微分方程参数拟合-过拟合现象及处理

原问题地址：matlab 分式拟合,matlab 微分方程组的参数拟合_催眠神兔的博客-CSDN博客

微分方程式：

x'=dx/dt=a*0.0321*(b-x)-d*x-dy/dt,

y'= dy/dt=0.25*p1*exp(-p1*t)*x ,

四个待求参数：a、b、d、p1

t、x、y数据见下面：

//0 0 0  //这是初值

0,0,0,

0.1,0.486966799,0.048018378,

0.167,1.6657,0.05823,

0.2,0.860306078,0.060834243,

0.3,1.156255213,0.064254733,

0.4,1.390856542,0.065167644,

0.5,1.67518,0.06638,

0.6,1.724247244,0.065476325,

0.7,1.841108525,0.065493681,

0.8,1.93374543,0.065498314,

0.9,2.007179471,0.06549955,

1,1.92438,0.05641,

1.1,2.111536196,0.065499968,

1.2,2.148115682,0.065499991,

1.3,2.177112544,0.065499998,

1.4,2.200098596,0.065499999,

1.5,2.218319829,0.0655,

1.6,2.232763952,0.0655,

1.7,2.244213928,0.0655,

1.