国际贸易对经济增长的影响模拟：构建一个开放经济模型，包含国内消费、投资、政府支出和进出口。消费函数为 C = a + b(Y - T)，投资函数为 I = c + d(r)，政府支出 G 为外生变量，出口函数为 X = e - fP（e 为自发出口，f 为出口对国内价格 P 的敏感度），进口函数为 M = g + hY（g 为自发进口，h 为进口对总产出的敏感度）。设定初始参数 a = 100，b = 0.8，c = 50，d = -200，r = 0.05，T = 100，G = 200，e = 80，f = 5，g = 30，h = 0.1，P = 1。模拟国际贸易政策变化（如提高进口关税使进口函数变为 M = g + 0.08Y，或促进出口使出口函数变为 X = e - 3P）对总产出、贸易余额和经济增长的影响，分析不同政策下的经济动态变化。
import tkinter as tk
from tkinter import ttk
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from matplotlib.backends.backend_tkagg import FigureCanvasTkAgg
import numpy as np
from matplotlib.figure import Figure
# 设置matplotlib支持中文显示
plt.rcParams["font.family"] = ["SimHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Heiti TC"]
plt.rcParams["axes.unicode_minus"] = False # 解决负号显示问题
class EconomyModel:
def __init__(self):
# 模型参数
self.a = 100 # 自发消费
self.b = 0.8 # 边际消费倾向
self.c = 50 # 自发投资
self.d = -200 # 投资对利率的敏感度
self.r = 0.05 # 利率
self.T = 100 # 税收
self.G = 200 # 政府支出
self.e = 80 # 自发出口
self.f = 5 # 出口对价格的敏感度
self.g = 30 # 自发进口
self.h = 0.1 # 进口对收入的敏感度
self.P = 1 # 价格水平
# 模拟参数
self.time_steps = 30
self.current_step = 0
self.policy = "baseline" # baseline, tariff, export_promotion
# 存储结果
self.Y_history = []
self.NX_history = []
self.GDP_growth_history = []
# 初始化模型
self.initialize_model()
def initialize_model(self):
# 计算初始均衡
self.calculate_equilibrium()
# 初始化历史记录
self.Y_history = [self.calculate_equilibrium()]
self.NX_history = [self.calculate_net_exports()]
self.GDP_growth_history = [0] # 初始增长率为0
def calculate_equilibrium(self):
# 计算均衡产出 Y = C + I + G + NX
# NX = X - M
# 代入消费函数和净出口函数
# Y = a + b(Y-T) + c + d*r + G + (e - f*P - (g + h*Y))
# 整理后得到 Y = [a + c + d*r + G + e - f*P - g - b*T] / (1 - b + h)
numerator = self.a + self.c + self.d * self.r + self.G + self.e - self.f * self.P - self.g - self.b * self.T
denominator = 1 - self.b + self.h
return numerator / denominator
def calculate_consumption(self):
# 计算消费 C = a + b(Y-T)
return self.a + self.b * (self.Y_history[-1] - self.T)
def calculate_investment(self):
# 计算投资 I = c + d*r
return self.c + self.d * self.r
def calculate_net_exports(self):
# 计算净出口 NX = X - M
exports = self.e - self.f * self.P
# 根据当前政策调整进口函数
if self.policy == "tariff":
imports = self.g + 0.08 * self.Y_history[-1] # 关税政策减少边际进口倾向
else:
imports = self.g + self.h * self.Y_history[-1]
# 根据当前政策调整出口函数
if self.policy == "export_promotion":
exports = self.e - 3 * self.P # 出口促进政策降低价格敏感度
return exports - imports
def update_policy(self, policy):
self.policy = policy
self.current_step = 0
self.initialize_model()
def step(self):
if self.current_step >= self.time_steps:
return False
# 计算当前步骤的均衡产出
Y = self.calculate_equilibrium()
self.Y_history.append(Y)
# 计算净出口
NX = self.calculate_net_exports()
self.NX_history.append(NX)
# 计算GDP增长率
if len(self.Y_history) >= 2:
growth_rate = (Y / self.Y_history[-2] - 1) * 100 # 百分比
else:
growth_rate = 0
self.GDP_growth_history.append(growth_rate)
self.current_step += 1
return True
class EconomySimulationApp:
def __init__(self, root):
self.root = root
self.root.title("开放经济模型模拟")
self.root.geometry("1200x600")
self.model = EconomyModel()
# 创建左侧图表区域
self.graph_frame = ttk.Frame(root, width=800, height=600)
self.graph_frame.pack(side=tk.LEFT, fill=tk.BOTH, expand=True)
