', mean_train_loss, step)

        model.eval() # Set your model to evaluation mode.
        loss_record = []
        for x, y in valid_loader:
            x, y = x.to(device), y.to(device)
            with torch.no_grad():
                pred = model(x)
                loss = criterion(pred, y)

            loss_record.append(loss.item())
            
        mean_valid_loss = sum(loss_record)/len(loss_record)
        print(f'Epoch [{epoch+1}/{n_epochs}]: Train loss: {mean_train_loss:.4f}, Valid loss: {mean_valid_loss:.4f}')
        writer.add_scalar('Loss/valid', mean_valid_loss, step)

        if mean_valid_loss < best_loss:
            best_loss = mean_valid_loss
            torch.save(model.state_dict(), config['save_path']) # Save your best model
            print('Saving model with loss {:.3f}...'.format(best_loss))
            early_stop_count = 0
        else: 
            early_stop_count += 1

        if early_stop_count >= config['early_stop']:
            print('\nModel is not improving, so we halt the training session.')
            return

4. 定义类（Dataset以及DNN）

class COVID19Dataset(Dataset):
    '''
    x: Features.
    y: Targets, if none, do prediction.
    '''
    def __init__(self, x, y=None):
        if y is None:
            self.y = y
        else:
            self.y = torch.FloatTensor(y)
        self.x = torch.FloatTensor(x)

    def __getitem__(self, idx):
        if self.y is None:
            return self.x[idx]
        else:
            return self.x[idx], self.y[idx]

    def __len__(self):
        return len(self.x)


class My_Model(nn.Module):
    def __init__(self, input_dim):
        super(My_Model, self).__init__()
        # TODO: modify model's structure, be aware of dimensions. 
        self.layers = nn.Sequential(
            nn.Linear(input_dim, 64),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),
            
            nn.Linear(64, 32),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),
            
            nn.Linear(32, 16),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),

            nn.Linear(16, 8),
            nn.LeakyReLU(0.1),
            
            nn.Linear(8, 1),
        )

    def forward(self, x):
        x = self.layers(x)
        #x = nn.functional.dropout(x,p=0.01,training=self.training)
        x = x.squeeze(1) # (B, 1) -> (B)
        return x



from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')

5. 特征选择

由于在测试集中需预测第五天的tested_postive，因此我选用了前四天的tested_positive作为feat_idx以增强数据之间的相关性。值得注意的是，在处理csv文件时需去除第一列（id对问题的解决无实际性意义）。

def select_feat(train_data, valid_data, test_data, select_all=True):
    '''Selects useful features to perform regression'''
    y_train, y_valid = train_data[:,-1], valid_data[:,-1]
    raw_x_train, raw_x_valid, raw_x_test = train_data[:,:-1], valid_data[:,:-1], test_data

    if select_all:
        feat_idx = list(range(raw_x_train.shape[1]))
    else:
        feat_idx = [53, 69, 85, 101] # TODO: Select suitable feature columns.
        
    return raw_x_train[:,feat_idx], raw_x_valid[:,feat_idx], raw_x_test[:,feat_idx], y_train, y_valid

训练集covid.train.csv大致情况如下：

6. 定义超参数

device = 'cuda' if torch.cuda.is_available() else 'cpu'
config = {
    'seed': 5201314,      # Your seed number, you can pick your lucky number. :)
    'select_all': False,   # Whether to use all features.
    'valid_ratio': 0.2,   # validation_size = train_size * valid_ratio
    'n_epochs': 3000,     # Number of epochs.            
    'batch_size': 256, 
    'learning_rate': 1e-4,              
    'early_stop': 400,    # If model has not improved for this many consecutive epochs, stop training.     
    'save_path': './models/model.ckpt'  # Your model will be saved here.
}

