贝叶斯树与贝叶斯网络的关系_贝叶斯网络与圣彼得堡

贝叶斯树与贝叶斯网络的关系

A couple of weeks ago we walked through how petersburg represents complex decisions (check it out here).

几周前，我们介绍了彼得斯堡如何代表复杂的决策（请在此处查看 ）。

Some of you may have recognized a familiar concept in that description: Bayesian networks (or bayesnet).  Just like petersburg’s structure, a Bayesian network is at it’s core a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG).  So let’s first discuss what a Bayesian Network is.

你们中的某些人可能已经在该描述中认识到一个熟悉的概念：贝叶斯网络（或Bayesnet）。 就像彼得斯堡的结构一样，贝叶斯网络的核心是有向无环图（DAG）。 因此，让我们首先讨论什么是贝叶斯网络。

Bayesian Networks

贝叶斯网络

A Bayesian network is a graph representation of conditional dependencies between a set of random variables.  The nodes of the DAG are Bayesian random variables, generally an observed quantity or a latent variable.  The connections between these random variable nodes represent the conditional dependencies between the nodes.  Using the example from wikipedia:

贝叶斯网络是一组随机变量之间的条件依存关系的图形表示。 DAG的节点是贝叶斯随机变量，通常是观测量或潜变量。 这些随机变量节点之间的连接表示节点之间的条件依赖性。 使用维基百科的示例：

 

In this example, the sprinkler is influenced by whether or not it is raining, and the wetness of the grass is influenced by both the sprinkler and rain. The core form of analysis for the Bayesian network here is the joint probability function, which is a multivariate expression of a probability density function (PDF), cumulative density function (CDF) or probability mass function (PMF).  For this simple example, that would look like:

在该示例中，洒水装置受到是否下雨的影响，而草的湿润度受到洒水装置和雨水的影响。 贝叶斯网络分析的核心形式是联合概率函数，它是概率密度函数（PDF），累积密度函数（CDF）或概率质量函数（PMF）的多元表达。 对于这个简单的例子，它看起来像：

This equation shows us the relationship outlined by the Bayesian network, notably that the probability of grass being wet is influenced by the sprinkler and rain (first term), the probability of the sprinkler being on is influenced by the rain (second term) and the probability of rain is independent of the other two (final term).

该方程式向我们展示了贝叶斯网络概述的关系，特别是草被湿的概率受喷头和雨水（第一项）的影响，喷头开启的概率受雨水（第二项）的影响。下雨的概率与其他两个（最终条件）无关。

Petersburg

彼得斯堡

Bayesian networks can be extremely useful for inference and learning tasks, while petersburg is focused on a narrower problem space: decisions under uncertainty.  This means that petersburg’s graphs must have the core concept of decision theory baked in: cost.  Decision theory problems are focused around the idea of finding the best choice for an agent under uncertainty (which is well represented by Bayesian networks), payoffs, and costs (which are not as well represented).

贝叶斯网络对于推理和学习任务非常有用，而彼得斯堡则专注于狭窄的问题空间：不确定性下的决策。 这意味着彼得斯堡的图必须具有决策理论的核心概念：成本。 决策理论问题集中于在不确定性（贝叶斯网络很好地表示），收益和成本（没有很好地表示）下为代理商寻找最佳选择的想法。

So we think of petersburg as a specialized subset of Bayesian networks.  They differ by:

因此，我们将彼得斯堡视为贝叶斯网络的专门子集。 它们的区别在于：

1. All edges in a petersburg have a cost.
2. All nodes in a petersburg have a payoff.
3. All graphs in petersburg have a single explicit starting node (a node with no input edges).

1. 圣彼得堡的所有边缘都有成本。
2. 圣彼得堡的所有节点都有收益。
3. 彼得斯堡的所有图都有一个单独的显式起始节点（无输入边的节点）。

In this way, petersburg’s graphs inherit the analytical techniques applicable to Bayesian networks, which is convenient.  Reflecting on the sprinkler example, we can re-structure it as a decision problem: should I turn on the sprinkler today? We have the same options available, we can turn on the sprinkler or not, and it could rain or not.  But we introduce costs and payoffs.  There is a cost to turn on the sprinklers themselves (N), and a cost of the grass not getting watered at all and dying (M).  For simplicity, we will set all edge weights to 1, so every choice edge is equally likely to be taken (50% chance of rain).  The petersburg graph would look like:

这样，彼得斯堡的图继承了适用于贝叶斯网络的分析技术，这很方便。 考虑到洒水器的例子，我们可以将其重新构造为决策问题：我今天应该打开洒水器吗？ 我们有相同的可用选项，我们可以打开或不打开洒水装置，也可以下雨或不下雨。 但是我们介绍了成本和收益。 自行打开洒水器需要付出一定的代价（N），而根本不给草坪浇水却要死的代价（M）。 为简单起见，我们将所有边的权重都设置为1，因此每个选择边的可能性均相同（下雨的机会为50％）。 彼得斯堡图看起来像：

With this structure, given a chance of rain and cost figures, we can evaluate the decision of whether or not to turn on the sprinklers according to different strategies (minimizing risk of ruin, maximizing chance of windfall, or maximizing expected outcome).  If the chance of rain is unknown, this structure can be used to find the chance of rain at which turning on the sprinkler becomes profitable, or given only the chance of rain and the cost of watering, the cost of grass dying at which watering becomes profitable can be found.

在这种结构下，考虑到下雨的几率和成本，我们可以根据不同的策略（使破坏的风险最小，意外收获的机会最大化或预期的结果最大化）来评估是否开启洒水装置的决定。 如果下雨的可能性未知，则可以使用此结构来查找打开洒水喷头有利可图的下雨机会，或者仅考虑下雨的机会和浇水的成本，即浇水变成草的死亡成本有利可图。

Conclusion

结论

翻译自: https://www.pybloggers.com/2016/01/bayesian-networks-vs-petersburg/

贝叶斯树与贝叶斯网络的关系