sql中150错误_过去150年中最糟糕的技术预测

sql中150错误

by Ilya Pestov

通过伊利亚·佩斯托夫(Ilya Pestov)

过去150年中最糟糕的技术预测 (The absolute worst technology predictions of the past 150 years)

There’s a long-standing tradition among scientists, engineers, and industrialists. Every new year, they make predictions about a future.

科学家，工程师和工业家之间有着悠久的传统。 每年新的一年，他们都会对未来进行预测。

Is blockchain a major technology, or it’s just a buzzword?

区块链是一项主要技术，还是只是一个流行词？

Bots vs Apps: who will win in 2017?

Bots vs Apps：谁会在2017年获胜？

Will this finally be the year that virtual reality stops giving people motion sickness?

虚拟现实最终将停止让人们晕车的一年吗？

Well, technology has proven to be extraordinarily slippery over the past century. Despite the vast information that industry insiders have had at they’re fingertips, they’ve made some pretty terrible forecasts over the years.

嗯，在过去的一个世纪中，技术被证明异常滑落。 尽管业内人士掌握了众多信息，但多年来，他们做出了一些非常糟糕的预测。

The predictions that history remembers most are those that demonstrate spectacular misjudgment, misunderstanding, overly optimistic hyperbole, self-delusion, or good old-fashion wishful thinking.

历史上最能记住的预言是那些表现出错误的判断力，误解，过分乐观的夸张，自欺欺人或过时的如意算盘的预言。

Below, I’ve listed the very worst predictions, which show how even the titans of industry don’t always know what they’re talking about. Whether they were predictions about technological progress, adoption rates, or market potential, we can all agree that these predictions were dead wrong.

下面，我列出了最糟糕的预测，这些预测表明即使是行业巨头也并不总是知道他们在说什么。 无论它们是关于技术进步，采用率或市场潜力的预测，我们都可以同意这些预测是完全错误的。

1876: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” — William Orton, President of Western Union.

1876年： “此“电话”有太多缺点，因此不能认真考虑作为一种通信手段。” —西联汇款总裁威廉·奥顿(William Orton) 。

1876: “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, chief engineer, British Post Office.

1876年： “美国人需要电话，但我们不需要。 我们有很多信使男孩。” —英国邮局总工程师William Preece爵士 。

1889: “Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” — Thomas Edison.

1889年： “用交流电(AC)闲逛只是浪费时间。 永远不会有人使用它。” - 托马斯·爱迪生。

1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

1903年： “马在这里留下来，但汽车只是一种新奇，是一种时尚。” —密歇根储蓄银行行长建议亨利·福特的律师霍勒斯·拉​​克汉姆不要投资于福特汽车公司。

1921: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio.

1921年： “ 无线音乐盒没有可想像的商业价值。 谁愿意为未发送给任何人的邮件付费？ ” —大卫·萨诺夫(David Sarnoff)的合伙人回应了后者呼吁在广播中投资的呼吁。

1926: “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility.” — Lee DeForest, “Father of Radio” and a pioneer in the development of sound-on-film recording used for motion pictures. He had over 180 patents.

1926年： “ 尽管从理论上和技术上来说电视是可行的，但从商业和财务上讲这是不可能的。 ” — Lee DeForest， “广播之父”，是电影胶卷录音发展的先驱。 他拥有180多项专利。

1932: “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” — Albert Einstein.

1932年： “ 没有丝毫迹象表明将获得核能。 这意味着必须随意粉碎原子。 ” — 爱因斯坦 。

1936: “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times.

1936年： “火箭将永远无法离开地球的大气层。” - 纽约时报。

1946: “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox.

1946年： “在最初的六个月后，电视将无法继续占领它所占领的任何市场。 人们很快就会厌倦每天晚上盯着胶合板盒子。” -电影制片人，20世纪福克斯联合创始人达里尔·扎纳克 ( Darryl Zanuck) 。

1949: “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers of the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh one and a half tons.” — Popular Mechanics.

