文献回顾-美赛建模

最新推荐文章于 2023-02-01 10:39:43 发布

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最新推荐文章于 2023-02-01 10:39:43 发布

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分类专栏： python 文章标签： python 数据挖掘

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文献回顾-美赛建模1

Trajectory Tracking of Asian Giant Hornets Based on SVM and BA-SVM Algorithm

based on 2021 MCM Problem C: Confirming the Buzz about Hornets(to find out whether a pest or not)

类型：大数据分析题

大数据分析共三种类型–字符类型文本类型图像/视频类型

赛题重述

In September 2019, a colony of Vespa mandarinia (also known as the Asian giant hornet)was discovered on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. The nest was quicklydestroyed, but the news of the event spread rapidly throughout the area. Since that time,several confirmed sightings of the pest have occurred in neighboring Washington State, aswell as a multitude of mistaken sightings. See Figure 1 below for a map of detections,hornet watches, and public sightings.

在这里插入图片描述

Vespa mandarinia is the largest species of hornet in the world, and the occurrence of the nest was alarming. Additionally, the giant hornet is a predator of European honeybees, invading and destroying their nests. A small number of the hornets are capable of destroying a whole colony of European honeybees in a short time. At the same time, they are voracious predators of other insects that are considered agricultural pests.

The life cycle of this hornet is similar to many other wasps. Fertilized queens emerge in the spring and begin a new colony. In the fall, new queens leave the nest and will spend the winter in the soil waiting for the spring. A new queen has a range estimated at 30km for establishing her nest. More detailed information on Asian hornets is included in the problem attachments and can also be found online.

Due to the potential severe impact on local honeybee populations, the presence of Vespamandarinia can cause a good deal of anxiety. The State of Washington has created help line sand a website for people to report sightings of these hornets. Based on these reports from the public, the state must decide how to prioritize its limited resources to follow-up with additional in vestigation. While some reports have been determined to be Vespa mandarinia, many other sightings have turned out to be other types of insects.

The primary questions for this problem are“How can we interpret the data provided by the public reports?”and "What strategies can we use to prioritize these public reports for additional investigation given the limited resources of government agencies?”

Problems:

Your paper should explore and address the following aspects:

1.Address and discuss whether or not the spread of this pest over time can be predicted,and with what level of precision.

预测模型（讨论大黄蜂的出现随着时间等的变化，可以考虑空间特征进行分析）

2.Most reported sightings mistake other hornets for the Vespa mandarinia. Use only the data set file provided, and (possibly) the image files provided, to create,analyze, and discuss a model that predicts the likelihood of a mistaken classification.

分类模型（我的文章使用SVM来分类，要在模型分析上下功夫，对于Recall 等指标进一步分析）

3.Use your model to discuss how your classification analyses leads to prioritizing investigation of the reports most likely to be positive sightings.

评价（给出无监督样本的结果并评价模型的准确率等指标，便于进一步分析）

4.Address how you could update your model given additional new reports over time, and how often the updates should occur.

优化模型，学习率等参数的更新规则，以及数据集迭代的频次等

5.Using your model, what would constitute evidence that the pest has been eradicated in Washington State?

我对于黄蜂数量减少到认定范围的判定标准

Finally, your report should include a two-page memorandum that summarizes yourresults for the Washington State Department of Agriculture.

Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
您的PDF解决方案（总共不超过25页)应包括:
·One-page Summary Sheet.一页的摘要表
·Table of Contents.目录。
·Your complete solution.您的完整解决方案。

·Two-page Article.两页文章。
·References list.考文献清单。