7. 定义DataLoader

从文件中读取数据并设置培训、验证和测试集。

# Set seed for reproducibility
same_seed(config['seed'])


# train_data size: 2699 x 118 (id + 37 states + 16 features x 5 days) 
# test_data size: 1078 x 117 (without last day's positive rate)
train_data, test_data = pd.read_csv('./covid.train.csv').values, pd.read_csv('./covid.test.csv').values
train_data, valid_data = train_valid_split(train_data, config['valid_ratio'], config['seed'])

# Print out the data size.
print(f"""train_data size: {train_data.shape} 
valid_data size: {valid_data.shape} 
test_data size: {test_data.shape}""")

# Select features
x_train, x_valid, x_test, y_train, y_valid = select_feat(train_data, valid_data, test_data, config['select_all'])

# Print out the number of features.
print(f'number of features: {x_train.shape[1]}')

train_dataset, valid_dataset, test_dataset = COVID19Dataset(x_train, y_train), \
                                            COVID19Dataset(x_valid, y_valid), \
                                            COVID19Dataset(x_test)

# Pytorch data loader loads pytorch dataset into batches.
train_loader = DataLoader(train_dataset, batch_size=config['batch_size'], shuffle=True, pin_memory=True)
valid_loader = DataLoader(valid_dataset, batch_size=config['batch_size'], shuffle=True, pin_memory=True)
test_loader = DataLoader(test_dataset, batch_size=config['batch_size'], shuffle=False, pin_memory=True)

8. 训练与预测

# Start Training !!!
model = My_Model(input_dim=x_train.shape[1]).to(device) # put your model and data on the same computation device.
trainer(train_loader, valid_loader, model, config, device)


# Start Predicting !!!
def save_pred(preds, file):
    ''' Save predictions to specified file '''
    with open(file, 'w') as fp:
        writer = csv.writer(fp)
        writer.writerow(['id', 'tested_positive'])
        for i, p in enumerate(preds):
            writer.writerow([i, p])

model = My_Model(input_dim=x_train.shape[1]).to(device)
model.load_state_dict(torch.load(config['save_path']))
preds = predict(test_loader, model, device) 
save_pred(preds, 'pred.csv')

五. 可视化分析

在深度学习框架中，有很多可视化的工具，其中，Tensorboard是一个工具，可以让您可视化训练进度。运行该配件时，需利用以下指令：

%reload_ext tensorboard
%tensorboard --logdir=./runs/

训练过程Loss在Train和Valid的下降过程如下：

此外，可以在board上滑动鼠标进行数值的更进一步分析：

六. 优缺点分析与改进建议

优点：

1. 本文从相关性出发针对性地选取了前四天的tested_positive，同时利用优化后的全连接层完成了回归预测。

2. 对优化器进行了改进，利用Adam使Loss下降更加平稳，同时稍提高learning rate以增加Loss的收敛速度

缺点：

1. 由于能力受限，无法对整个数据集中的所有指标进行相关性分析

2. learning rate不能随着学习过程的变化进行动态更替，导致训练后期并不能收敛到一个较低的值，而是进行反复地上下波动

3. 未考虑是否存在过拟合情况

改进建议：

1. 查阅文献，可采用余弦退火的技巧对learning rate进行动态更新

2. 可利用sklearn中的特征选择方法对Feature Selection进行更改，同时可对各个指标进行归一化

3. 在DNN模型定义中加入L2正则化，Dropout等方法防止模型过拟合

2022李宏毅机器学习hw1--COVID-19 Cases Prediction

目录

一. 开题说明：

本人在完成HW1的过程中，发现存在以下困难：

1. 信息获取相对麻烦，不易于寻找相关资料

2. 可提供的有用信息比较零散，导致不能马上检索出关键

3. 部分高质量代码因博主个人收取费用，致使开源学习受限

鉴于以上，在此进行开源分享，希望能更好地帮助大家同时加深自己的印象。以下是提交结果，其中得分分别来自于Private Score和Public Score（已过Strong Baseline）

二. 梗概：

三. 问题背景：

四. 模型建立：

1. 数据下载

2. 导入必要的包