修正 SEIR传染病动力学模型应用于冠状病毒病( COVID-19) 疫情预测和评估

修正 SEIR传染病动力学模型应用于冠状病毒病( COVID-19) 疫情预测和评估

传统的 SEIR 模型

​ 在传统的 SEIR 模型中，研究对象被分成 S、E、I、R 等 4 种类型。

（1）S(Susceptible)：易感者，从未感染病毒的健康人群，但会因为接触感染者而

感染病毒。

（2）E(Exposed)：潜伏者，感染了病毒的易感者在出现症状之前所处的状态。

（3）I(Iinfectives)：感染者，在 14 天潜伏期出现自我感知或可临床识别的症状与

特征的病毒携带者，具有较强的传播能力，可以将病毒传播到接触的易感者。

（4）R(Recovered)：移出者，感染者治疗完成痊愈或者死亡的人群。恢复者治愈

之后具有抗体，即使与感染者接触也不会被传染。

​ 图中，𝜌为一名感染者每一时刻平均接触到的人数；𝑠为易感者所占所有人群的比例；

𝛽为每一时刻潜伏者中将会有占𝛽的人群转化为感染者，其中𝛽为平均潜伏期的倒数；𝛼表

示治愈率和死亡率的总和。

​ 传统SEIR模型存在着许多改进的空间，为了使其更加贴合 COVID-19的传播规律。

就如来说，通过考虑时变传播率，我们可以引入无症状感染者等更多类型的人群。

改进的 SEIR 模型（引入无症状感染者）

人群类型修改

（1）E重定义

被监测出有可疑迹象，实际上可能携带病毒也可能不携带病毒的人群。

（2）引入 U(Unsymptomatic)：无症状感染者

U 与 E 在本模型中最大的区别在于，U 容易被认为是“健康的”，从而没有被采取

任何强制措施，这种情况下他们的传播能力将远大于 E。

（3）I重定义

依据国家“自行在家隔离”防控策略，除医务人员之外，其他人被感染几率极低。

且因防护设备密不透风，感染可能性相对较低。由此，对 I 传播能力进行重定义，认为

I 不具有较高的传播能力。

模型假设

（1） 依据重定义的I，假设I对S没有传播能力

（2）根据目前已收集到的数据，全国易感者比例始终接近于 1（非易感者人数在

30 万人以内），对传播率的影响较小，由此假设 U 和 E 的传播率是恒定的。

（3）假定 S 可以被 U 和 I 传染。

（4）被治愈者再感染 COVID-19 的可能性极低，由此假设被治愈者不会被传播。

（5）E 中未携带病毒的人在 14 天（医学观察期为 14 天）后将变为 S，因此假设每

日 1/14 的 E 回到易感人群。

示意图

一位 R 在单位时间内可将 ${\lambda }_1$ 个 S 变为 E，而一名 U 在单位时间内传染${\lambda }_2$ 个 S，携带病毒的 E 在所有 E 中所占比例为 ，由此可得 S 变化方程为：
$$\frac{d{S}_t}{dt}=-{\lambda }_1{E}_t-{\lambda }_2{U}_t+\frac{1}{14}(1-p_1)E_t$$
U 在易感人群中传播病毒后，被传播病毒的 S 变为 U，这些 U 如果在体温轨迹等监测中出现疑似点，则有一定概率 p2被发现，变为 E，由此可得 U 变化方程为：
$$\frac{d{U}_t}{dt}={\lambda }_2{U}_t-p_2{U}_t$$
带病毒 E（比例为 p1）在单位时间内变为 I 的概率为 p3，未带病毒 E（比例为 1- p1） 在 14 天观察期后，返回 I 中，由此可得 E 变化方程为：
$$\frac{d{E}_t}{dt}=p_2{U}_t+{\lambda }_1{E}_t-p_1{p}_3{E}_t-\frac{1}{14}(1-p_1)E_t$$
E 被确诊后变为 I，而 I 因至于或死亡而变为 R，被治愈者不会被传播，t 时刻的治愈率和死亡率分别为 $p_{c,t} $和 $p_{d,t} $，由此可得 I 和 R 变化方程为：
$$\frac{d{I}_t}{dt}=p_1{p}_3{E}_t-(p_{c,t}+p_{D,t})I_t$$

$$\frac{d{R}_t}{dt}=(p_{c,t}+p_{D,t})I_t$$

模拟结果

通过设置可变参数，我们可以观察到各类人群的变化趋势，并分析其中参数的稳定性。

模型局限性

由于每个阶段的控制力度不同，只能较好地拟合了疫情发生的初期阶段，可以为制定未来的疫情干预决策提供一定的理论支持。但是，模型不可避免地会与现实存在一定差异，进而导致分析预测结果存在一定的偏差。

模型局限性

由于每个阶段的控制力度不同，只能较好地拟合了疫情发生的初期阶段，可以为制定未来的疫情干预决策提供一定的理论支持。但是，模型不可避免地会与现实存在一定差异，进而导致分析预测结果存在一定的偏差。

%%%%----------------func.m-------------------------%%%%

function [ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )
%--------------------------------------------------------------------------
%   初始化
%--------------------------------------------------------------------------
%clear;clc;

