Crisis Dents Putin's Popularity

俄罗斯政府警告说，今年经济衰退向纵深发展的程度将超过预期，而眼下有初步迹象表明，危机扩大已开始撼动总理普京(Vladimir Putin)和总统梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)一度固若金汤的公众支持率。一系列的坏消息，加上美国市场油价大幅走低，使卢布汇率下跌2%以上，俄罗斯两大主要股票交易所股指重挫9.4%，是接近5周来的最大降幅，监管机构因此不得不暂停交易。卢布兑美元-欧元一篮子货币周二走软，尾盘在40.45卢布。俄罗斯央行试图阻止卢布跌至41以下。Getty Images普京和梅德韦杰夫随着经济困境进一步蔓延和向实体经济深入，越来越多的工厂停工，数十万俄罗斯人失去工作，俄罗斯政府开始以更现实的态度谈论危机。比如，梅德韦杰夫周日对全国发表讲话，这是有关危机的一系列“炉边谈话”中的第一讲，使用的都是异常平实的语言。政府传递的信息是，形势在好转之前还将进一步恶化，但俄罗斯庞大的外汇储备将助其度过难关。目前俄罗斯拥有超过3,800亿美元外汇储备，在世界排名第三。俄罗斯经济部副部长克列帕奇(Andrei Klepach)周二说，过去8年持续繁荣的俄罗斯经济今年“可能”收缩2.2%，这对一个已经习惯于8%增幅的国家来说无疑是个硬着陆。他指出，经济收缩的主要原因将是投资下降14%，这个数字高于现有预期。对于政府官员此前预计的0.2%的下降幅度，独立分析师认为，鉴于原材料价格走势疲弱，这个预期偏于乐观。克列帕奇说，2009年通货膨胀可能会高于之前预计的13%，达到14%。在这番黯淡的最新预测之前，周一公布的工业生产数据显示，1月份俄罗斯工业产出值较上年同期下降16%，是数年来的最大降幅。与此同时，曾在九十年代引发社会动荡的拖欠工资现象上个月增加了差不多50%，涉及到50万人。梅德韦杰夫周二表示，由于俄罗斯主要出口产品石油的价格出现下跌，政府将被迫大幅削减预算。官员们表示，俄罗斯今年的预算赤字将达8%，可能会需要动用应急资金来填补缺口。普京称2009年预算调整是一个“优化选择”，承诺将维持甚至增加部分社会性开支。但他说，全球油价骤降使政府计划投入预算的石油收入减少了一半。政府一位高级部长宣布，克里姆林宫将需减少其在主办2014年索契冬季奥运会上的开支。这一表态还是首次，显示政府财政进一步吃紧。在传来上述这些负面消息的同时，官方民意调查机构俄罗斯民意研究中心（Russian Public Opinion Research Center）的调查结果显示，危机正在开始影响普京和梅德韦杰夫曾经极高的支持率。对普京的工作表示支持的受访者从去年9月的81%降至2月的74%。梅德韦杰夫的支持率从9月的79%降至2月的69%。该调查机构负责人弗德罗夫(Valery Fyodorov)对上述数字表示不以为然，称周三将公布的数据反映出的下降趋势将不会这么明显。他说，数字下降显示支持率回到了它们的正常水平，他认为之前异常高的支持率是受到去年俄罗斯对格鲁吉亚短暂战争的影响。俄罗斯赢得了那场战争。Andrew Osborn相关阅读中俄签订250亿美元石油协议 2009-02-18美俄两颗卫星太空相撞 2009-02-12俄罗斯银行重组外债的消息重创欧元 2009-02-10俄罗斯银行寻求外债重组 2009-02-10俄罗斯央行上调系列贷款利率 2009-02-09卢布还能撑多久？ 2009-02-05危机加剧 俄罗斯将从救企业转向救银行 2009-02-05俄罗斯面临卢布贬值的严峻考验 2009-02-04


The Russian government warned that the recession will be much deeper this year than expected amid the first signs that the widening crisis is beginning to dent the once-bulletproof popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev.Combined with a sharp drop in the price of oil in the U.S., the blizzard of bad news sent the ruble more than 2% lower as shares on the country's two main stock exchanges tumbled 9.4%, the most in almost five weeks, prompting regulators to temporarily halt trading. The ruble weakened Tuesday, trading late in the day at 40.45 against a basket of dollar-euro currencies. Russia's central bank is trying to keep the ruble from falling below 41 to the basket.As economic pain has spread further and deeper into the real economy, idling factories and putting hundreds of thousands of Russians out of work, the government has begun to talk about the crisis with greater realism. President Medvedev for example addressed the nation on Sunday in the first of a series of crisis-related fireside chats and used unusually plain language.The government's message is that things are going to get worse before they get better but that its huge foreign-currency reserves, of more than $380 billion, the third largest in the world, will see it through.Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said Tuesday that the Russian economy, which has boomed for the past eight years, will 'probably' contract by 2.2% this year, a hard landing for an economy used to 8% growth. He blamed a sharper-than-expected 14% drop in investment this year. Previously government officials had predicted the economy would shrink just 0.2%, a forecast that independent analysts said was optimistic, given depressed commodity prices. Mr. Klepach said inflation will probably be higher than expected in 2009 -- as much as 14%, up from a previously forecast 13%.The bleak new forecast followed grim industrial-production data on Monday that showed output in January plunged 16% from a year earlier, the steepest fall in years. Meanwhile, wage arrears, a prime cause of social unrest in the 1990s, increased by almost 50% last month, affecting half a million people.President Medvedev said on Tuesday that the government will be forced to make deep cuts in its budget because of the drop in the price of oil, Russia's main export earner. Officials said that Russia will run a budget deficit as large as 8% this year and that it will need to dip into rainy-day money to cover the shortfall. Mr. Putin described the 2009 budget changes as an 'optimization,' pledging to preserve and even increase some social spending.But he said tumbling global oil prices had halved the oil revenues the government expected to pour into the budget. In a further sign of tighter finances, a senior government minister announced -- for the first time -- that the Kremlin would need to reduce the amount it spends on hosting the Winter Olympics in Sochi in 2014.The negative news came as data from the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, a state-owned pollster, showed that the crisis is beginning to take the shine off Messrs. Putin and Medvedev's previously stratospheric poll ratings. The number of people who approved of Mr. Putin's work fell to 74% in February from 81% in September. The number of people who approved of Mr. Medvedev's performance fell to 69% in February from 79% in September.Valery Fyodorov, the polling center's director general, played down the figures, saying data due out Wednesday will show less dramatic declines. He said the lower figures showed the ratings were returning to their 'normal level' after what he said was an unusual spike caused by Russia's short victorious war against Georgia last year.Andrew Osborn