# 创建右侧信息区域
self.info_frame = ttk.Frame(root, width=400, height=600, padding=10)
self.info_frame.pack(side=tk.RIGHT, fill=tk.BOTH, expand=False)
# 创建图表
self.create_charts()
# 创建控制面板
self.create_control_panel()
# 创建信息面板
self.create_info_panel()
# 初始化图表
self.update_charts()
def create_charts(self):
# 创建三个图表
self.fig = Figure(figsize=(8, 10), dpi=100)
# 总产出图表
self.ax1 = self.fig.add_subplot(311)
self.ax1.set_title('总产出 (GDP)')
self.ax1.set_xlabel('时间')
self.ax1.set_ylabel('产出')
self.ax1.grid(True)
# 贸易余额图表
self.ax2 = self.fig.add_subplot(312)
self.ax2.set_title('贸易余额')
self.ax2.set_xlabel('时间')
self.ax2.set_ylabel('净出口')
self.ax2.grid(True)
# GDP增长率图表
self.ax3 = self.fig.add_subplot(313)
self.ax3.set_title('GDP增长率 (%)')
self.ax3.set_xlabel('时间')
self.ax3.set_ylabel('增长率')
self.ax3.grid(True)
# 将图表放置在Tkinter窗口中
self.canvas = FigureCanvasTkAgg(self.fig, master=self.graph_frame)
self.canvas.draw()
self.canvas.get_tk_widget().pack(fill=tk.BOTH, expand=True)
def create_control_panel(self):
control_frame = ttk.LabelFrame(self.info_frame, text="政策控制", padding=10)
control_frame.pack(fill=tk.X, pady=10)
# 政策选择
ttk.Label(control_frame, text="选择政策:").pack(anchor=tk.W)
self.policy_var = tk.StringVar(value="baseline")
policies = [
("基准情景", "baseline"),
("提高进口关税", "tariff"),
("促进出口", "export_promotion")
]
for text, value in policies:
ttk.Radiobutton(
control_frame,
text=text,
variable=self.policy_var,
value=value,
command=self.change_policy
).pack(anchor=tk.W, padx=10, pady=5)
# 模拟控制按钮
button_frame = ttk.Frame(control_frame)
button_frame.pack(fill=tk.X, pady=10)
ttk.Button(button_frame, text="单步模拟", command=self.step_simulation).pack(side=tk.LEFT, padx=5)
ttk.Button(button_frame, text="运行全部", command=self.run_simulation).pack(side=tk.LEFT, padx=5)
ttk.Button(button_frame, text="重置", command=self.reset_simulation).pack(side=tk.LEFT, padx=5)
def create_info_panel(self):
# 当前经济指标
self.stats_frame = ttk.LabelFrame(self.info_frame, text="当前经济指标", padding=10)
self.stats_frame.pack(fill=tk.X, pady=10)
# 政策效果分析
self.analysis_frame = ttk.LabelFrame(self.info_frame, text="政策效果分析", padding=10)
self.analysis_frame.pack(fill=tk.BOTH, expand=True, pady=10)
self.update_info_panel()
def update_info_panel(self):
# 清空现有信息
for widget in self.stats_frame.winfo_children():
widget.destroy()
for widget in self.analysis_frame.winfo_children():
widget.destroy()
# 显示当前经济指标
if self.model.Y_history:
current_step = len(self.model.Y_history) - 1
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"时间: {current_step}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"总产出: {self.model.Y_history[-1]:.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"贸易余额: {self.model.NX_history[-1]:.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"GDP增长率: {self.model.GDP_growth_history[-1]:.2f}%").pack(anchor=tk.W)
# 显示消费、投资、政府支出和净出口的构成
ttk.Separator(self.stats_frame).pack(fill=tk.X, pady=5)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text="支出构成:").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"消费: {self.model.calculate_consumption():.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"投资: {self.model.calculate_investment():.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"政府支出: {self.model.G:.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.stats_frame, text=f"净出口: {self.model.NX_history[-1]:.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
