杰夫贝索斯的regret minimization framework

http://tech.qq.com/a/20170617/000297.htm

亚马逊刚刚展开了该公司史上最大规模的一笔交易。如同BI的鲍勃-布莱恩（Bob Bryan）报道的那样，亚马逊将以每股42美元的现金收购美国全食超市(Whole Foods Market)，而且交易将完全用现金支付，这一交易也让全食超市的总价值高达137亿美元。

为了获得亚马逊首席执行官杰夫-贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）是如何决定要收购全食超市的一些蛛丝马迹，我们不妨再看一段经常被引用的对贝索斯的采访内容。

那次采访好像是由美国成就学院（Academy of Achievement）实施，在这次采访中，贝索斯探讨了他提出的“遗憾最小化框架(RegretMinimization Framework)”这一概念。

以下就是贝索斯有关“遗憾最小化框架”的相关言辞。

“我想为自己规划活到80岁时的模样，那时我会说，‘现在就让我回顾一下我的人生，我想最大程度地减少我的遗憾’。”

“我知道，当我80岁的时候，我不会为我做过的这些尝试感到遗憾。我不会后悔我投身于所谓的互联网这件事。我认为互联网是一个真正重要的领域。我知道，如果我失败了，我也不会因此而遗憾。”

“但我知道我可能会遗憾一件事，那就是我从未尝试过。我知道，一旦如此，这种遗憾会伴随我一身。”

贝索斯认为，失败业已成为亚马逊必不可少的一部分。BI的尤格尼-吉姆（Eugene Kim）曾报道过，贝索斯“声称人们十次尝试会有九次失败，但总有一次会取得成功，而且会取得巨大成功。即使成功机率只有10%，人们也应当每次都全力以赴，奋力一博。”

当然，贝索斯并非唯一使用这种战略而获得成功的人。世界激励大师托尼-罗宾斯(Tony Robbins)在接受BI的采访时也曾表示过，一旦他在那些会让他感到恐惧的事情面前犹豫不决时，他就会想像他在85岁时的模样，坐在摇椅上，回顾自己的人生。那时，他就会问自己——做了那些令人震惊的事情，或者没有做这些事——会为这些决定而更加后悔吗？

或许，对任何人而言，这都是一个非常有用的问题，也是我们应当扪心自问的问题——即使大家没有像贝索斯或罗宾斯那样功成名就。（编译/金全）

原文：

http://bijansabet.com/post/147533511/jeff-bezos-regret-minimization-framework

by Jeff Bezos, 2001

I went to my boss and said to him, “You know, I’m going to go do this crazy thing and I’m going to start this company selling books online.” This was something that I had already been talking to him about in a sort of more general context, but then he said, “Let’s go on a walk.” And, we went on a two hour walk in Central Park in New York City and the conclusion of that was this. He said, “You know, this actually sounds like a really good idea to me, but it sounds like it would be a better idea for somebody who didn’t already have a good job.” He convinced me to think about it for 48 hours before making a final decision.

So, I went away and was trying to find the right framework in which to make that kind of big decision. I had already talked to my wife about this, and she was very supportive and said, “Look, you know you can count me in 100 percent, whatever you want to do.” It’s true she had married this fairly stable guy in a stable career path, and now he wanted to go do this crazy thing, but she was 100 percent supportive. So, it really was a decision that I had to make for myself, and the framework I found which made the decision incredibly easy was what I called – which only a nerd would call – a “regret minimization framework.”

So, I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, “Okay, now I’m looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have.” I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn’t regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision. And, I think that’s very good. If you can project yourself out to age 80 and sort of think, “What will I think at that time?” it gets you away from some of the daily pieces of confusion. You know, I left this Wall Street firm in the middle of the year. When you do that, you walk away from your annual bonus. That’s the kind of thing that in the short-term can confuse you, but if you think about the long-term then you can really make good life decisions that you won’t regret later.