Unit 10 - The Fantastic Spurt in Technology
Alvin Toffler writes about the fact that technology is advancing much faster today than ever before in history. The symbols of technology are no longer factory smokestacks or assembly lines. As we are headed for the future, the pace will quicken still further.
The Fantastic Spurt in Technology
A. Toffler
To most people the term technology conjures up images of smoky steel mills or noisy machines. Perhaps the classic representation of technology is still the assembly line created by Henry Ford half a century ago and made into a social symbol by Charlie Chaplin in Modern Times. This symbol, however, has always been inadequate and misleading, for technology has always been more than factories and machines. The invention of the horse collar in the middle ages led to major changes in agricultural methods and was as much a technological advance as the invention of the Bessemer furnace centuries later. Moreover, technology includes techniques, or ways to do things, as well as the machines that may or may not be necessary to apply them. It includes ways to make chemical reactions occur, ways to breed fish, plant forests, light theaters, count votes or teach history.
The old symbols of technology are even more misleading today, when the most advanced technological processes are carried out far from assembly lines or blast furnaces. Indeed, in electronics, in space technology, in most of the new industries, quiet and clean surroundings are characteristic -- even sometimes essential. And the assembly line -- the organization of large numbers of men to carry out simple repetitive functions -- is outdated. It is time for our symbols of technology to change -- to catch up with the quickening change in technology itself.
This acceleration is frequently dramatized by a brief account of the progress in transportation. It has been pointed out, for example, that in 6000 BC the fastest transportation available to man over long distances was the camel caravan, averaging eight miles per hour (mph). It was not until about 1600 BC when the chariot was invented that the maximum speed was raised to roughly twenty miles per hour.
So impressive was this invention, so difficult was it to exceed this speed limit, that nearly 3,500 years later, when the first mail coach began operating in England in 1784, it averaged a mere ten mph. The first steam locomotive, introduced in 1825, could have a top speed of only thirteen mph and the great sailing ships of the time labored along at less than half that speed. It was probably not until the 1880's that man, with the help of a more advanced steam locomotive, managed to reach a speed of one hundred mph. It took the human race millions of years to attain that record.
It took only fifty-eight years, however, to go four times that fast, so that by 1938 men in airplanes were traveling at better than 400 mph. It took a mere twenty-year flick of time to double the limit again. And by the 1960's rocket plants approached speeds of 4,000 mph. and men in space capsules were circling the earth at 18,000 mph.
Whether we examine distances traveled, altitudes reached, or minerals mined, the same accelerative trend is obvious. The pattern, here and in a thousand other statistical series, is absolutely clear and unmistakable. Thousands of years go by, and then, in our won times, a sudden bursting of the limits, a fantastic spurt forward.
The reason for this is that technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more technology possible, as we can see if we look for a moment at the process of innovation. Technological innovation consists of three stages, linked together into a self-reinforcing cycle. First, there is the creative, feasible idea. Second, its practical application. Third, its diffusion through society.
The process is completed, the loop closed, when the diffusion of technology embodying the new idea, in turn, helps generate new creative ideas. Today there is evidence that the time between each of the steps in this cycle has been shortened.
Thus it is not merely true, as frequently noted, that 90 percent of all the scientists who ever lived are now alive, and that new scientific discoveries are being made every day. These new ideas are put to work much more quickly than ever before. The time between the first and second stages of the cycle -- between idea and application -- has been radically reduced. This is a striking difference between ourselves and our ancestors. It is not that we are more eager or less lazy than our ancestors, but we have, with the passage of time, invented all sorts of social device to hasten the process.
But if it takes less time to bring a new idea to the marketplace, it also takes less time for it to sweep through the society. For example, the refrigerator was introduced in the United States before 1920, yet its peak production did not come until more than thirty years later. However, by 1950 -- in only a few years -- television had grown from a laboratory novelty to the biggest part of show business. So the interval between the second and third stages of the cycle -- between application and diffusion -- has likewise been cut, and the pace of diffusion is rising with astonishing speed.
The stepped-up pace of invention, application and diffusion, in turn, accelerates the whole cycle still further. For new machines or techniques are not merely a product, but a source, of fresh creative ideas.
