对下一个互联网十年的门户思考

对下一个互联网十年的门户思考

 

文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)
QQ 543415188 

 

2007年的门户依然值得关注，虽然金山，巨人，阿里巴巴的先后上市转移了世人的部分目光，但门户依然是互联网爱好者们热衷的话题之一。尤其是中国互联网的第一个十年刚刚过去，在第一个十年中，门户对互联网的发展起到了非常强大的促进作用，然而在第二个十年，第三个呢？未来，门户还能不能成为主导互联网发展的一股主要力量，门户网站还能不能成为投资者眼中的香饽饽呢？

 

显然，2007年的门户可用一句“沉舟侧畔千帆过，病树前头万木春”来形容。首先是以Tom为代表的一批门户先后遭受了裁员和转型甚至撤退的命运。由于门户整体的格局在发生变化，所以Tom应该不会是最后一个出局者，有人便开始猜测Tom之后还有谁会倒下，还有谁会步其后尘。

 

另一方面，以猫扑网和凤凰网为代表的“新锐”似乎要迎难而上，谈及猫扑，言必称猫扑论坛。莫非猫扑网要实现从社区到门户的转型，从这个意义上说，历史上的新浪与网易似乎都是成功的先例。而凤凰网，这一家以资讯见长的网站也想来趟这淌浑水，资讯是门户的基础，凤凰网这一举措也并不为过。问题是市场和投资者对猫扑网和凤凰网的这种门户模式是否认可？

 

以新浪搜狐网易腾讯为代表的门户能走多远呢？若以收入来论门户成分，网易和腾讯无疑是最低的，搜狐其次，新浪最高。或许也只有新浪才能成功的续写“新浪之道”，而搜狐则开始步入网游，对其来讲，门户潜力的确有限。而网易和腾讯似乎更像杀“回马枪”，分别树立其其他有力的盈利模式之后回过头来发展门户。

 

还有就是所谓的新门户时代，以百度、阿里巴巴、博客网、社区网站为代表，这批门户和老门户最大的不同在于，后者并未对用户的需求进行过详细的分析，追求资讯内容的海量与丰富，而前者则是从需求出发，筛选出适合用户需求的资讯内容。这两种模式孰优孰劣难下定论，但这批新门户的崛起将是必然趋势。

 

在未来的互联网十年中，我们或许可以分析得出以下结论：

 

一， 资源整合的效用将大于其直接的广告收益

 

门户的盈利模式主要是广告，这是门户可以直接带来的有形资产，然而门户背后还有非常庞大的无形资产，那就是资源整合与海量用户。近年来，门户广告的市场增长率已经明显滞后于搜索引擎，网络游戏，电子商务的市场增长率。但这并不代表门户已经成为明日黄花，门户最大的优势在于用户量以及资源整合，这似乎印证了丁磊那句豪言壮语-----“Web2.0时代没人能玩的过门户”。然而这种资源整合配合一些新兴的盈利模式，无疑将发挥巨大的作用。

 

二， 广义的门户是指用户进入互联网的第一站

 

门户是什么？在过去的十年中，门户一直被认为大杂烩，拥有海量资讯的网站。但由于门户对海量资讯的整理和分类不够，搜索引擎的出现解决了这个问题。所以，很多人开始将首页换成百度Google。从这个意义上来讲，用户的第一站变成了搜索引擎。如果说将用户进入互联网的第一站作为门户，那除了几大传统门户之外，百度，阿里巴巴以及一些社区网站也将不可避免的成为新的门户。另外，还有以博客为入口的个人门户，在未来，谁能把握用户进入互联网的第一站谁才能在门户角逐中取胜。

 

Ponder the next ten years for portals

 

Portals are still so noticeable. Although Kingsoft, Giant and  Alibaba went public before and later and they attracted some attention, portals are still the most favorable popular topic. Especially the first ten years has just passed. In the first ten years, portals played an important rola in the development of Internet. But how about the next ten years? In the future, whether the portals can be still the powerful force, whether the portals can be still the popular for the investors? We look forward to the answer.

 

Evidently, the development of portals is so different. First, Tom, on behalf of some portals encountered the destiny of “Firing staff” and “Transform” even “Retreat”. Since the pattern of portals are changing, Tom is not the last one failure. Some friends begin to predict who will follow Tom’s way.

 

The second aspect is other kind of vigorous portals for example Mop and PhoenixNet is accepting the challenges. Maybe they will transform from community to portals. From this point, Sina and NetEase are two pioneers.  PhoenixNet is so good at information, as we know, information is the foundation of portals. It is nature for PhoenixNet to turn to one portal. What worries us is that whether the market and the investors accept the new mode of portals.

 

How long the oldest portals, for example Sina, Sohu, NetEase and Tecent, can last? If we ponder the quota of portals according to the profit, NetEase and Tecent is lowest of course. Sohu is better and Sina is the best. Maybe only Sina can proceed with  “the way of Sina”. Sohu has just begun to invest in On-line games. For Sohu, portal mode is limited. But NetEase and Tecent are playing “back thrust”. They have constructed some powerful profitable mode then get back to build portals.

 

The last is the time of “New portals”. Baidu, Alibaba, BologCn and other community websites can represent the the new trend. These kind of portals are different from the old portals because that the old ones have not analyzed the need of users. They just pursue great lot of information. But they former ones have screened out the suitable content. We can’t tell which is better, but it is inevitable for this kind of new portals to grow up.

 

In next ten years, maybe we can get such conclusion from analyzing the circumstances.

 

The integration if resources will be more profitable than advertisement

 

The main profitable mode is advertisement for portals. This is the direct tangible property. However, behind of portals what is more significant is the intangible property. These are brand, users, resources and so on. Recently, the growth rate of advertisement is lower than search market and online games, even e-business. This has proved what William Ding said------in the times of web2.0, nobody can excel portals”. But that will coordinate with some new profitable mode. It will be one feasible mode.

 

The wide definition of portals is the first portal for users

 

What’s portal? In the first ten years, portal is considered as hotchpotch. It contained great capacity of information. But it hasn’t classified the type. Search engine solved the problem. So many friends began to change the main page. From this aspect, the first portal for users is search engine, for example baidu and google. If we consider that, besides the several portals, badiu and alibaba will also become portals inevitably. Then we can also consider blog as personal portal. In the future, who can grasp the users, who can win in the future competition.
 

 

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