实际利率
实际利率(Effective Interest Rate)
什么是实际利率
实际利率是指剔除通货膨胀率后储户或投资者得到利息回报的真实利率。
哪一个国家的实际利率更高,热钱向那里走的机会就更高。比如说,美元的实际利率在提高,美联储加息的预期在继续,那么国际热钱向美国投资流向就比较明显。投资的方式也很多,比如债券,股票,地产,古董,外汇……。其中,债券市场是对这些利率和实际利率最敏感的市场。可以说,美元的汇率是基本上跟着实际利率趋势来走的。
实际利率和名义利率
简单的说,实际利率是从表面的利率减去通货膨胀率的数字,即公式为:名义利率 - 通胀率(可用CPI增长率来代替)。
一般银行存款及债券等固定收益产品的利率都是按名义利率支付利息,但如果在通货膨胀环境下,储户或投资者收到的利息回报就会被通胀侵蚀。实际利率与名义利率存在着下述关系:
1、当计息周期为一年时,名义利率和实际利率相等,计息周期短于一年时,实际利率大于名义利率。
2、名义利率不能是完全反映资金时间价值,实际利率才真实地反映了资金的时间价值。
3、以i表示实际利率,r表示名义利率,p表示价格指数,那么名义利率与实际利率之间的关系为,当通货膨胀率较低时,可以简化为。
4、名义利率越大,周期越短,实际利率与名义利率的差值就越大。
例如,假设一年期存款的名义利率为3%,而CPI通胀率为2%,则储户实际拿到的利息回报率只有1%。由于中国经济处于高速增长阶段,很容易引发较高的通胀,而名义利率的提升在多数时间都慢于通胀率的增长,因此时常处于实际利率为负的状态。也就是说,如果考虑通胀因素,储户将钱存入银行最终得到的负回报-亏损,既负利率。负利率环境将诱使储蓄从银行体系流出,刺激投资和消费,很容易引起资产价格的泡沫并有可能进一步推升通胀,央行一般都会通过持续加息的方式来改变经济体的负利率运行状态,抑制通胀,资产市场的泡沫也会逐步消退。所以,股票投资者在实际利率为负的初期还可以继续加码,但如果负利率持续时间过长,有宏观调控引发的风险就会加大,需要随时考虑退场。
编辑本段实际利率的计算
设i为当年存贷款的名义利率,n为每年的计息次数,则实际贷款利率r(n)为
r(n) = (1 + i / n)^ n - 1
当n趋于无穷大时,r则为连续复利利率,若欲使到期的连续复利与实际利率存款收益相同,则r应满足
r = n · ln(1 + r(n) / n)
Calculation
The effective interest rate is calculated as if compounded annually. The effective rate is calculated in the following way, where r is the effective annual rate, i the nominal rate, and n the number of compounding periods per year (for example, 12 for monthly compounding):
For example, a nominal interest rate of 6% compounded monthly is equivalent to an effective interest rate of 6.17%. 6% monthly is credited as 6%/12 = 0.5% every month. After one year, the initial capital is increased by the factor (1+0.005)12 ≈ 1.0617. (n.b.: Percentage figures must always be divided by 100, as the percent sign is a notation convenience; e.g. 6% = 0.06).
When the frequency of compounding is increased up to infinity the calculation will be:
The yield depends on the frequency of compounding.
Effective Annual Rate Based on Frequency of CompoundingNominal Rate | Semi-Annual | Quarterly | Monthly | Daily | Continuous |
1% | 1.002% | 1.004% | 1.005% | 1.005% | 1.005% |
5% | 5.062% | 5.095% | 5.116% | 5.127% | 5.127% |
10% | 10.250% | 10.381% | 10.471% | 10.516% | 10.517% |
15% | 15.563% | 15.865% | 16.075% | 16.180% | 16.183% |
20% | 21.000% | 21.551% | 21.939% | 22.134% | 22.140% |
30% | 32.250% | 33.547% | 34.489% | 34.969% | 34.986% |
40% | 44.000% | 46.410% | 48.213% | 49.150% | 49.182% |
50% | 56.250% | 60.181% | 63.209% | 64.816% | 64.872% |
The effective interest rate is a special case of the internal rate of return.