A 股市场将进一步提振信心新一轮措施有望巩固上升势头【中英文翻译】

A-share market set to further buoy confidence

Upward momentum expected to be consolidated by new round of measures

An investor looks at share prices at a brokerage in Fuyang, Anhui province. [Photo by Wang Biao/For China Daily]

Following the A-share market's recent robust recovery buoyed by a number of stronger-than-expected stimulative policies, increasingly confident investors are attaching more attention to the stock market, whose upward momentum can be further consolidated by more supportive measures and the ongoing optimization of China's economic growth, said industry experts.

Preparations were made during the National Day holiday, which ended on Monday. The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced on Sunday that it will add an extra five minutes, from 9:25 to 9:30 on each trading day, for designated transactions. The new policy will take effect on Tuesday, the first trading day after the holiday.

As explained by industry experts, a designated transaction is a step that an investor must take between opening a new stock account and commencing trading on the SSE.The latest adjustment at the SSE has been made to address the surging number of newly registered retail investors over the past few days and to facilitate trading efficiency once the market resumes, they said.

The market's upbeat sentiment can be felt at securities brokerages. Leading brokerages provided round-the-clock online account opening and consulting services during the recent holiday. Sinolink Securities said the account opening appointments they received during the holiday jumped 150 percent from a month earlier. Minsheng Securities said the number of daily requests for opening stock accounts over the past seven days was four times the amount before the holiday.

To meet such surging demand, the securities account platform and identification information checking system at China Securities Depository and Clearing Co resumed operation on Sunday and Monday.

Investor confidence has been supported by the A-share market's recent strong rebound. Ever since the batch of incremental policies was introduced on Sept 24, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 20 percent by the end of September, with the Shenzhen Component Index up 29 percent. The combined trading value at the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges hit a new single-day record of 2.6 trillion yuan ($370 billion) on Sept 30.

Laura Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said on Oct 3 that Chinese equities will gain another 10 to 15 percent on average if a new round of fiscal expenditure measures can be released in the following weeks.

At a news conference scheduled for Tuesday, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator, will explain their measures to better implement the range of supportive policies released in late September, in order to further advance economic growth and optimize China's economic structure.

Yang Delong, chief economist at First Seafront Fund, said the 140-trillion-yuan Chinese household savings will provide more capital for the A-share market after the National Day holiday, providing more upward impetus for the indexes.

The increase in the Hong Kong stock market has already overtaken that of the A-share market as the latter took more days off for the holiday, said experts at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. Therefore, a continued rally can be expected from the A-share market in the short run to narrow the price gap with Hong Kong, they added.

Dai Kang, managing director of the development research center at GF Securities, said private equity investment funds have increased their exposure to the A-share market, which has just seen the strongest rebound in months. Chinese policymakers have smartly used the time window of interest rate cuts made by the US Federal Reserve to introduce stronger-than-expected supportive measures, he said.

Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight, saying that recent stimulus measures have bolstered confidence, and Chinese equities' valuations are below historical averages while their earnings could further improve.

Qiu Xiang, joint chief strategist at CITIC Securities, said that the current A-share market rally is mainly supported by reversed market expectations, as a result of the innovative monetary policies and a relaxed grip on the property market announced in late September. A further market recovery can be expected, with companies showing improving earnings and those benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand offering more opportunities to investors, he added.

Analysts from Huafu Securities also warned investors of the possibility of adjustments and fluctuations in the A-share market after it experienced a drastic increase. But the recent bull run is far from its end. The overall rise will last longer, they said.

【翻译】

行业专家表示，随着 A 股市场近期在一系列强于预期的刺激政策的推动下强劲复苏，投资者越来越有信心，越来越关注股市，而股市的上涨势头可以通过更多的支持措施和中国经济增长的持续优化来进一步巩固。

准备工作是在周一结束的国庆假期期间进行的。上海证券交易所周日宣布，将在每个交易日的 9：25 至 9：30 增加指定交易 5 分钟。新政策将于周二，即假期后的第一个交易日生效。

正如行业专家解释的那样，指定交易是投资者在开设新股票账户和开始在上交所交易之间必须采取的步骤。他们表示，上交所的最新调整是为了解决过去几天新注册散户投资者数量激增的问题，并在市场恢复后提高交易效率。

证券经纪公司可以感受到市场的乐观情绪。领先的经纪公司在最近的假期期间提供全天候的在线开户和咨询服务。国金证券表示，他们在假期期间收到的开户预约比一个月前增长了 150%。民生证券表示，过去 7 天每天的股票开户请求数量是节前的四倍。

为满足如此激增的需求，中国证券登记结算公司的证券账户平台和身份信息查询系统已于周日和周一恢复运行。

A股市场近期的强劲反弹支撑了投资者的信心。自 9 月 24 日推出这批增量政策以来，截至 9 月底，上证综指上涨了 20%，深圳成分指数上涨了 29%。9 月 30 日，上海和深圳交易所的总交易额创下 2.6 万亿元人民币（3700 亿美元）的单日新纪录。

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席中国股票策略师王玲玲（Laura Wang）10月3日表示，如果未来几周能够出台新一轮财政支出措施，中国股市平均将再上涨10%至15%。

在定于周二举行的新闻发布会上，中国最高经济监管机构国家发展和改革委员会的官员将解释他们为更好地实施 9 月下旬发布的一系列支持政策而采取的措施，以进一步推动经济增长并优化中国的经济结构。

第一海滨基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，140万亿元的中国家庭储蓄将为国庆假期后的A股市场提供更多资金，为指数提供更多上行动力。

申万宏源证券的专家表示，香港股市的涨幅已经超过了 A 股市场，因为后者在假期放假的天数更多。因此，他们补充说，预计 A 股市场在短期内会继续反弹，以缩小与香港的价格差距。

广发证券发展研究中心董事总经理戴康表示，私募股权投资基金增加了对A股市场的敞口，该市场刚刚出现了几个月来最强劲的反弹。他说，中国的政策制定者巧妙地利用了美联储降息的时间窗口，推出了强于预期的支持措施。

高盛（Goldman Sachs）将对中国股市的看涨评级上调至增持，称最近的刺激措施提振了信心，中国股市的估值低于历史平均水平，而其盈利可能会进一步改善。

中信证券联席首席策略师邱翔表示，当前A股市场的反弹主要受到市场预期逆转的支持，这是9月下旬宣布的创新货币政策和放松对房地产市场的控制的结果。他补充说，可以预期市场将进一步复苏，企业盈利改善，而受益于国内需求复苏的企业为投资者提供更多机会。

华孚证券的分析师还警告投资者，A股市场在经历大幅上涨后可能会出现调整和波动。但最近的牛市远未结束。他们说，整体上涨将持续更长时间。