1949年： “如果ENIAC上的计算器配备有18,000个真空管，重30吨，那么未来的计算机可能只有1000个真空管，重达1.5吨。” —流行力学。

1957: “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — Editor of Prentice Hall business books.

1957年： “我走遍了这个国家的广度和广度，并与最好的人进行了交谈，我可以向您保证，数据处理是一种流行，不会持续一年。” -Prentice Hall商业书籍的编辑。

1959: “The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most.” IBM told the eventual founders of Xerox.

1959年： “ 复印机的世界潜在市场最多为5,000。 IBM告诉Xerox的最终创始人。

1961: “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States.” — T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.

1961年： “在美国内部，几乎没有机会使用通信太空卫星来提供更好的电话，电报，电视或广播服务。” —美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)专员TAM Craven 。

1977: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” — Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp.

1977年： “任何人都没有理由在家中拥有一台计算机。” —数字设备公司创始人Ken Olsen 。

1981: “No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft.

1981年： “没有人需要超过637KB的内存用于个人计算机。 640KB应该足以容纳任何人。” —微软联合创始人兼董事长比尔·盖茨 。

1981: “Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” — Marty Cooper, inventor.

1981年： “蜂窝电话绝对不会取代本地有线系统。” —发明家Marty Cooper 。

1989: “We will never make a 32-bit operating system.” — Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft.

1989年： “我们永远都不会制造32位操作系统。” —微软联合创始人兼董事长比尔·盖茨 。

1992: “The idea of a personal communicator in every pocket is a “pipe dream driven by greed.” — Andy Grove, then CEO of Intel.

1992年： “在每个口袋中都使用私人通讯器的想法是“贪婪驱使的梦想”。 —英特尔首席执行官安迪·格鲁夫(Andy Grove) 。

1995: “I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” — Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet.

1995年： “我预测互联网将很快成为超新星，并在1996年发生灾难性的崩溃。” — Robert Metcalfe， 3Com的创始人，以太网的发明者。

2003: “The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model, and it might not be successful.” — Steve Jobs, in Rolling Stone

2003年： “购买音乐的订阅模式已经破产。 我认为您可以在订阅模型中使用“第二次来临”，但可能不会成功。” —史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)， 《 滚石》

2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.

2007年： “ iPhone不可能获得任何重要的市场份额。” —微软首席执行官史蒂夫·鲍尔默(Steve Ballmer) 。

“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” — Attributed to Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.

“所有可以发明的东西都已经发明了。” —归功于美国专利局局长Charles H. Duell，1899年。

经验教训：不要将趋势与事实混淆 (Lesson learned: don’t confuse trends with facts)

As Paul Krugman pointed out in his 1998 piece blissfully titled Why most economists’ predictions are wrong:

正如保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)在其1998年的一篇题为《 为什么大多数经济学家的预测是错误的》中指出的那样：

“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law” — which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants — becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

“互联网的增长将急剧放缓，因为“ 梅特卡夫定律 ”中的缺陷-表明网络中潜在连接的数量与参与者数量的平方成正比-变得显而易见：大多数人无话可说。对彼此！ 到2005年左右，很明显互联网对经济的影响不会大于传真机的影响。”

It’s my favorite prediction because as result he contradicts himself.

这是我最喜欢的预测，因为结果他与自己矛盾。

Predictions are a risky business. Even more so if they’re about the immediate future. Once shown to be wrong, the words return to their origin like a boomerang, and the quotes go on to forever haunt the speaker.

预测是一项冒险的业务。 如果它们是关于不久的将来的，那就更是如此。 一旦被证明是错误的，这些词就像回Dart一样回到了它们的起源，而引号则永远困扰着说话者。

Thanks for reading.

谢谢阅读。

翻译自: https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/worst-tech-predictions-of-the-past-100-years-c18654211375/

sql中150错误