聪明人为什么会决策错误？在国会拷问各大银行老板之际，这个问题来得正是时候。监管部门和商业领袖仍在试图弄明白，如果两者有关联的话，决策者的失策如何引发了经济下滑。达特茅斯大学塔克商学院教授芬克斯坦恩对决策进行了研究，并试图提出部分答案。他在与人合着的新书《三思：为什么好领袖会作出坏决策，如何杜绝这种现象发生在你身上》Getty Images芬克斯坦恩与合著作者参考了神经科学心理学以及管理学方面的研究成果。最近他与《华尔街日报》进行了一次交流，下面是经过编辑的谈话摘要：领袖作出坏决策的主要原因是什么？领袖会依赖貌似有用的过去经验，但这实际上有时是危险的。一个最为人熟知的例子就是雷曼兄弟的富尔德(Dick Fuld)。在上世纪九十年代末的长期资本管理公司(LTCM)危机中，富尔德曾成功率领雷曼兄弟走出余震。10多年过去了，我认为他仍然相信自己能够再次成功。不过，他所依赖的经验不同于眼下住房市场导致的大规模崩溃。这次的问题更加错综复杂，更加难以应对。我们总是说经验是多么重要。我觉得我们过于看重经验了，因为过去的经验不一定总适用于你眼下所处的境地。你倾向于倚重经验，但经验有时并不能起到多少帮助。还有什么原因会让人作出错误决策？第二个原因与自利性有关。大多数人意识不到自利在潜意识中的作用。我们甚至感觉不到自己是多么自私自利。就拿美林前老板塞恩(John Thain)奖金的事情来说吧，谁会相信像他这么聪明的人会意识不到当时收取或发放如此巨额的奖金是不明智的？他的这种做法说不通。那么你又该如何解释？我认为这是他的潜意识在作怪。第三个原因是我们所谓的先入为主。领导们会对他们的业务作出先入为主的判断，但有时候预判是错误的。我们在书中研究了卡特里纳飓风，考量了指挥中心美国国土安全部。国土安全部负责人开始时先入为主地认为，卡特里纳飓风不会和佛罗里达州遭遇的其他任何飓风有什么太大的不同，而且一直抱着这种看法不放。（他后来向国会作证时说）他看到CNN报导说新奥尔良法国区的人还在开派对，他因此认为他们已经躲过了一劫。与此同时，实际上有数十个其他数据点流入指挥中心，显示情况并不像他所想像的那样。一个聪明有经验的（领导）为何会犯这样的错误？我认为，是因为他们容易先入为主，也就是开始时决定了什么事，无论后来情况如何都死守着最初的看法不放。还有别的原因吗？第四个原因是我们所谓的依恋，也就是对人地方或是东西是否恋恋不舍。举例来讲，企业接连缩减规模，或许还要出售业务。这个过程是否会以一种尽可能最佳的方式进行，从某种程度上讲，将取决于公司领导和其他管理人员在多大程度上意识到了他们可能有的依恋心理。他们会卖掉自己参与创建的业务吗？他们对需要裁减的人员种类有什么想法？有哪些方法可以帮助领导人避免做出错误决定？人们需要意识到，我们在各个情况下都是有偏见的。世上没有“客观”这种东西。要想降低做出错误决定的几率，首先，在做出重要决定之前，领导人要有这样的态度：我知道我们可能存在各种各样的偏见。让我们努力来找出都有哪些偏见吧。其次，避免陷入“应声虫陷阱”。你必须与不同的人进行讨论，并参考不同的数据来源。你要把一个勇于对提案说“不”的团队加进来，并且要加强这个团队的工作。你还有什么别的建议？还有一点是有关治理的。我已经研究董事会很长时间了，目前为止有15年或是20年了。我完全相信，高素质董事会和相对薄弱的董事会之间最大的区别在于他们实际参与货真价实的辩论的程度。Erin White相关阅读如何在经济低迷期争取加薪 2009-03-18逆境加薪不是梦 2009-02-05摆脱抱怨 学会感恩 2009-03-17
Why do smart people make bad decisions?With Congress grilling bank CEOs Wednesday, it's a timely question. Regulators and business leaders continue to try to figure out how decision-makers' missteps may have triggered the economic meltdown.Sydney Finkelstein, a professor at Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business, has studied decision-making, and tried to track down some answers in a new book he's co-authored called 'Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep it From Happening to You.'Mr. Finkelstein and his co-authors looked at research in neuroscience and psychology as well as management. He talked with The Journal recently; here are edited excerpts of the conversation.What are the main reasons that leaders make bad decisions?Leaders tend to rely on past experience that seems useful, but is actually sometimes dangerous. One of the most well known [examples] is Dick Fuld at Lehman. He saved Lehman in the aftermath of the LTCM crisis in the late '90s. Fast forward 10 years or so and he also, I believe, thought he would do it again. But the experience he was relying on was not the same as this massive housing-driven collapse. It's much more complex, much more complicated.We always talk about how important experience is. I think we overstate experience, because it doesn't exactly fit the situation you're in. You're liable to rely on it in a way that's just not going to be that helpful.Why else do people make bad decisions?A second reason has to do with self-interest. Most people don't realize self-interest operates at a subconscious level. We're not even aware of how self-interested we are. That is my take on the John Thain bonus story. Is there anyone who believes that he is not a smart enough guy to figure out that taking or giving [such large] bonuses [was not] a sensible thing to do?It doesn't make a lot of sense. So how do you explain it? My explanation is that it was the subconscious of his brain taking charge.The third one is what we call prejudgments. Leaders make prejudgments about their businesses that sometimes turn out to be wrong. In the book we studied Hurricane Katrina. We looked at the Department of Homeland Security, the operations center. The head of that group made an early prejudgment that Katrina was not going to be much more different than any hurricane in Florida, and he stuck to that prejudgment. [He later testified to Congress] that he saw a report on CNN of people partying in the French Quarter, believed they had dodged a bullet. Meanwhile there were literally dozens and dozens of other data points flowing into the operations center saying it wasn't quite the party he was observing.Why does a smart experienced [leader] make a mistake like that? I think it's this vulnerability to prejudgment -- deciding something is the way it is early on and sticking to it no matter what.Anything else?The fourth one is what we call attachments -- attachments to people or places or things. For example, company after company is engaged in downsizing and maybe selling off businesses. Whether or not that proceeds in the best way possible is going to depend in part on the extent to which the CEO and other members of the executive teams in these companies are aware of the attachments that they might have. Are they going to sell off a business they helped build themselves? How will they think about the types of people that they need to remove?What are some of the ways leaders can avoid making bad decisions?People need to recognize that we are biased in every single situation. There's no such thing as objectivity.The first thing leaders should do to reduce their odds of making bad decisions is walk into an important decision situation saying, 'Ok, I know that we are potentially biased in a variety of ways. Let's try to identify what those are.'Second is to avoid the 'yes man' trap. You have to bring different people and different data sources to the table. You want to add a 'no team' to argue against the proposal, and put some teeth behind that no team.What else do you suggest?Another idea is around governance. I've studied boards for --- it must be 15 or 20 years now. I'm completely convinced that the biggest differentiator between high quality boards and weaker boards is the extent to which they actually engage in real debate.Erin White
