马斯克发布会视_马斯克会成为我们的救星还是驱逐舰？

马斯克发布会视

by Jedidiah Yueh

吉迪(Jedidiah Yueh)

马斯克会成为我们的救星还是驱逐舰？ (Will Elon Musk be our savior or our destroyer?)

The world has finally met its first mad scientist: Elon Musk.

世界终于遇到了第一位疯狂的科学家：埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)。

Elon Musk is a Dickensian figure. He’s tall and imposing, but with an oddly boyish face. His expressions bear faint traces of scars from his past, of the suffering he endured growing up in the chauvinistic, violent world of South Africa. He seems to balance that well, however, with Amber Heard or some other actress on his arm.

伊隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)是狄更斯式的人物。 他个子高大气势，但有着一张男孩子般的面Kong。 他的表情淡淡地留下了他过去的伤痕，以及他在沙文主义，暴力的南非世界中长大的痛苦。 不过，他似乎可以和Amber Heard或其他女演员相处得很好。

Musk’s ambition and reach know no bounds. He makes Google’s famous moonshots look unambitious by literally aiming for Mars.

马斯克的雄心壮志和影响力无止境。 实际上，他瞄准了火星，从而使Google著名的月球看上去毫不含糊。

In his latest announcement, Musk unveiled plans to send you anywhere in the world in 30 minutes for the price of an economy ticket. “If we are building this thing to go to the Moon and Mars,” he said, “then why not go to other places on Earth as well?”

在他的最新公告中 ，马斯克公布了计划，以经济舱机票的价格在30分钟内将您送至世界任何地方。 他说：“如果我们要建造的东西要去月球和火星，那为什么不也去地球上的其他地方呢？”

In addition to rockets (SpaceX), his current and prior companies produce electric cars (Tesla), solar tiles (SolarCity), and electronic payments (PayPal). He’s now boring tunnels to battle traffic (the Boring Company), and investing in technology to turn us into cyborgs (Neuralink). All this while combating the specter of AI gone wild (OpenAI).

除了火箭(SpaceX)，他目前和以前的公司还生产电动汽车(Tesla)，太阳能砖(SolarCity)和电子支付(PayPal)。 他现在在无聊的隧道中与交通争斗(无聊的公司)，并在技术方面进行投资以将我们变成机器人(Neuralink)。 在对抗AI的幽灵的同时，所有这一切都变得疯狂了(OpenAI)。

If there’s anyone who embodies the spirit of “you can do anything if you put your mind to it,” it’s Elon Musk.

如果有人能体现“只要您下定决心就可以做任何事情”的精神，那就是埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)。

大小事项 (Size Matters)

When it comes to vision, size matters. No one wields a bigger vision than Elon Musk.

当涉及视觉时，尺寸至关重要。 没有人比埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)具有更大的视野。

We put a man on the moon in 1969, at the height of the Cold War. After the decline of the Soviet Union, NASA fell from the pinnacle of the world’s stage into an archaic, darkened technology basement.

我们在1969年冷战最激烈的时候将一个人登上月球。 苏联解体后，美国国家航空航天局(NASA)从世界舞台的顶峰坠落到了一个古老的，黑暗的技术地下室。

It took until Elon Musk’s arrival for rocket science to reemerge on the world stage. Musk’s vision at SpaceX is “to enable people to live on other planets,” a plan B for planet earth.

直到埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)到达，火箭科学才重新出现在世界舞台上。 马斯克在SpaceX的愿景是“使人们能够生活在其他星球上”，这是地球计划B。

Instead of sending people to the moon, Musk wants to colonize Mars.

马斯克没有把人们送上月球，而是想在火星上殖民。

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There are limits to vision. Myopia is a risk, but hyperopia (farsightedness) is an equal risk. If you can’t execute on the vision, it’s not vision. It’s vain ambition.

视野有限。 近视是一种风险，但远视(远见)是同等风险。 如果您不能执行愿景，那不是愿景。 这是徒劳的野心。

In 2008, Elon Musk was a single failed rocket launch away from catastrophically imploding. Tesla missed its shipment date (again) and was quickly hemorrhaging its remaining cash. The first three rockets launched by SpaceX had failed, one literally exploding, and the company could afford only one more attempt.

