The next revolution -- 转帖

原帖: http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/120036798.html

The next revolution

 

July 4, 2009

 

 

 

Another information revolution is unfolding. Possibly in two to three years how we access and use information will change fundamentally, which would affect the IT industry dramatically as well as the broad economy. PC still dominates information storage and processing at present. The new world is likely to shift data processing and storage to the net. New mobile technologies will allow users to remain online anytime and anywhere. All knowledge will become available instantaneously. There will be no distinctions in processing voice, video or text data. The advances in mobile phone technology are making this always-on world possible.

 

 

 

The speculation about arrival of this new world has been around for a long time. It is one of the competing visions on the future. In my recent visit to Taiwan I visited several major IT companies and realized how soon this world was coming and how it was impacting Taiwan’s IT businesses. One of the major implications is that PC will lose its importance in the IT world. It has far reaching consequences for East Asian economies that have invested heavily in PC related manufacturing activities.

 

 

 

Taiwan’s economy has benefited heavily from three factors in the past two decades: (1) China’s opening made cheap labor available to its manufacturers, (2) outsourcing trend due to the rise of big-box retailers in the US created a big market for its manufacturers, and (3) the rapid growth of the PC industry gave its tech companies room to grow fast. Taiwan’s strength in taking advantage of the three was its factory management expertise and its extensive connections in China and the US. In particular, Taiwan has assumed an important role in the PC supply chain. From components, assembly and even branding Taiwan’s PC industry has risen to global prominence. It is now a sun-setting industry.

 

 

 

In the new paradigm the most important function for a consumer device is connectivity and interactivity. It makes PC just one of the numerous existing and future devices. PC has two distinct disadvantages in competing against other products. First, Microsoft and Intel charge high prices for their proprietary products essential to a PC. The so-called WinTel standard served to increase competition in downstream industries. It led to declining PC prices and rising sales. However, WinTel’s monopoly charges limit how far PC prices. Also, as a PC was designed to be a self-containing device, it is loaded with expensive functions that are not valuable in a web-based world. In summary, a PC is no longer the best value for money in a web-based world.

 

 

 

The PC industry is already suffering from the market evolution. The DRAM industry is experiencing terrible hemorrhaging. When DRAM demand was strong, so many DRAM factories were set up, especially in East Asia. It appears that most won’t survive. One industry veteran in Taiwan told me that only three would survive. The notebook industry that has seen rapid growth in the past decade seems destined for stagnation or even declining. In a stagnant industry profit margin shrinks to the thinnest possible level.

 

 

 

Taiwan is suffering a terrible recession now. Its GDP shrank by over 10% in the first quarter from one year ago. The trade collapse due to the global economic collapse is the main reason. The structural changes like in the PC industry would hold Taiwan’s economy back even when the global economy recovers. In addition, the OEM trend has saturated. It will pressure profit margins on most Taiwanese factories in Mainland China. As far as I can tell, only a few Taiwanese businesses in the smartphone industry are prospering. Even there, lack of key intellectual properties relating to 3G and 4G standards could limit their prospects.

 

 

 

Taiwan’s economy is likely to stagnate for a long time to come. The structural problems will hold back its exports. The profitability of its export factories in the mainland will shrink. Even though some Taiwanese businesses are succeeding in China’s domestic demand, they are too small to lift Taiwan’s economy alone. Taiwan’s household wealth level is still high, which could support its consumption for the foreseeable future. But this is a stagnation story. Taiwan hasn’t really grown much in the past decade. Its living standard is stuck around $15 thousand per capita. It seems that Taiwan’s living standard will remain so for the next decade.

 

 

 

The same forces will also limit China’s rebound in exports. Most Taiwanese factories are in the Mainland. In addition, numerous local businesses are either suppliers to Taiwanese businesses or competing against them for export markets. Half of China’s exports are IT related products. As China is a factory for the world, what’s at stake is the relative value of hardware vs. software or service. It seems that the importance of hardware in the new world is declining. Many products that are still considered hi-tech are commoditized and losing growth. I am deeply concerned that China’s policies are still geared towards promoting such industries. Some local governments are throwing billions of dollars at attracting such commodity industries. The money may be bringing in sunset industries with few benefits for economic development.

