What happens when the Fed starts losing money

What happens when the Fed starts losing money

Ever since theFederal Reserve first started buying up financial assets back in 2008,some havefretted about taxpayer exposure. The private debt purchased by the Fed to propup the financial system might sour. The government bonds it has bought withnewly created money, a strategy dubbed “quantitative easing(QE)”, could fall invalue if interest rates rose.

自从2008年开始，联邦储备系统开始买进金融资产，一些人就对纳税人的公开感到不愉快。联邦政府购买私人债务来支持经济系统的计划可能泡汤。使用量化宽松策略，政府用新发行的钞票购买政府债券，如果利率上涨，政府债券可能贬值。

（原文）自美联储2008年首次开始购买金融资产以来，一些人深为纳税人的风险苦恼。美联储为提振金融体系而进行的私营债务购买可能发酵，如果利率上升，那么其通过印钞来购买的政府债券——即“量化宽松(QE)”——资产可能缩水。

 

The reality hasbeen happier. The fed’s assets have ballooned to nearly $3 trillion, mostly inTreasuries and mortgage-backed securities(MBS). It paid $89 billion in profitto the Treasury for 2012, the largest in a string of record-breakingremittances(see chart). Before the crisis, the Fed’s profits were typicallyonly a third of that.

而现实是乐观的。政府的资产已经激增到接近3万亿，大部分在财政部或以有财力支持的有价证券形式存在。2012年，财政部获得资产所得利润890亿美元，是近几年的一笔破纪录的支付。在危机之前，政府所得利润大概只有其三分之一。

（原文）现实倒是更为乐观，美联储资产已经升至近3万亿，大部分是国债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)，他们在2012年向美国财政部支付了890亿美元的利润，从图表可见，这是破历史纪录的数据，危机前美联储的利润仅为该水平的1/3。

 

The Fed makes itsmoney much as most banks do: from the spread between the return on its assetsand the interest paid on its liabilities. The Fed’s liabilities are principallymade up of currency in circulation, which pays no interest, and reserves, thecrash that commercial banks keep on deposit at the Fed. Since 2008 thesereserves has exploded to $1.6 trillion, on which the central bank pays only0.25% interest. The difference between that modest the cost and the averagereturn of about 3.5% on its bond holdings explains the whopping “seigniorage”,as the profit the Fed earns from printing money is called.

联邦政府使用和大多数银行类似的做法挣钱：来自资产收益率和债务的已付利息。 联邦的债务主要由流通的现金，这部分没有利息，以及储蓄，即商业银行定期存储在联邦的现金。从2008年开始，这些储蓄已经激增到了1.6万亿美元，中央银行为此仅仅支付0.25%的利息。价格的适中和证券财产3.5%的平均回报之间的差距解释了巨大的“seigniorage”，即联邦政府从印刷钞票中赚钱。

（原文）美联储从资产回报和债务利率支付间获得收益，这和大部分银行一样。美联储的债务主要由流通的货币(这不用支付任何利息)和商业银行存在美联储处的存款组成。自2008年以来，这些存款已经达到1.6万亿美元，而美联储只支付0.25%的利息。可忽略不计的成本和约3.5%的平均债券持有回报之间的差距解释了美联储巨大的“铸币特权”，也就是美联储通过印钞获得的利润。

 

Some Fed officialsworry about that comes next. When the Fed raised rates in the past, it meantlittle for profits because reserves were trivial and earned no interest. Since2008 the Fed has paid interest on reserves in order to maintain control ofinterest rates. So when the Fed eventually tightens monetary policy, it willhave to pay out more interest. To absorb reserves it may have to sell somebonds for less than what it paid, incurring capital losses. In theory, it couldend up losing money, a risk that grows the more bonds it buys.

一些联邦官员对这种行为的后果担忧。当联邦在过去提高利息时，这意味着低利润因为储蓄是琐碎的并且不赚钱。从2008年开始，为了保持对利息率的控制，联邦已经为储蓄支付了利息。因此如果联邦最终收紧货币政策，它将付出更多的利息。为了吸收储蓄它可能必须以低于原有价值的价格卖掉证券，使资本蒙受损失。理论上，它可能最终损失金钱，扩大了所买的证券的风险。

（原文）部分美联储官员担忧的是接下来的事情：当美联储升息，这意味着随着存款减少，利息没有导致的利润变少。自2008年以来美联储为了维持对利率的控制，已经向存款支付利率。因此当美联储最终收紧货币政策，其不得不支付更多利息。为了吸收存款他们不得不抛售部分债券来减少支付的资金，这将招致资本损失。理论而言美联储最终会亏损，该风险随着购买债券的量而递增。

 

 

 

 

In a recent paperfive Fed economists calculated that if the Fed buys $1 trillion of bonds thisyear and starts tightening in 2014, then the Fed’s profit will turn to loss by2017. Cumulative losses could eventually reach $40 billion, from higherinterest expenses and realized losses on MBS sales (the economists assume theFed will hold its Treasuries to maturity). If interest rates rise more sharplythan expected, loses could peak at $125 billion, and the Fed would pay noprofit for six years.

