Solar energy enjoys a glowing outlook

Solar energy’s time in the sun may be at hand. Prices have fallen so low that, in some countries, electricity from the sun can be far cheaper than that generated by fossil fuels.

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According Deutsche Bank’s recent bullish report on solar power, unsubsidized rooftop solar power costs $0.08 – $0.13 per kilowatthour (kWh) globally, which can be as much as 40 percent below retail electricity prices. As this Reuters graphic shows, Australia’s rate for solar power is $0.15/kWh, less than one-third of electricity’s average price there, making the country an exemplar of grid parity. Meanwhile, in oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, solar is still more expensive than the overall electricity price.

In the United States, the levelized cost of solar energy is $0.17 per kWh, a penny cheaper than electricity’s average price. But solar sees just a faint shadow of the popularity that other power sources enjoy, with solar projects adding up to less than one half of one percent of the megawatthours generated in the U.S.

But proponents of solar energy have reason for optimism according to that Deutsche Bank report: “In markets heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation, the ratio of coal based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months.”

太阳能的时代即将来临.在一些国家，电力价格降低的幅度如此之大，以至于来自于太阳能的电力价格远比化石原料便宜。

根据德意志银行最近的太阳能看涨报告，全球来看，未经补贴的屋顶太阳能成本大约是在0.08至0.13美元每千瓦时，这比零售的电力价格便宜40%左右。正如这张路透社的图表所显示的那样，澳大利亚的太阳能价格是0.15美元每千瓦时，比电力平均价格的三分之一还低，这使澳大利亚成为同期国家平价电力的典范。于此同时，在石油丰富的国家，如沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋，太阳能（产生的电力）价格仍然比总体电力价格要高。

在美国，太阳能的平准化成本是0.17美元每千瓦时，比电力平均价格便宜一个便士。但在美国，太阳能处于其他能源的阴影之下，在去年的生产总电力中，只有不到0.5%兆瓦时是由太阳能产生的。

但是太阳能的支持者们有理由为此感到乐观，根据德意志银行的报告，在这个严重依赖燃煤发电的市场上，四年前，零售的电力成本与太阳能发电成本比是7：1，而现在比例已经小于2：1，在未来的12到18个月中，这一比例极有可能下降到1：1