Why do smart people make bad decisions?With Congress grilling bank CEOs Wednesday, it's a timely question. Regulators and business leaders continue to try to figure out how decision-makers' missteps may have triggered the economic meltdown.Sydney Finkelstein, a professor at Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business, has studied decision-making, and tried to track down some answers in a new book he's co-authored called 'Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep it From Happening to You.'Mr. Finkelstein and his co-authors looked at research in neuroscience and psychology as well as management. He talked with The Journal recently; here are edited excerpts of the conversation.What are the main reasons that leaders make bad decisions?Leaders tend to rely on past experience that seems useful, but is actually sometimes dangerous. One of the most well known [examples] is Dick Fuld at Lehman. He saved Lehman in the aftermath of the LTCM crisis in the late '90s. Fast forward 10 years or so and he also, I believe, thought he would do it again. But the experience he was relying on was not the same as this massive housing-driven collapse. It's much more complex, much more complicated.We always talk about how important experience is. I think we overstate experience, because it doesn't exactly fit the situation you're in. You're liable to rely on it in a way that's just not going to be that helpful.Why else do people make bad decisions?A second reason has to do with self-interest. Most people don't realize self-interest operates at a subconscious level. We're not even aware of how self-interested we are. That is my take on the John Thain bonus story. Is there anyone who believes that he is not a smart enough guy to figure out that taking or giving [such large] bonuses [was not] a sensible thing to do?It doesn't make a lot of sense. So how do you explain it? My explanation is that it was the subconscious of his brain taking charge.The third one is what we call prejudgments. Leaders make prejudgments about their businesses that sometimes turn out to be wrong. In the book we studied Hurricane Katrina. We looked at the Department of Homeland Security, the operations center. The head of that group made an early prejudgment that Katrina was not going to be much more different than any hurricane in Florida, and he stuck to that prejudgment. [He later testified to Congress] that he saw a report on CNN of people partying in the French Quarter, believed they had dodged a bullet. Meanwhile there were literally dozens and dozens of other data points flowing into the operations center saying it wasn't quite the party he was observing.Why does a smart experienced [leader] make a mistake like that? I think it's this vulnerability to prejudgment -- deciding something is the way it is early on and sticking to it no matter what.Anything else?The fourth one is what we call attachments -- attachments to people or places or things. For example, company after company is engaged in downsizing and maybe selling off businesses. Whether or not that proceeds in the best way possible is going to depend in part on the extent to which the CEO and other members of the executive teams in these companies are aware of the attachments that they might have. Are they going to sell off a business they helped build themselves? How will they think about the types of people that they need to remove?What are some of the ways leaders can avoid making bad decisions?People need to recognize that we are biased in every single situation. There's no such thing as objectivity.The first thing leaders should do to reduce their odds of making bad decisions is walk into an important decision situation saying, 'Ok, I know that we are potentially biased in a variety of ways. Let's try to identify what those are.'Second is to avoid the 'yes man' trap. You have to bring different people and different data sources to the table. You want to add a 'no team' to argue against the proposal, and put some teeth behind that no team.What else do you suggest?Another idea is around governance. I've studied boards for --- it must be 15 or 20 years now. I'm completely convinced that the biggest differentiator between high quality boards and weaker boards is the extent to which they actually engage in real debate.Erin White
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