 

 

 

Network contractors like China’s Huawai and ZTE are winners in this revolution. Mobile connectivity is the most important factor in contributing to the rise of this new world. The demand for networking equipment will be strong in the next few years. Network operators need to spend heavily to upgrade their networks to compete for consumers.

 

 

 

Even software companies may not win in this world. As the connectivity is anytime, anywhere and network is the computer, consumers can rent software on the net for temporary use and won’t have to buy it for installation on a personal or company computer. This will increase the competition among software producers as it decreases their market power from the lock-in effect. When software is no longer a fixed cost, users have more incentive to switch. Software production has a high profit margin so far precisely for this reason. In the emerging new world software producers may see their profit margins declining to the average among all industries.

 

 

 

Microsoft and Oracle, for example, command massive market capitalization in stock market. But they are hardly the most innovative or best quality companies. Their consumers usually complain about their products. Still they have been earning high profit margins. The reason is that their consumers have sunk huge fixed costs into their products and have low incentives to switch. The new world puts their business model into doubt. I suspect that their market capitalization will decline dramatically over the next five years.

 

 

 

In theory the biggest winners are the network providers like mobile phone operators. They have the best chance to control users. But, they will also have a hard time. The differences among voice, video and text services will vanish. Service providers maximize their profit margins through price discrimination against high value customers. For example, even though Chinese mobile phone operators have vast numbers of customers, a relatively small number of customers, mainly those that use their services for business purpose, contribute to most of their profits. The merging of voice, video and text will make such discrimination impossible. The service providers can only collect a simple rental fee from their customers.

 

 

 

The content providers should be big winners in the net world with a bigger market and less marketing cost. But they are already losing big and could lose more in the always-on world. The problem is that the existing content providers don’t know have to sell their products. Technology companies like Google have taken advantage of that and collect advertizing dollars by locating the content for its users through their search service. In the end, as content providers are starved of money, they will exit the business. The destruction of the content providers is already unfolding. Newspaper companies are struggling around the world. The always-on world will accelerate the process. Newspaper production will probably vanish in its current form.

 

 

 

Magazines and books could also vanish in their paper forms in the foreseeable future. Electronic paper technologies are sufficiently developed that electronic paper works as well as printed paper. They can’t change to electronic publishing easily. Books and magazines exist because the fixed cost for printing is high. They generate economies of scale in disseminating information. In the electronic paper information can be transmitted at zero cost. The justification for information aggregation with large fixed costs isn’t there. In the future people won’t get their information from fixed cost operators like newspapers, magazines and book publishers.

 

 

 

Of course, the above story implies that the demand for paper will collapse in the future. Paper and pulp production requires massive fixed costs. The existing capacity is probably more than enough for the foreseeable future. It would be hard to justify any new investment in this business.

 

 

 

One big positive of the always-on world is that it makes all the knowledge in the world available to everyone anytime. Not everyone will know how to use this advantage. Enough people will. The world will change for that. For example, education can be carried out outside of schools. Education is the biggest government monopoly allover the world. It works due to the economies of scale from the government imposing uniform standards that offset the inherent inefficiency from government control.

 

 

 

Healthcare is another big business to be affected by the revolution. Healthcare accounts for over one tenth of GDP. Its impact is hard to quantify. Its size and the difficulties in quantifying its effectiveness reflect information asymmetry between doctors and patients. Developed countries protect patients by giving them legal rights for ex-post legal actions against healthcare providers. That in turn causes the healthcare providers to overkill in treatment to avoid bad legal consequences. The always-on world will dramatically decrease the information asymmetry between patients and doctors. This allows people to obtain information instantaneously to verify healthcare professionals’ opinions and prescriptions. It improves the market efficiency in two ways. Patients have less need to sue doctors ex post. It decreases healthcare insurance cost and the amount of care.

 

 

 

Hence, it reduces the need for doctors to overprescribe medicine or procedures

 

 

 

This flattening of the knowledge world has profound implications for how societies will be organized and governed. Human societies are governed by elite who control information and are capable of processing it. Inflation collection, processing, and dissemination are always costly. The existence of elite reflects the need for economies of scale in handling information, which gives advantages and privileges to those who happen to handle information. This advantage often turns hereditary and leads to the formation of a permanent ruling class. The declining cost of obtaining information has already led to dramatic social changes in the past century. The final collapse of information cost to zero will accelerate the trend.