在2008年，埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)是一次失败的火箭发射，没有遭受灾难性的内爆。 特斯拉(再次)错过了发货日期，并Swift浪费了剩余的现金。 SpaceX发射的前三枚火箭失败了，实际上发生了爆炸，该公司只能再尝试一次。

Despite suffering three consecutive strikes, Musk pledged in a company announcement, “I will never give up and I mean never.”

尽管遭受了连续三次罢工，马斯克在公司公告中承诺：“我永远不会放弃，我永远不会。”

He had invested all his returns from Zip2 and PayPal, had convinced his family and friends to invest their savings, and was on the brink of bankruptcy.

他已经将自己从Zip2和PayPal上获得的全部收益投资了起来，说服了他的家人和朋友们将他们的积蓄投资起来，并且濒临破产。

If that fourth rocket had failed to launch, Elon Musk may never have recovered.

如果第四枚火箭未能发射，埃隆·马斯克可能永远也不会康复。

But it succeeded, and after some serious financial maneuvering, Musk convinced Tesla’s investors to extend another round of financing as well.

但是它成功了，经过一番认真的财务调整之后，马斯克说服特斯拉的投资者也延长了另一轮融资。

Elon Musk walked the bare knife’s edge of success and failure, and lived to tell the tale. But what if the knife cut the other way? What if it cuts the other way for humankind?

埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)用光秃秃的刀走到成功和失败的边缘，活着讲述这个故事。 但是，如果刀子以其他方式切割怎么办？ 如果它为人类开辟了另一条路呢？

意外的极地后果 (Unintended Polar Consequences)

If I were crafting Elon Musk’s personal vision and mission, it would say, “Humankind is out of control. My mission is to save humankind from itself.”

如果我正在制定埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的个人愿景和使命，它会说：“人类已失控。 我的任务是拯救人类。”

The challenge with mad scientists is that they inevitably forge knives that cut both ways.

疯狂的科学家所面临的挑战是，他们不可避免地会伪造双向切割的刀具。

Musk founded OpenAI to combat the existential threat to humankind posed by AI. He’s been a public advocate of government regulation for technology companies and their AI programs.

马斯克创立了OpenAI来应对AI对人类的生存威胁。 他一直是政府监管科技公司及其AI计划的公众倡导者。

But government can’t be the answer. The cycle time for governments to understand the technologies and threats, and then implement regulations, is far too long compared to the fast, iterative cycles of AI development.

但是政府不能成为答案。 与AI开发的快速迭代周期相比，政府了解技术和威胁然后实施法规的周期时间太长。

Worse, even if governments listen to Musk, not all of them will comply. Russia and China will almost certainly ignore regulations. And Musk himself tweeted, “It begins … ” about Vladimir Putin’s view on the importance of AI.

更糟糕的是，即使政府听从马斯克的话，也并非所有人都会遵守。 俄罗斯和中国几乎可以肯定会忽略法规。 马斯克本人在推特上写道：“开始……”是弗拉基米尔·普京关于人工智能重要性的观点。

If we regulate AI development in the countries that comply, aren’t we leaving AI — the most dangerous potential invention in human history — in the hands of the countries that refuse? Isn’t Musk playing right into Putin’s hands?

如果我们在遵守法规的国家规范AI的发展，我们是否会将AI(人类历史上最危险的潜在发明)交由拒绝的国家来处理？ 马斯克不是在扮演普京的手吗？

As part of his anti-AI strategy, Musk also founded Neuralink to act as a method for humans to evolve into cyborgs with a computer-connected neural lace.

作为他的反AI策略的一部分，马斯克还创立了Neuralink ，以作为人类通过计算机连接的神经花边进化为机器人的方法。

If AI can reprogram our societies using Facebook’s feed, wouldn’t a neural lace give unprecedented access for AI to hijack our minds and bodies?

如果AI可以使用Facebook的feed重新编程我们的社会，那么神经束带不会为AI劫持我们的思想和身体提供空前的机会吗？

Today, one of the few barriers that Super AI (not the narrow, prescriptively trained machine learning and deep learning variants) would face is the physical gap. This gap still requires humans in order for data centers to function, and humans must tend to physical breakages in the long supply chain required to maintain core utilities, such as electricity.

如今，Super AI(不是狭窄的，经过规范训练的机器学习和深度学习的变体)将面临的少数障碍之一是物理差距。 这种差距仍然需要人才能使数据中心正常运行，而且人必须在维护核心公用事业(例如电力)所需的长供应链中容易发生物理中断。

But Neuralink might enable AI to hop that barrier.