参考译文——工艺技术上不可思议的突飞猛进
阿尔文·托夫勒写道，今天技术的发展比历史上任何时候都快得多。技术的象征已不再是工厂的大烟囱抑或流水装配线了。在我们奔向未来时，发展的速度将会更快。
工艺技术上不可思议的突飞猛进
A.托夫勒
对大多数人来说，“技术”这个词往往使人联想到浓烟滚滚的钢铁厂或是轰隆作响的机器。或许，技术的经典代表仍然是半个世纪之前亨利·福特首创的流水装配线。在电影《摩登时代》里，查理·卓别林则将流水装配线变成现代社会的象征。然而，这一象征并不完善，且易引起误解，因为技术从来就不仅仅是工厂和机器。中世纪发明的马轭导致了耕种方法的重大变革，它与几世纪后发明的贝西默鼓风炉一样是重大的技术进步。再者，除机器外，技术还包括技艺，即制作方法，而这些技艺、方法的运用并不一定都要机器。技术包括促成化学反应的方法，包括养鱼、造林、剧院照明、选票统计以及历史教学的方法等等。
到了今天，旧的技术象征更会引起误解，因为当今最先进的工艺流程是在远离流水装配线和鼓风炉的地方进行的。实际上，在电子技术、太空技术以及大部分新兴工业中，安静和清洁的环境是其特色—有时甚至是必不可少的。而流水装配线—组织大批的人从事简单的重复性的劳动—已经过时。现在该是更换我们的技术象征的时候了—以便赶上技术本身越来越快的变化。
简要地回顾一下交通发展史，工艺技术的这种加速变化往往便可得到生动形象的说明。譬如，有人指出，在公元前6千年的时候，人类远距离交通的最快手段是骆驼运输队，平均每小时8英里。直到公元前大约1千6百年双轮马拉战车的发明，才将最高速度提高到每小时20英里。
双轮马拉战车是一项非常突出的发明，要超过它的最高速度实在困难。过了将近3千5百年，到了公元1784年，第一辆邮车在英国运行，其时速平均只有10英里。1825年问世的第一辆蒸汽机车，最高时速仅为13英里，而当时的大帆船仅以不到火车一半的速度在海上慢慢颠簸。大概直到19世纪80年代，人类借助一种更为先进的蒸汽机车，才达到每小时100英里的速度。达到这一记录，人类花了数百万年的时间。
然而，此后只用58年，就把这一速度提高到原先的4倍。到1938年，人们乘坐飞机旅行，时速超过400英里。后来，只用了20年瞬息功夫，这个速度就又翻了一番。到了20世纪60年代，火箭飞机的时速接近4千英里，而人们乘坐宇宙飞船则以1万8千英里的时速绕地球运行。
我们无论是考察旅行的距离、达到的高度，还是考察矿产的开采，这样一种加速的趋向都是显而易见的。这里，以及其它上千种的系统的统计资料里，都明白无误地呈现出这种模式。数千年过去了，然后，到了我们的时代，一切极限突然统统被打破，出现了不可思议的突飞猛进。
这一情况的出现，其原因在于技术自身的扶植作用。现有的技术使得更多的技术得以实现。只要我们稍许看一看革新的过程，就会一目了然。技术革新包含三个阶段，它们连在一起形成一个自我强化的循环。首先是一个创造性的可行的想法。其二是它的实际应用。第三，是它在社会上的推广。
当体现这一新思想的技术推广反过来帮助产生新的创造性思想的时候，这一过程就完成了，这个循环也就结束了。今天，有证据表明，这一循环的每一个步骤之间的时间已经缩短了。
因此，正如人们常常提到的，一个千真万确的情况是，从古到今的科学家中有90%的人活在今天的世界上，新的科学发现现在天天都有。这些新的思想现在比以往任何时候都得到更快的应用。这一循环过程的第一和第二阶段之间—即想法和应用之间—的时间已大大缩短。这一点是我们和我们祖先之间的一个引人注目的差别。这不是说我们比祖先更急于求成或较少懒惰，而是由于时间的推移，我们已经发明了各种社会手段来加速这一进程。
但是如果说，将新思想投入市场应用的时间缩短了的话，那么，它在全社会推广的时间也缩短了。举例说吧，在美国，电冰箱在1920年前就开始使用了，但是直到30多年之后，它的生产才达到高峰。然而到1950年的时候—只经过几年时间—电视已从实验室的一件新玩意儿发展成娱乐业的最大的组成部分了。所以这一循环过程的第二和第三阶段之间—即应用和推广之间—的间隔也同样缩短了，而推广的进程正以惊人的速度加快进行。
发明、应用、推广的加速反过来又更进一步加速了整个循环过程。因为新的机器、新的技术不仅是一种新的创造性思维的产物，而且是新的创造性思想的源泉。
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