 

 

 

How the information revolution is destroying businesses is a classic example of Schumpeterian creative destruction. The new technology renders a significant share of the economy obsolete. Even though the technology improves efficiency overall, the unemployment that results from business destruction could keep the economy weak for an extended period of time. However, it would be wrong for governments to stop the technology. Overtime market will find alternative uses for the unemployed workers. For owners of the obsolete businesses this is an unmitigated disaster. Their capital stock would have only scrap value.

 

 

 

As old businesses are destroyed, new ones will emerge. The internet isn’t just a tool. It has become a world of its own. When human beings have enough food and shelter, all other activities are entertainment or earning money for buying entertainment. The cheapest entertainment is for people to amuse each other. This may be happening. YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, etc., are mainly platforms for people to entertain each other. One can work hard to earn enough money for buying a Mercedes car. Driving it would give one certain satisfaction. Or one could spend time on the net getting entertained for free. Hence, there is no need to work hard anymore. I suspect that in the always-on world internet will decrease rather than increase productivity in traditional sense. But, people may get more satisfaction out of it.

 

下一场技术革命

本文见《财经》杂志 2009年第14期 出版日期2009年07月06日

 

谢国忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/  

在“永远在线”的世界，互联网将减少而不是增加传统意义上的生产力。但是，大家可能都能从中得到满足

 

　　又一场信息革命正在展开。也许在两到三年内，我们获得和使用信息的方式将发生根本改变，这将给IT行业乃至广义的经济带来巨大影响。目前，个人电脑仍然占信息存储和处理的主导地位，而在“新世界”里，数据处理和存储可能都会被整合到网络上。新的移动技术将允许用户无论何时何地“永远在线”，所有的知识都可于瞬间获得。移动电话技术的发展，正在使这个“永远在线”的世界成为可能。

“永远在线”

　　关于上面描述的那个新世界即将到来的猜测，已经存在了很长一段时间。这只是对未来的种种猜想中的一种。在最近一次访问台湾时，我参观了几个主要的IT公司，认识到那个描述中的世界正在以怎样的高速转变为现实，也意识到了这种变化又是怎样影响到了台湾的IT企业。其中，最主要的影响是，个人电脑将失去其在IT领域的重要地位。由于在与个人电脑相关的制造行业上投放了重资，因此，这一变革对东亚经济体有着深远的影响。

　　过去20年，台湾经济发展在很大程度上得益于三个因素：（1）中国大陆的对外开放政策给制造商提供了廉价的劳动力；（2）由于美国大型零售商的崛起，使制造业外包逐渐成为趋势，并由此形成了一个巨大的市场，以及（3）迅速崛起的个人电脑产业，为高科技公司提供了快速成长的空间。

　　台湾之所以能够充分受益于以上条件，除了具备出色的工厂管理经验，还因其同中国大陆及美国有着紧密的联系。特别是，台湾已经成为中国大陆个人电脑供应链中重要的一环。无论是组件、组装，还是品牌，台湾个人电脑产业已处于全球领先地位。这个行业在台湾已经属于夕阳产业了。

　　在新的模式中，消费电子产品最重要的功能就是连接与互动。不管是现在还是未来，电脑只是众多此类设备之一。与其他产品相比，电脑有两大缺陷。首先，微软和英特尔对于个人电脑的灵魂部分——也是其专利产品——要价颇高。所谓的“Wintel标准”，原本旨在增加下游产业的竞争程度，理应导致个人电脑价格下降，销量增加。但是，Wintel联盟垄断定价限制了个人电脑的价格。此外，个人电脑原本被设计为一个“自我承载装置”，它所装载的那些昂贵的功能，在基于网络的世界里并无多大价值。总之，在网遍世界的今天，个人电脑已不再显得那么物有所值了。

