学了线性代数,感觉像是打开了一个通往新世界的大门,非常神奇。
本文讲述使用莱斯利矩阵模型预测蠵龟种群数量的演变。
首先,蠵龟(Loggerhead Sea Turtle)的种群基本信息如下表所示:
Table 1 Four-Stage Model for Loggerhead Sea Turtle Demographics | |||
Stage Number | Description (age in years) | Annual survivorship | Eggs laid per year |
1 | Eggs, hatchlings (<1) | 0.67 | 0 |
2 | Juveniles and subadults (1–21) | 0.74 | 0 |
3 | Novice breeders (22) | 0.81 | 127 |
4 | Mature breeders (23–54) | 0.81 | 79 |
然后,使用以下公式可计算各阶段的留存率(proportion remaining in stage i),
再使用以下公式计算各阶段生存下来并成功进入下一阶段的概率,
这样,可以计算出Leslie模型中用到一些参数的值如下:
pi | qi | di |
0 | 0.67 | 1 |
0.73936808 | 0.00063192 | 20 |
0 | 0.81 | 1 |
0.809723037 | 0.000276963 | 31 |
各参数的说明如下:
Note: | |||
1. di represents the duration of the ith stage | |||
2. si is the annual survivorship rate for that stage | |||
3. pi is the proportion remaining in stage i the following year | |||
4. e2, e3, e4 denote the average number of eggs laid by a member of stage i (i = 2, 3, 4) in 1 year | |||
5. qi proportion of the population that will survive and move into stage i + 1 |
莱斯利模型如下,
Leslie Matrix Model: | |||
p1 | e2 | e3 | e4 |
q1 | p2 | 0 | 0 |
0 | q2 | p3 | 0 |
0 | 0 | q3 | p4 |
将上述已知及计算出的参数填入上述莱斯利模型,得到如下莱斯利矩阵:
Leslie Matrix: | |||
0 | 0 | 127 | 79 |
0.67 | 0.7394 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0.000632 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.8077 |
然后,使用矩阵乘法及VBA宏代码,计算出以下结果:
Stage Number | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
year0 (Initial Population) | 200000 | 300000 | 500 | 1500 |
year1 | 182000 | 355820 | 190 | 1617 |
year2 | 151873 | 385033 | 225 | 1460 |
year3 | 143915 | 386448 | 243 | 1361 |
year4 | 138380 | 382163 | 244 | 1296 |
year5 | 133372 | 375286 | 242 | 1244 |
year6 | 129010 | 366846 | 237 | 1201 |
year7 | 124978 | 357683 | 232 | 1162 |
year8 | 121262 | 348206 | 226 | 1126 |
year9 | 117656 | 338709 | 220 | 1093 |
year10 | 114287 | 329271 | 214 | 1061 |
year11 | 110997 | 320035 | 208 | 1030 |
year12 | 107786 | 311002 | 202 | 1000 |
year13 | 104654 | 302171 | 197 | 971 |
year14 | 101728 | 293543 | 191 | 944 |
year15 | 98833 | 285203 | 186 | 917 |
year16 | 96065 | 277097 | 180 | 891 |
year17 | 93249 | 269249 | 175 | 865 |
year18 | 90560 | 261560 | 170 | 840 |
year19 | 87950 | 254073 | 165 | 816 |
year20 | 85419 | 246788 | 161 | 793 |
year21 | 83094 | 239706 | 156 | 771 |
year22 | 80721 | 232912 | 151 | 749 |
year23 | 78348 | 226298 | 147 | 727 |
year24 | 76102 | 219818 | 143 | 706 |
year25 | 73935 | 213522 | 139 | 686 |
year26 | 71847 | 207415 | 135 | 667 |
year27 | 69838 | 201500 | 131 | 648 |
year28 | 67829 | 195781 | 127 | 629 |
year29 | 65820 | 190206 | 124 | 611 |
year30 | 64017 | 184738 | 120 | 594 |
year31 | 62166 | 179487 | 117 | 577 |
year32 | 60442 | 174364 | 113 | 561 |
year33 | 58670 | 169421 | 110 | 545 |
year34 | 57025 | 164579 | 107 | 529 |
year35 | 55380 | 159896 | 104 | 514 |
year36 | 53814 | 155332 | 101 | 499 |
year37 | 52248 | 150908 | 98 | 485 |
year38 | 50761 | 146588 | 95 | 471 |
year39 | 49274 | 142397 | 93 | 457 |
year40 | 47914 | 138302 | 90 | 444 |
year41 | 46506 | 134363 | 87 | 432 |
year42 | 45177 | 130507 | 85 | 419 |
year43 | 43896 | 126765 | 82 | 407 |
year44 | 42567 | 123140 | 80 | 395 |
year45 | 41365 | 119570 | 78 | 384 |
year46 | 40242 | 116125 | 76 | 373 |
year47 | 39119 | 112825 | 73 | 363 |
year48 | 37948 | 109633 | 71 | 352 |
year49 | 36825 | 106488 | 69 | 342 |
year50 | 35781 | 103410 | 67 | 332 |
这和教材中的结果很接近(具体差异应该是参数的细微差异导致的)。
结论:
50年以后,这种动物所剩数量将大幅减少,看来这种动物属于濒危动物了。
参考:
教材中的完整案例如下,