在最近的一个报告中，五个联邦经济学家计算到如果联邦政府今年购买了1万亿的证券并且在2014年采取紧缩政策，那么联邦的利润将到2017年才开始损失。累加的损失可能最终达到400亿美元，来自高利润的花费和出售MBS的损失（经济学家假设联邦政府将持有国库直到到期为止）。如果利息率增长的比预期更快，损失最大达到1250亿美元，联邦政府可能在六年内不付利息。

（原文）在近期的文献中，5位美联储经济学家计算，如果美联储今年购买1万亿美元的债券，并在2014年收紧货币政策，那么美联储将在2017年出现扭赢为亏的局面。从走高的利率支付和销售MBS的实际损失累计的损失最终可能达到400亿美元，而经济学家认为美联储会将国债持有至到期。如果利率超预期上升，损失可能达到1250亿美元的高峰，那么美联储可能6年难以获利。

For the governmentas a whole, these losses are less than meets the eye. The interest paid onreserves by the Fed partly substitutes for interest the Treasury would bepaying the public if its bonds were not held by the central bank. But it maystill worry some Fed officials, given the attacks it regularly endures fromRepublicans in Congress. “Being seen to have lost taxpayer money could onlyintensify pressures on the Fed, to the point where at least some of the centralbank’s independence could be put at risk,” says Roberto Peril, a former Fedeconomist now with ISI Group, a broker. He thinks some officials could beworried enough to oppose continuing QE once it reaches $1 trillion at the endof this year, even if the economy is not yet up to snuff.

整体对政府而言，损失还不够触目。联邦为储蓄支付的利息部分代替了国库支付给公共的利息，如果证券不是被中央银行持有。但是这仍然使联邦官员担心，因此经常遭受到来自国会的共和党批评。“损失纳税人的钱只可能增加对联邦政府的压力，关键点是至少一些中央银行的对立性将处于危险之中，”前联邦经济学家现在在ISI集团工作经纪人的罗伯特·佩里表示。他认为一些官员可能太担忧以至于当今年年底一旦达到1万亿美元时，就反对继续实行量化宽松政策，即使那时经济仍然没有回暖。

（原文）对政府整体而言，这些损失比眼前的要小。美联储为存款支付的利息，部分代替了财政部向公众支付的利息(如果债券持有人不是央行的话)。但鉴于来自国会共和党人的供给，这同样令一些美联储官员担心。前美联储经济学家、ISI Group交易员Roberto Perli表示，被发现纳税人的钱蒙受损失只会加剧美联储身上的压力，在某种程度上而言至少央行独立性可能存在被诟病的风险。他认为部分官员的担忧足以令其在今年年底宽松量达到1万亿后，反对继续实行QE，哪怕经济状况还不足够良好。

Whether suchconcerns would really blow the Fed off the course dictated by economiccircumstances is debatable, however. The Fed would not actually need a taxpayerinfusion. One of the perks of central banking is that it can print the moneyneeded to pay interest. If that generates a loss, it creates an offsetting “deferredasset” on its balance-sheet, representing future profits it won’t have to sendto the Treasury. The forgone profit would pale in comparison with totalinterest saved, higher tax revenue due to stronger growth and roughly $500billion of profit that QE had previously made possible. More importantly, thelosses would occur only once the economy was healthy enough to require higherinterest rates, which, after all, would be proof that QE had worked.

这些担忧是否会使联邦的政策偏离经济环境控制的轨道是不确定的。联邦可能不是真的需要纳税人的注资。中央银行的额外收入之一就是它可以印刷需要去支付利息的钞票。如果那导致了损失，它将在资产负债表上创造一个延期资产，代表了它不需要交给国库的的未来利息。这个利润和所有储蓄的利润相比是很少的，因为强劲增长的高税收和通过量化宽松使其成为可能的5000亿美元的利润。更加重要的是，损失只会在经济太健康以至于需要更高的利息率时发生，毕竟，这将证明量化宽松政策的生效。

（原文）不过无论类似的担忧会否撼动美联储的计划，美联储都不会真的需要纳税人的支付。央行的特权之一是可以通过印钞来支付利率。如果产生损失，央行可以抵消资产负债表上延递资产，这代表不用递交给财政部的未来利润。预先知晓的利润和省下来的总利息、强劲增长获得的高税收、以及此前实施QE生成的约5000亿美元利润比较，则相形黯淡。更为重要的是，只有经济足够健康，需要升息时才会产生损失，而这反而证明QE产生效果了。