　　个人电脑产业已经经历过了市场的演变。动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）产业正在经历可怕的大出血。当DRAM芯片市场需求强劲的时候，许多工厂纷纷上马，在东亚更是如此。现在看来，其中大多数无法生存。一位业界资深人士告诉我，在台湾，只有三个企业能够存活下去。在过去十年里，笔记本电脑产业取得了快速的增长，这也似乎注定了这一行业将停滞发展甚至萎缩，而边际利润也将缩小到最微薄的水平。

　　台湾正经历着一场痛苦的经济衰退。其一季度本地生产总值减少了10％以上。主要原因就是由于全球经济衰退引起的贸易崩溃。正如个人电脑产业正在经历结构性转变，台湾岛内也面临着结构性调整。在全球经济开始复苏的时候，这一结构调整拖缓了台湾复苏的脚步。此外，原始设备制造商（OEM）趋于饱和，这将极大地压缩大多数在中国大陆设厂的台湾厂商的利润率。据我所知，智能手机制造行业中，只有有限几个台资厂商能够盈利。由于缺乏与3G和4G标准有关的知识产权，连这些厂商的利润前景也不那么光明。

　　台湾经济很可能会停滞很长一段时间。结构性问题将阻碍其出口。在内地设厂的出口厂商的利润将进一步缩小。尽管有些台商由于中国大陆的旺盛需求而大获成功，但是，这些厂商规模还是太小，不能单独支撑台湾经济。台湾的家庭财富水平仍然很高，在可以预见的未来，还能够维持原来的消费水平。但是，在过去的十年里，台湾并没有取得真正的发展。一直维持着人均1.5万美元的生活水平。看来，在下一个十年中，台湾的生活水平很难有太大改变。

　　其他一些因素也将限制中国大陆的出口反弹。大多数台资工厂设在中国大陆。许多当地企业不是这些台资工厂的供应商，就是和他们争夺出口市场的竞争对手。中国大陆一半左右的出口是与IT相关的产品。由于中国大陆是“世界的工厂”，其生产的硬件或者是软件，以及所提供的服务具有的相对价值，对于中国大陆来说至为重要。现在看来，硬件的重要性正在逐步下降。许多仍然被标榜为“高科技”的产品正在商品化，并且不再增长。目前，中国大陆的政策仍在大力促进这些行业的发展，一些地方政府已经为此一掷数十亿美元。从经济发展的角度来说，这笔钱可以带给这些夕阳产业的好处十分有限。

胜者为王

　　华为和中兴通讯等网络承建商，可以说是这次革命中的胜者。移动连接是促成“新世界”崛起的最重要的因素。在未来的几年中，对网络设备的需求将十分强劲。网络运营商需要花费巨资升级其网络，才能在争取消费者的竞争中脱颖而出。

　　在这个“新世界”里，软件公司可能不会有太大的赚头。这是因为人们随时随地都可以通过计算机与网络加以连接，消费者大可在线临时租用软件，而不需要去购买软件再将其安装在固定的个人或公司电脑中。这将大大提高软件生产商之间的竞争，因为它减少了软件厂商通过“锁定效应”获得的市场影响力。当软件费用不再成为固定成本，用户就有了更多的动力在各种软件中挑来挑去。正是由于这一原因，迄今为止，软件生产仍具有较高的利润率。但是，在正在崛起的“新世界”里，软件生产商可能会发现，他们的利润下降到了所有行业的平均水平。

　　举个例子。微软和甲骨文，在股票市场引导着大规模资本运作。但是，他们根本不是最具创新性或最优质的公司。消费者通常对他们的产品抱怨多多。尽管如此，他们还是赚取到了高额利润。原因在于，消费者在这些公司生产的产品上，投入了巨大的固定成本，并且几乎没有任何要更换产品的想法。不过，在“新世界”里，消费者可能会对这些公司的商业模式产生质疑。我猜想，在未来五年中，这些公司的市值将会大幅下降。

　　从理论上来说，最大的赢家应该是网络供应商，如移动电话运营商。他们有最好的机会来控制用户。但是，他们以后的日子也不太好过。以前，服务供应商通过价格歧视，筛选高价值客户，以最大限度地保证利润。例如，尽管中国移动电话运营商拥有大量客户，但只有那部分数量相对较少的商务客户，为其创造了大部分利润。但是，当语音、视频和文字等服务融为一体后，通过价格歧视来筛选优质客户就不再可能。服务供应商能得到的，仅仅是从客户那里收到的网络租赁费罢了。