但是，Neuralink可能使AI摆脱障碍。

How about Musk’s ambitious plan B for planet earth — colonizing Mars? The computational requirements for such an endeavor are immense. Couldn’t AI hitchhike on computer systems on the way to the lonely red planet?

马斯克关于地球的雄心勃勃的B计划-殖民火星怎么样？ 这种努力的计算要求是巨大的。 AI不能在通往孤独的红色星球的路上搭便车吗？

Then there’s his crusade for global warming. Electric vehicles and solar panels will surely reduce global emissions by a significant volume. But Musk has already implemented autonomous driving — AI software to control his cars that can be easily updated with a new software release across the Internet.

然后是他对全球变暖的远征。 电动汽车和太阳能电池板必将大大减少全球排放量。 但是，马斯克已经实现了自动驾驶-AI软件来控制自己的汽车，可以通过互联网上的新软件轻松地对其进行更新。

In the Stephen King movie Trucks, released in 1997, homicidal trucks come to life and begin killing off the cast of characters. Couldn’t AI, having watched the movie on Netflix, be inspired to use autonomous vehicles as the vehicle for humankind’s extinction?

在1997年斯蒂芬·金(Stephen King)的电影《 卡车》(Trucks )中，杀人卡车栩栩如生，并开始杀死角色。 人工智能在看过Netflix上的电影时是否会受到启发，将自动驾驶汽车用作人类灭绝的工具？

And let’s not get started with what AI might do with giant boring machines from the Boring Company that can quickly tunnel beneath the world’s most populated cities.

而且，让我们不开始使用无聊公司的巨型无聊机器进行AI的工作，这些机器可以在世界上人口最多的城市下快速建立隧道。

Hollywood depictions of the future are naturally dire. Will The Terminator’s Skynet orchestrate global nuclear warfare and send robots out to exterminate humankind?

好莱坞对未来的描绘自然是可怕的。 请问 终结者的天网协调全球核战争，并发送出的机器人消灭人类？

We don’t know when Super AI will emerge, and if its nature will be binary — good or evil. We don’t know if it will be singular, or if convergent evolution will deliver us multiple Super AIs to contend with.

我们不知道超级人工智能何时会出现，以及它的本质是二进制的-善与恶。 我们不知道它是否会是单一的，或者会聚的进化是否会为我们提供多个超级人工智能来应对。

We do know that if and when AI does emerge, it will certainly be smarter than Elon Musk (or any of us, for that matter). How might AI use the fascinating and radical world of Elon Musk’s inventions then?

我们确实知道，如果确实出现了AI，当AI出现时，它肯定会比Elon Musk(或我们中的任何一个人)更聪明。 那么，人工智能将如何利用埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的迷人而激进的世界呢？

Before Elon Musk convinces the compliant world to regulate AI, perhaps he should consider the potential unintended consequences of his inventions and think more about regulating himself.

在埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)说服合规的世界来规范AI之前，也许他应该考虑自己发明的潜在潜在意想不到的后果，并更多地考虑规范自己。

After all, the fate of humankind may be in his hands.

毕竟，人类的命运可能掌握在他手中。

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this article, please hold down the clap button below ? to help others find it. The longer you hold it, the more claps you give!

谢谢阅读！ 如果您喜欢这篇文章，请按住下面的拍手按钮？ 帮助别人找到它。 握的时间越长，拍手就越多！

关于我 (About Me)

I’ve spent two decades decoding innovation, collecting the hidden frameworks that drive many of the most successful entrepreneurs in technology today. I’ve personally implemented these frameworks, inventing software products at Delphix and Avamar that have driven more than $4 billion in sales. Disrupt or Die is my first book.

我花了二十年的时间对创新进行解码，收集了隐藏的框架，这些框架推动了当今许多最成功的技术企业家。 我亲自实现了这些框架，在Delphix和Avamar发明了软件产品，这些产品推动了超过40亿美元的销售额。 中断或死亡 是我的第一本书。

Parts of this article are excerpted from Disrupt or Die.

本文部分内容摘自Disrupt或Die。

翻译自: https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/will-elon-musk-be-our-savior-or-our-destroyer-b0e3d6d46db/

马斯克发布会视