%--------------------------------------------------------------------------
%   参数设置
%--------------------------------------------------------------------------
N = 1400000000;            %总人口                                          
E = 20;                    %疑似病人                                            
I = 410;                   %确诊                                            
S = N - I;                 %易感人群                                                
R = 0;                     %退出人群                                  
U = 69921;                 %无症状

t1 = datetime(2020,1,13);
t2 = datetime(2020,9,6);
t = t1:t2;

T = 1:length(t);
for idx = 1:length(T)-1
    S(idx+1) = S(idx) - lamda1*E(idx)-lamda2*U(idx)+1/14*(1-p1)*E(idx);
    U(idx+1) = U(idx) + lamda2*U(idx) - p2*U(idx);
    E(idx+1) = E(idx) + lamda1*E(idx) - 1/14*(1-p1)*E(idx) - p1*p3*E(idx);
    I(idx+1) = I(idx) + p1*p3*E(idx) + p2*U(idx) - (pc+pd)*I(idx);
    R(idx+1) = R(idx) + (pc+pd)*I(idx);
    
end

figure(1)
plot(t,E,t,I,t,R,t,U);grid on;
xlabel('天');ylabel('人数')
legend('疑似','感染者','康复者','无症状')
title('疫情预测趋势图')
%plot(t,E,t,I,t,R,t,U);grid on;

wucha = 1;
end

slider.m

%%%%----------------slider.m-------------------------%%%%


slider.m

function varargout = slider(varargin)
% SLIDER MATLAB code for slider.fig
%      SLIDER, by itself, creates a new SLIDER or raises the existing
%      singleton*.
%
%      H = SLIDER returns the handle to a new SLIDER or the handle to
%      the existing singleton*.
%
%      SLIDER('CALLBACK',hObject,eventData,handles,...) calls the local
%      function named CALLBACK in SLIDER.M with the given input arguments.
%
%      SLIDER('Property','Value',...) creates a new SLIDER or raises the
%      existing singleton*.  Starting from the left, property value pairs are
%      applied to the GUI before slider_OpeningFcn gets called.  An
%      unrecognized property name or invalid value makes property application
%      stop.  All inputs are passed to slider_OpeningFcn via varargin.
%
%      *See GUI Options on GUIDE's Tools menu.  Choose "GUI allows only one
%      instance to run (singleton)".
%
% See also: GUIDE, GUIDATA, GUIHANDLES

% Edit the above text to modify the response to help slider

% Last Modified by GUIDE v2.5 08-Sep-2020 10:11:21

% Begin initialization code - DO NOT EDIT
gui_Singleton = 1;
gui_State = struct('gui_Name',       mfilename, ...
                   'gui_Singleton',  gui_Singleton, ...
                   'gui_OpeningFcn', @slider_OpeningFcn, ...
                   'gui_OutputFcn',  @slider_OutputFcn, ...
                   'gui_LayoutFcn',  [] , ...
                   'gui_Callback',   []);
if nargin && ischar(varargin{1})
    gui_State.gui_Callback = str2func(varargin{1});
end

if nargout
    [varargout{1:nargout}] = gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});
else
    gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});
end
% End initialization code - DO NOT EDIT


% --- Executes just before slider is made visible.
function slider_OpeningFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles, varargin)
% This function has no output args, see OutputFcn.
% hObject    handle to figure
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% varargin   command line arguments to slider (see VARARGIN)

% Choose default command line output for slider
handles.output = hObject;

% Update handles structure
guidata(hObject, handles);

% UIWAIT makes slider wait for user response (see UIRESUME)
% uiwait(handles.figure1);


% --- Outputs from this function are returned to the command line.
function varargout = slider_OutputFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles) 
% varargout  cell array for returning output args (see VARARGOUT);
% hObject    handle to figure
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Get default command line output from handles structure
varargout{1} = handles.output;


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit1,'string',num2str(p1))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit1 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit1 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit2,'string',num2str(p2))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider2_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit2 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit2 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit2_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider3_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit3,'string',num2str(p3))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider3_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit3_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit3 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit3 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit3_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider4_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit4,'string',num2str(lamda1))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider4_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit4_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit4 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit4 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit4_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider5_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit5,'string',num2str(lamda2))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider5_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit5_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit5 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit5 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit5_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider6_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit6,'string',num2str(pc))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider6_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit6_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit6 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit6 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit6_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end


% --- Executes on slider movement.
function slider7_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'Value') returns position of slider
%        get(hObject,'Min') and get(hObject,'Max') to determine range of slider
p1 = get(handles.slider1,'value');
p2 = get(handles.slider2,'value');
p3 = get(handles.slider3,'value');
lamda1 = get(handles.slider4,'value');
lamda2 = get(handles.slider5,'value');
pc = get(handles.slider6,'value');
pd = get(handles.slider7,'value');
set(handles.edit7,'string',num2str(pd))
[ wucha ] = func( p1,p2,p3,lamda1,lamda2,pc,pd )

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function slider7_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to slider7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: slider controls usually have a light gray background.
if isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor',[.9 .9 .9]);
end



function edit7_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit7 as text
%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit7 as a double


% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit7_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject    handle to edit7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end

源代码：https://paste.ubuntu.com/p/vH9g6BtBdW/