　　按理说，内容提供商也应该成为网络世界的大赢家，因为他们拥有更大的市场，以及相对较少的销售成本。但在这个“永远在线”的世界里，他们已经损失了很多，而且很可能会失去更多。关键的问题是，这些内容提供商并不知道，他们需要为自己的产品做营销。技术公司，如谷歌，正是利用了这一点。他们通过在搜索服务中为其客户提供“内容定位”而获得大笔广告收入。事实上，内容提供商已经开始溃败。世界各地的报业公司都在苦苦挣扎。

　　在可预见的将来，纸质的杂志和书籍也会消失。电子报的技术已经非常发达了，完全能够跟纸质报纸的效果相媲美。但纸制的杂志和书籍转变为电子出版物可不那么容易。书籍和杂志之所以存在，是因为固定的印刷成本是很高的。它们能够在信息传播时产生规模经济。而电子报几乎可以达到零成本信息传输。至于 “信息集中必然会产生巨大固定成本”的说词根本就站不住脚。将来，人们不再需要从报纸、杂志和图书出版商那些有固定成本的商家那里获得信息了。

　　当然，上面所说的一切都在意味着，未来对于纸质文件的需求终会一朝崩溃。这样看来，在这个领域，任何投资都不是那么明智。

废旧立新

　　另一个受到这场革命影响的是医疗保健行业。每年，医疗产生的费用超过国内生产总值的十分之一。其影响很难评估。其规模和评估其效用的困难，反映了医生和病人之间的信息不对称。发达国家授予患者合法权利，可以对医疗保健机构的治疗提出事后起诉，由此来保护患者权益。不过，这一做法反过来又导致医疗机构过度治疗，为的是避免不良的法律后果。

　　“永远在线”的世界将大大降低病人和医生间的信息不对称，使得患者能够立刻了解专业医护人员的治疗意见及处方。这也使得市场双方都变得更有效率。患者不再需要对医生此前的行为提出起诉，同时减少了医保费用和治疗总量。

　　知识世界平面化的趋势，深刻影响着社会的组织和管理模式。人类社会是由掌控信息、并有能力处理这些信息的精英阶层控制的。收集、放大信息，处理和传播信息都需要支付高昂的成本。精英的存在反映了信息处理也需要有规模经济，这给了那些恰巧掌握这些信息的人以优势和特权。这种优势往往会世袭，并导致形成永久的统治阶级。过去的一个世纪里，获取信息所需成本的下降，已经导致社会剧烈变化。最终信息成本接近于零，将加速这个趋势的到来。

　　“熊彼特创造性毁灭”（Schumpeterian creative destruction）就是一个典型的例子，说明信息革命是怎样摧毁企业的。新技术总是在产业落伍的时候显示出重要作用。虽然整体来讲技术提高了效率，但因为产业失败造成的失业，可能使经济疲软持续较长一段时间。然而，让各国政府停止采用新技术将是错误的。失业工人可以靠赚取加班费找到新生计。对那些从事过时产业的企业主来说，新技术将是十足的灾难。因为他们的股本可能只值废品价了。

　　旧的企业被摧毁，新的问题将会出现。互联网不仅是一种工具，它已形成了自己的世界。当人有足够的食物和舒适的住所的时候，所有其他活动都变成了娱乐活动，或赚取金钱以购买娱乐活动。最便宜的娱乐活动就是大家互相取乐。这很有可能发生。YouTube、Twitter、Facebook等，都是供人们自娱自乐或娱乐他人的平台。我们可以努力工作，赚取足够的钱购买奔驰车。驾驶它将给人以特定的满足感。或者，我们可以花时间在网络上免费找乐子。因此，也许真没有必要努力工作了。我怀疑，在“永远在线”的世界，互联网将减少而不是增加传统意义上生产力。但是，大家可能都能从中得到满足。■谢国忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/  

　　作者为《财经》杂志特约经济学家、玫瑰石顾问公司董事