# 显示政策效果分析
if len(self.model.Y_history) > 1 and self.model.policy != "baseline":
baseline = self.model.Y_history[0]
current = self.model.Y_history[-1]
change = current - baseline
percent_change = (change / baseline) * 100
ttk.Label(self.analysis_frame, text=f"政策: {self.get_policy_name(self.model.policy)}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
ttk.Label(self.analysis_frame, text=f"总产出变化: {change:.2f} ({percent_change:.2f}%)").pack(anchor=tk.W)
baseline_nx = self.model.NX_history[0]
current_nx = self.model.NX_history[-1]
nx_change = current_nx - baseline_nx
ttk.Label(self.analysis_frame, text=f"贸易余额变化: {nx_change:.2f}").pack(anchor=tk.W)
# 分析政策影响
ttk.Separator(self.analysis_frame).pack(fill=tk.X, pady=5)
ttk.Label(self.analysis_frame, text="政策影响分析:").pack(anchor=tk.W)
if self.model.policy == "tariff":
analysis = [
"提高进口关税减少了进口倾向，",
"使得国内需求更多地转向国内产品，",
"从而刺激了总产出增长。",
"贸易余额通常会改善，因为进口减少。",
"然而，这可能导致贸易伙伴的报复，",
"长期来看可能损害经济效率。"
]
elif self.model.policy == "export_promotion":
analysis = [
"出口促进政策提高了出口竞争力，",
"增加了国外对本国产品的需求，",
"从而推动总产出增长。",
"贸易余额通常会改善，因为出口增加。",
"但可能面临贸易伙伴的反倾销措施。"
]
for line in analysis:
ttk.Label(self.analysis_frame, text=line).pack(anchor=tk.W)
def get_policy_name(self, policy_code):
policy_names = {
"baseline": "基准情景",
"tariff": "提高进口关税",
"export_promotion": "促进出口"
}
return policy_names.get(policy_code, policy_code)
def update_charts(self):
# 清空图表
self.ax1.clear()
self.ax2.clear()
self.ax3.clear()
# 设置标题和标签
self.ax1.set_title('总产出 (GDP)')
self.ax1.set_xlabel('时间')
self.ax1.set_ylabel('产出')
self.ax1.grid(True)
self.ax2.set_title('贸易余额')
self.ax2.set_xlabel('时间')
self.ax2.set_ylabel('净出口')
self.ax2.grid(True)
self.ax3.set_title('GDP增长率 (%)')
self.ax3.set_xlabel('时间')
self.ax3.set_ylabel('增长率')
self.ax3.grid(True)
# 绘制数据
if self.model.Y_history:
time_steps = list(range(len(self.model.Y_history)))
# 总产出图表
self.ax1.plot(time_steps, self.model.Y_history, 'b-', linewidth=2)
# 贸易余额图表
self.ax2.plot(time_steps, self.model.NX_history, 'g-', linewidth=2)
self.ax2.axhline(y=0, color='r', linestyle='--') # 添加零水平线
# GDP增长率图表
self.ax3.plot(time_steps, self.model.GDP_growth_history, 'r-', linewidth=2)
self.ax3.axhline(y=0, color='k', linestyle='--') # 添加零水平线
# 调整布局
self.fig.tight_layout()
# 刷新画布
self.canvas.draw()
def change_policy(self):
policy = self.policy_var.get()
self.model.update_policy(policy)
self.update_charts()
self.update_info_panel()
def step_simulation(self):
if self.model.step():
self.update_charts()
self.update_info_panel()
else:
print("已完成所有模拟步骤")
def run_simulation(self):
while self.model.step():
self.update_charts()
self.update_info_panel()
self.root.update_idletasks() # 更新UI
self.root.after(100) # 暂停100毫秒，使动画可见
def reset_simulation(self):
policy = self.policy_var.get()
self.model.update_policy(policy)
self.update_charts()
self.update_info_panel()
if __name__ == "__main__":
root = tk.Tk()
# 设置中文字体
default_font = tk.font.nametofont("TkDefaultFont")
default_font.configure(family="SimHei", size=10)
root.option_add("*Font", default_font)
app = EconomySimulationApp(root)
root.mainloop()
扫一扫
被折叠的 条评论
为什么被折叠?
到【灌水乐园】发言
