Software Estimation

Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, schedule, budgets, investment analyses, pricing processes and bidding rounds.

Typically, effort estimates are over-optimisticand there is a strong over-confidence in their accuracy. The mean effortoverrun seems to be about 30% and not decreasing over time.

1. Software estimation categories

There are many ways of categorizing estimation approaches, see for example.^[9][10] The top level categories are the following:

• Expert estimation: The quantification step, i.e., the step where the estimate is produced based on judgmental processes.
• Formal estimation model: The quantification step is based on mechanical processes, e.g., the use of a formula derived from historical data.
• Combination-based estimation: The quantification step is based on a judgmental or mechanical combination of estimates from different sources.

 Expert estimate is the dominant estimate method in the industry. 

 

2. Estimate practices (Expert estimate)

2.1 Estimate check list

• Coding
• Unit test
• Integration test
• Build script
• Installation
• Document
• Buffer

2.2 Use Historical data

Historical project execution data is very valuable for estimation, we often make estimate using below historical information:

• Line of code (total and per-task)
• Dev effort (total and per-task)
• Common issues and risks
• Common bugs raised.

2.3 PERT estimate (三点估算)

(Pessimistic estimate + 4 * Most likely estimate + Optimistic estimate) / 6

3. Limitations

Limitations to the accuracy of software estimate include:

• How well the requirement is described.
• Domain knowledge related to the task being estimated.
• Technologies used in development.
• Development infrastructure and environment. E.g. IDEs, test servers, version control tools, project management tools
• Pressure from management, schedule, cost, etc.
• Development process

软件估算是手段，不是承诺。

软件估算是范围，不是精确值。

References

Jørgensen, M.. "A Review of Studies on Expert Estimation of Software Development Effort"

Wikipedia

PMBOK